Our peerless football editor, Josh Matejka, asked me that.
I didn’t have an answer with any sort of proof.
So now I’m going through the proof.
Welcome! Take this journey with me, won’t you?
First, let’s take a look at that 2018 receiving corps
If you don’t remember the 2018 campaign, here’s a quick run down:
- 12th overall in SP+, 8th-ranked offense, 25th-ranked defense, 51st-ranked special teams
- Went 8-5 (4-4) with a 2-3 record in one-score games.
- Drew Lock (quarterback) and Terry Beckner, Jr. (defensive tackle) were drafted at the conclusion of the season.
- According to SP+, is considered the 3rd-best Missouri team put on the field since 2000, behind 2008 and 2007.
A big answer to “why was the offense so good” is the guy at quarterback who was drafted in the 2nd-round and recently won a Super Bowl ring. But obviously there’s more to go into than just that.
Here’s what the quarterbacks (aka Lock) did:
Man…I miss elite
passing offenses. And not in a snarky “I hate Drinkwitz ball” kind of way. Awesome passing offenses just make me happy. Anyway.
Lock regressed from his frantic 2017 passing numbers but that was always going to be the case once offensive coordinator Josh Heupel left for UCF and Barry Odom replaced him with a bag of farts. That bag prefers to go by the name of Derek Dooley. I won’t be typing that name again.
But Lock was still excellent. Nearly 3,500 yards through the air with a solid 7.6 ANY/A while producing 167 1st downs and getting sacked at less than a 3% rate is a coach’s dream scenario.
I want to break it down a little further though. Credit where it’s due, I’m cribbing from Pro Football Focus on the metrics at the end that I don’t usually track. Whatever your opinion of PFF, it’s correct so no use yelling at me, but I’m using it for everybody in this piece so it will at least be consistent.
First thing I want to point out is “Big Time Throws”. It’s an “opinion stat” by every definition but PFF defines it as “a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window” and Lock was producing a Big Time Throw 7% of the time. Keep that number in mind.
The other stat to point out is the “average depth of target”. While that is mostly self explanatory, the easiest description is how far down field the target was when the quarterback’s pass hits him, which counts completions and drops. Lock average 9.3 yards down field. Bookmark that one, too.
Drew was pressured 103 times but was only sacked 13 times which is an elite-tier ratio, but did suffer from a nearly 9% drop rate from his catchy-boys. Just imagine how many more yards he would have logged if that drop rate was cut in half!
To summarize, this is the profile of a quarterback with excellent pocket presence, elite pocket maneuverability, and a willingness (and arm) to hit guys downfield.
Speaking of those guys, here’s what the 2018 receivers did:
You can see by position tendencies that Johnathon Johnson was the slot, Emanuel Hall and Jalen Knox were your outside guys, and Albert O floated between attached tight end and slot receiver while Kendall Blanton was the more traditional tight end. The passing attack basically went like this: Lock would hit Johnson at a high clip, float some bombs to Hall, and then weave in some targets to Albert O to soften up any zone coverage and/or mismatches. He spread the ball around decently as well; I only included guys with over 10 targets but that still managed to be 10 different targets who got involved over the year.
The big things to look at here:
- YAC (yards after catch): 39% of total passing yards came after the catch.
- Average Depth of Target: on average Drew was targeting this batch of receivers 12.5 yards past the line of scrimmage. The four most targeted guys averaged 8.3 (Johnson-slot), 20.3 (Hall-X), 13.9 (Knox-Z), and 7.4 (Albert O, TE).
- Contested Targets and Catches: yes you need solid routes and good quarterback play, but you also need a receiver to body up his defender and haul in a ball while hand fighting a scrappy corner. I don’t know what is “average” or “good” in this case but Missouri receivers had 83 contested targets with 31 contested catches, good for 37.3%.
This offense was less predicated on explosive plays than the 2017 iteration…but still very reliant on them. They were much more efficient than previous Lock teams – which is why the offense ranked so high – and that nearly perfect blend of efficiency and explosion made it one of the best offense the Tigers have produced. The passing game, specifically, relied on a heavy use of slot receivers (and tight ends playing slot) but was also able to generate explosive passing plays (thanks mostly to Hall), as well as get good usage out of the running back passing game.
It was great, but my first response to Josh’s question is “was the 2018 offense even the best passing offense of the past ten years?”. Because, friends, let me show you another way to field an elite passing offense.
Say hello to the 2023 passing offense
Remember Brady Cook? No, not 2022 Brady Cook. No, not even 2024 Brady Cook. I’m talking…
(/whispering in hushed tones)
(eyes darting around, looking for eavesdroppers)
…that good stuff, that 2023 Brady Cook.
Look at it.
LOOK AT IT.
No, the raw stats aren’t better than 2018 Lock, other than completion percentage and interceptions. And the “Big Time Throws” are 1.1% worse than Lock.
But the ANY/A is better. And do you see what else is better?
Yeah.
Oh yeah. Not a typo.
AVERAGE DEPTH OF TARGET IS HIGHER.
FOR BRADY COOK. OVER DREW LOCK.
How can that be? Well, check out the receivers:
Theo Wease, Mookie Cooper, Mekhi Miller, and Marquis Johnson were all in the double digits of average depth of target. They ran deeper routes more often and Cook was willing to target them at that range more often.
