Compare these two offensive slash lines— (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS) wRC+
.240 / .324/ .461 / .785 (wRC+ 122)
.258 / .345 / .500 / .845 (wRC+ 133)
The top line is Christian Walker’s pre-season projection as developed for Fangraphs’ depth chart. The second line is Christian Walker’s offensive stats for the second half of 2025. So basically Walker’s performance so far in the second half of the season exceeds the seasonal rate stats we expected before the season began. Walker has also shown more power in the seccond
half with a .242 ISO vs. a .222 projected ISO.
However, for Walker, it’s been a tale of two halves. His 1st half wRC+ was a disappointing 84, but his second half so far is a surprisingly high 133. Over his career, Walker has performed better in the second half vs. the first half. His career splits for OPS and wRC+: first half .773 / 108 second half .794 / 113. We will see if he can maintain his current offensive pace through the remainder of the second half.
I will also review the second half performances of Jose Altuve, Yainer Diaz, and Cam Smith.
Yainer Diaz
Yainer Diaz joined Christian Walker as the most notable under-performers of the first half 2025. Diaz has increased his offense in the second half, but the second half still falls short of the offensive rate stats we expected from Diaz before the season began. Diaz’s first half wRC+ was 88 and his second half wRC+ is 100 so far. The pre-season projection for Diaz is compared to his current second half rate stats:
(BA/OBP/SLG/OPS) wRC+
Projection .279 / .313 / .454 / .767 (117)
Second Half .275 / .296 / .442 / .738 (100)
Even though Diaz increased his offensive rates in the second half, the rates still falls substantially short of the pre-season projection. A 17 point under-performance in wRC+ is disappointing. Although Diaz’s second half batting average is close to the projection, his second half OBP continues to be quite low. The fact that Diaz’s walk rate has declined to 3.2% in the second half contributes to the low OBP. Of course, Yainer can still improve his second half slash line in the remaining 35 days. The Fangraphs Rest of Season (ROS) projection for Diaz expects a slight improvement in his wRC+ to 104 over the remainder of the season.
Jose Altuve
At age 35, fans sometimes express concern that Atuve’s offense will decline significantly. But the offensive rate stats don’t show much evidence of that happening. Altuve’s first half and second half offensive stats are pretty close to the same. The offensive rates decline somewhat in the second half, but not by much. His first half OPS and wRC+ : .801, 120. His second half OPS and wRC+ so far: .779, 116.
Even though the second half numbers are slightly lower than the first half, Altuve’s second half rate stats are better than expected based on his pre-season projection.
(BA/OBP/SLG/OPS)
Projection .269 / .337 / .482/ .769
Second Half ,273 / .347 / .432 / .779
The OPS is somewhat better than initially projected, but this is mostly due to a high batting average and BB% (9.5% vs. 8.3% projected) which leads to a higher than projected OBP. Altuve’s SLG is lower than projected.
Altuve has been relatively consistent this season, and he is an important element of the lineup, assuming he continues his second half rate stats. The ROS depth chart stats expect a .771 OPS going forward.
Cam Smith
Cam Smith was one of the feel good stories of the first half. A 22 year old who played very little minor league ball and manning right field for the first time excelled in the first half of 2025. He looked like a core player for the future—and frankly he still does.
Cam Smith hit for a 116 wRC+ and .765 OPS in the first half. But his offense has been dreadful in the second half, with a 10 wRC+ and .389 OPS . His second half slash line below:
(BA/OBP/SLG/OPS)
.140 / .209 / .180 / .389
The Fangraphs depth chart foresees improvement over the remainder of the second half, but it’s more like regression toward the mean than movement toward the productive slash line of the first half. Given that his BABIP over the second half (.206) is likely unsustainably low, there is a reasonable basis to expect some beneficial regression movement.
Rest of Season
Projection .240 / ,309 / .368 / .677
So why has Cam Smith spiraled in the second half? Has he hit a wall, the popular phrase for rookies who seem to have been overwhelmed by first year issues like fatigue or falling confidence? Smith has never experienced a season close to a 162 game major league season. So, fatigue could be a factor. But I think the most straightforward explanation lies in the typical rookie experience. Major league pitchers and their advanced scouts or analytics coaches keep trying to pinpoint a rookie hitter’s weakness. If at first they don’t succeed, they will try probing other weaknesses. Once a pitcher is successful, others will copy their approach. The rookie hitter has to constantly adjust. Cam Smith seemed to be adjusting well in the first half of the season But maybe Cam has experienced difficulties adjusting to the latest pitching plans. Perhaps it is some combination of that process as well as fatigue.
Whatever the cause, it will be interesting to see how the Astros management responds to Smith’s current performance. His hitting is a drag on the Astros’ batting lineup. Perhaps they give him more rest on the bench and continue to let him plug along at the major league level, hoping that he begins to turn it around. However, an argument can also be made for sending Cam to Sugar Land for a couple of weeks or so. This would allow him to work on adjusting his offense in a less pressurized atmosphere. If the alternative is resting him at the major league level on the bench, that probably isn’t the best course for developing the promising young hitter. He needs to be playing every day to develop his batting approach. But can they afford that at the major league level when the team is in a fight for the AL West division crown?
Thoughts?
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