Northwestern is coming off an incredible high after its final game at Martin Stadium, beating Colorado 41-7. Multiple players had masterful performances, including redshirt senior running back Joseph Himon II’s three-touchdown performance, as well as senior quarterback Aidan Chiles scoring five in total, which netted him Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week. Northwestern’s defense also had a strong performance, forcing four turnovers.
However, repeating this level of performance against No. 5 Indiana
will be a nearly impossible task for the ’Cats.
The Hoosiers have started the season 3-0, albeit against weak competition such as Howard and North Texas. Despite this, the defending national champions have looked dominant.
Senior quarterback Josh Hoover, a transfer from TCU, has looked exceptional to start the season, throwing for 10 touchdowns while completing 72.5% of his passes. His job has been made relatively easy with a stellar receiver corps headlined by junior wide receiver Charlie Becker. Combining this with a lethal running back tandem in junior Turbo Richard and redshirt senior Lee Beebe Jr. and a superb offensive line, Indiana’s offense looks unstoppable.
But the Wildcats can’t just worry about the offensive side of the ball, as the IU defense is arguably the best in the nation. In terms of total defense, IU ranks No. 6 while only allowing one touchdown on the year so far. They have forced five turnovers so far, including three interceptions and two fumble recoveries.
To sum it up, Indiana is elite.
Despite the overall strong performance by the Wildcats against Colorado, there are multiple things the Hoosiers will hope to take advantage of.
Firstly, NU’s run defense looked incredibly weak. The Wildcats gave up an average of 5.5 yards per carry to Colorado, and Indiana averages above that number: 5.67 yards a carry. Some may point out that NU was able to force two fumbles on run plays last Saturday, but those can mostly be attributed to the wet conditions and a lack of discipline on Colorado’s end. IU knows this and is going to run the ball relentlessly. And if Northwestern is ever able to slow down the Indiana rush offense, it has to deal with a lethal passing offense.
Northwestern’s pass defense has not been tested at all this year in terms of competition, to say the least. The team gives up, on average, 5.88 yards per pass play. Now, imagine the opposition isn’t Colorado’s Julian Lewis throwing to Joseph Williams out there, but rather Hoover and Becker.
Indiana currently averages 17.56 yards per completion, a figure that places them second in the nation. Indiana is going to use its strong run game to set up play action shots with deep crossing routes and get Hoover on the move. The straight dropback game will also be lethal, given that Becker is one of the best contested-catch artists in the nation, complemented by options like junior wide receiver Nick Marsh and senior wide receiver Shazz Preston. The passing offense is stacked with weapons and will almost certainly be too much for NU’s defense to handle.
It is also difficult to imagine a world where NU is able to keep pace with Indiana offensively. The ‘Cats love to run the ball; they have run the ball 82 of the 128 snaps they have had, averaging 5.0 yards a carry. This won’t be easy to do against Indiana, as it only allows 2.46 yards per carry. And despite being an explosive passing offense that averages 11.17 yards per attempt, Northwestern has only passed the ball 46 times. This is because the pass game hinges on their run game through setting up play action and run-pass options. Northwestern isn’t going to have an easy time finding those explosives through the air if the Indiana run defense continues to look as impressive as it has. This limits the offense and will prevent NU from scoring many points.
However, if the Wildcats want to seize a path to victory, they have to control possessions. Northwestern being able to force four turnovers against Colorado was the primary reason it was able to win that game. Not only that, but controlling the ball for 37 minutes and forcing Colorado to an average time of possession of just under two minutes will be exactly what the Wildcats need to do if they see a path to winning this game. Forcing Hoover to throw interceptions by disguising coverages and bringing pressure, looking to strip the ball and forcing three-and-outs will need to be the top priority for the defense. Meanwhile, the offense needs to look to stay ahead of sticks with long, methodical drives with short runs and a quick dropback game that results in touchdowns, not field goals.
Any way you look at it, NU is going to have an uphill battle to climb on Friday. The ‘Cats are outgunned and outmatched at almost every position, and key injuries to the offensive line in the first two games of the season certainly will not help. The Wildcats come in as 21-point underdogs according to DraftKings, and it’s easy to see why. Without everything going the ‘Cats’ way, it’s hard to envision a world where they come out on top.