Did Cook do that in ‘22? No (8.5). Did Cook do that in ‘24? Yes (9.7). Did Pribula do that in ‘25? No (7.5). Remember, this is counting passes that didn’t connect as well.
But as much as the Eli Drinkwitz/Kirby Moore/Brady Cook get flak for not going deep, THEY WENT DEEP. More frequently than Lock, in fact! And while Lock was making Big Time Throws and forcing his receivers to fight through 83 contested targets, Cook offered up a manageable 53 contested targets with 30 contested catches, a much better clip of 56.6% contested catch rate.
Remember those numbers I asked you to remember about Lock? 9.3 ADOT, 37.3% CC, YAC as 39% of total passing yardage? Well Cook beat the ADOT by 0.3, had a way higher CC% as I just reviewed and the YAC?
Friends, 62.5% of 2023’s total passing yardage came after the catch.
However, that’s mostly a product of Luther Burden providing 724 yards of that, aka over 50% of what the 2018 receiving corps did as a full unit.
Still, the 2023 passing offense was elite because of a couple of things:
- The ability to attempt (and complete) big plays downfield.
- Avoiding contested catches.
- Making contested catches when they happened.
- Having a YAC king at the slot to make crappy little short throws look awesome.
Is all of that because they had Luther Burden? Yeah, probably, But 2024 had Luther Burden and they weren’t nearly as explosive so…I don’t know.
The ‘18 and ‘23 passing offenses were some of the best of the respective seasons while managing to offer altering blue prints on how to create an elite passing offense. Either:
- via a NFL-caliber quarterback who’s able to spread the ball out to all types of receivers, OR
- via elite play makers at receiver who can make your quarterback better.
So…does the 2026 offense have either of those options? Both of those options? Let’s take a look:
This is what Missouri has to offer in 2026
At quarterback, there are realistically three options. Here are those options with their 2025 stats:
Small sample sizes, thy name is the 2026 Missouri Quarterback Room. Nick Evers is the old guy backup who hasn’t done much but has learned the most, Matt Zollers is the toddler in the room who’s just figuring out how to run, and Austin Simmons is the clear talent that has yet to start and finish a season. But Zollers and Simmons have the ADOT that we’re looking for, and Simmons has the Big Time Throw percentage that’s even better than noted NFL quarterback Drew Lock. Also, Simmons’ ANY/A is 8.9. I’d be happy with that.
We’ve seen Zollers play and you can watch Simmons’ Ole Miss highlights on the internet: they both like to throw it deep. And they’re both on a team that has done the deep-ball throwing for two years but, uh, not so much last year.
But what do all the new receivers bring to the table? Again, here’s what Mizzou has based on ‘25 numbers:
Cayden Lee is the slot, no doubt about it. Goodie and Olugbode will be on the outside, whoever is assigned X or Z will be figured out later (but Olugbode is probably X as that tends to be your best receiver). Brett Norfleet and Jordon Harris will be your tight ends, Jude James is a fun utility guy, and then there’s a whole bunch of “I dunno, man” after that.
Let’s break it down by position:
For the slot: does Lee have the YAC like Luther? 250 YAC yards to 632 overall yards is nearly 40% which doesn’t indicate a Burden-esque approach to playing receiver. If that bums you out, take note: he profiles as a much more efficient AND explosive version of Johnathon Johnson. He also has a 50% win rate on contested throws. That’s cool. I like that.
For the “f-it-he’s-down-there-somewhere” receiver: does Goodie have the efficiency to make this a viable option? Deep ball artists will always have crummier catch rates than slots or mid-range flankers because of the difficulty of connecting deep, but Emanuel Hall made it worth it because he had a 63% catch rate overall, and a 14.3 yards per target to go with the 22.4 yards per catch. Goodie hasn’t show that yet. His 50%, 52.5%, and 55.8% three-year catch rates are quite a bit lower than 63% and, therefore, make those deep balls less likely to be a go-to. Do you know who was a deep ball threat with a catch rate under 60%? Marquis Johnson. It’s tough. And if Goodie needs to be that reliable deep threat that catch rate will have to go up. As does his 36% win rate on contested catches.
For the outside receiver: does Olugbode have Wease’s win-rate and drop rate? If nothing else was working Cook would look to Wease to at least keep the ball moving forward at worse, or turn a bad play into something more at best. That meant high-pointing balls and catching through traffic. It also meant not getting a case of the dropsies at any point. Olugbode’s 58% win-rate is pretty close to Wease’s 66% win-rate in ‘23, while Olugbode has yet to shame us with a drop in his career.
By going through this exercise I’ve now found myself excited about 2 of the 3 potential starters at receiver, and the problem with the 3rd could easily get to where it needs to be.
The problem, of course, is that there isn’t a ton of experience behind them. I included all receivers in the 0226 batch, not just the ones with over 10 targets last year, and it was still a list that was shorter than 2018’s “only more than ten targets” sheet. So we should all hope that all three of these guys show up/improve and don’t get hurt, OR have a guy who hasn’t seen the field much develop into a competent starter-caliber receiver this offseason.
Conclusion
Missouri has two quarterbacks with a propensity to hit big shots like Lock. They have two (potential) starting receivers that have shown an ability to produce at a level/role previously seen on other elite passing Tiger offenses. But they’re limited by their depth and the fact that Chip f***ing Lindsey is the offensive coordinator, and he doesn’t like throwing the ball deep. Or much at all.
Which philosophy wins out? I don’t know!
Should be exciting!
