I hate to tell you, folks, but Matt Festa and Stephen Vogt are getting the last word again.
In 2025, there was angst about how often Vogt went to Matt Festa out of the bullpen. But, Festa had a good season at 4.12 ERA/3.46 xERA/3.14 FIp/3.71 xFIP including finishing his last 28 innings with a 3.33 ERA/3.02 xERA/3.02 FIP/2.95 xFIP and a 12/2 K/BB/9. Festa was good as a middle reliever and it was another example of fans hating the middle reliever they see the most becase their few failures are far more
memorable than their more frequent successes. From Bryan Shaw to Festa, this is a tough role to fill.
Festa had a very poor start to the season, leading even me – a staunch Festa defender – to wonder if the magic had faded away from his revitilization under the watchful eye of Carl Willis and if the team should move on. But, Stephen Vogt continued to pitch Festa, and in some spots that mattered so that Festa’s 56 innings are commensurate with usage numbers for some of the elite set-up men in MLB. Is Vogt’s choice justified?
Look at Festa’s 2026 overall numbers: 3.70 ERA/3.76 xERA/3.44 FIP/3.86 xFIP and 9.96/2.57 K/BB/9. This is a solid relief arm. It’s not a fireman, it’s not the high leverage ideal. But, this is an excellent sixth inning option.
NOW, look at Festa’s numbers over the past month (15 innings): 1.23 ERA/2.35 xERA/1.79 FIP/3.23 xFIP with a 10.43/1.84 K/BB/9. These are, in fact, fireman numbers and a guy whom you could put in the biggest spots and have a good chance of him coming through.
The big change for Festa is that he has begun to see more typical results while throwing his sweeper. This pitch was 7 runs above average in 2025 and until the past month, it was, objectively, a terrible pitch at 6 runs below average. In August, it has been a league average pitch. Festa LEANS on the sweeper, pitching a four-seamer or slider about 93% of the time (mixing with a sinker to keep hitters off balance). The pitch, by the metrics, looks slightly better in shape and design than in 2025. It’s mostly its location that threw Festa off with it to begin the year. Now, he has been locating the sweeper, enabling him to spot his above average four-seamer to miss barrels.
I thought it might make sense to bench Steven Kwan to help him work through things. Vogt stuck with him and now has the best hitter in MLB over the past six weeks. I was ready to risk a Festa DFA. Vogt stuck with him and now has, seemingly, an even better version of him than last year for the stretch run. It’s just a reminder that when you think you’re being patient enough to know ball… it’s time to be even more patient than you think.
Plus, Matt Festa has an owl. Don’t doubt guys who are falconers for owls. Owlers? Let’s workshop this.
