It’s pitching preview time, ladies and gentlemen. Over the next several days, I’ll be writing 10,000 words or so about everyone you might see pitching for the Red Sox to start the season.
We’re done with the rotation options and are moving on to the bullpen. We’ll start at the back, with the high-leverage options.Aroldis Chapman
Aroldis Chapman is coming off arguably the best season of his career, believe it or not. He posted a 1.17 ERA over 67 appearances. He was so good that it’s almost impossible for him to repeat
that performance, and that’s okay. If he’s even 90% of the pitcher he was in 2025, he’s still one of the game’s best closers.
The key for Chapman is throwing strikes. Last season, he posted a career low 6.6% walk rate. I still have a hard time believing that he was able to start locating for the first time in his career because he actaully started aiming, but whatever the reason for his newfound control, it made him virtually unhittable. His fastballs, a four-seam and sinker, are what he’s known for. They averaged 98 and 99 mph, respectively,
He used a fastball and sinker most frequently; they averaged 98 and 99 mph, respectively, and had strike rates of 74% and 67%. The four-seam had a swinging strike rate of 15.6%, while the sinker had an insane 21.5% swinging strike rate. Those two pitches accounted for about 75% of his offerings, with more four-seams early and sinkers late. Ahead in counts, he turned to a slider that was untouchable, returning a 34% putaway rate and a whiff on about one in every three pitches. He also used a splitter that caused hitters to chase at a 42% rate and whiff on one in every four pitches. The stuff is overpowering, and Chapman was in the zone enough to harness it. It’ll be hard for him to post another 1.17 ERA, but he’ll handle the ninth inning as long as he’s healthy.
Garrett Whitlock
As dominant as Aroldis Chapman was in 2025, the mere fact that he’s Aroldis Chapman is inherently nerve-wracking. He could throw nothing but strikes for two months straight, I’d still be slightly afraid he’ll completely lose control and start handing out walks to everyone. With Garrett Whitlock, that isn’t the case.
Whitlock moved back to the bullpen full-time in 2025 and made 62 appearances with a 2.25 ERA. From August 19 through the end of the regular season, he didn’t allow an earned run. I will not be elaborating on what happened in the postseason.
He was equally effective against both sides of the plate, holding both lefties and righties to an OPS below .600. He both struck out and walked more righties, but the differences were negligible. Whitlock is a strike-throwing machine. Each of his three pitches hold a strike rate over 65%, led by his sinker at 70%. The sinker, due to its shape, functions more like a four-seam fastball. It has two-plane movement with high velocity and elite extension that allows it to miss bats at the top of the zone. Righties see his sinker about 50% of the time, while lefties see it about 40%. He utilizes a slider and a changeup as secondary pitches, 31% and 21%, respectively.
Against righties, Whitlock goes to his slider most often, and it was excellent. The two-strike chase rate was 35% while the putaway rate was 30%. He’s also one of the few pitchers on the Red Sox staff who utilizes a changeup against same-handed hitters. They predominantly came with two strikes, but he’d occasionally flip one in early to steal a strike. It was a solid offering and got righties to expand the zone, but was fouled off more than he’d like in two-strike counts. I’m probably nitpicking, but his pitch plot shows he might have been in the zone or too near the zone, costing him whiffs. As I write this, I realize I’m criticizing a pitcher with a 30% strikeout rate. Ignore me.
Alright, focus back up. We’ve still got his approach against lefties to talk about. Lefties swing and miss at his sinker often, though the contact is louder when they do connect. His changeup is his go-to secondary pitch, and it’s mostly great. It generated a chase rate near 50%, an 18% swinging strike rate, and a paltry 20% ideal contact rate. I say it was “mostly” great because of its performance with two strikes. In 54 two-strike counts, he only recorded three strikeouts. Despite good locations, lefties either fouled the ball off or took pitches just off the plate. His changeup is the only pitch he throws away from lefties, so throwing low two-strike fastballs might be able to freeze opponents and make them respect the changeup. Again, I’m nitpicking a 30% strikeout rate pitcher, but it is a place to improve. Regardless of the changeup’s ineffectiveness in putting hitters away, his fastball and slider each pulled their weight. Each pitch had a putaway rate of 25%, allowing him to keep that strikeout rate high.
Whitlock was one of the most reliable relievers in baseball and should continue to be in 2026.
Around the Division
David Bednar (NYY)
David Bednar was born in Pittsburgh and went to high school in Eastern Pennsylvania before moving across the state to play college ball at Lafayette College. He walked out to Renegade by Styx when closing games for the Pirates, and they still traded him to the Yankees. Kinda messed up if you ask me.
Bednar’s arsenal is similar to Craig Kimbrel’s. It’s high 90s fastballs up, and then he’ll pull the string with a 75 mph in the dirt and make you look like an idiot. He struggled for a stretch in 2025 and was briefly demoted to the minor leagues, but was completely dominant upon returning. I’d love to be a fan of his, but he was forced to put on pinstripes, so I’ll wait until 2027 when he becomes a free agent.
Jeff Hoffman (TOR)
Hoffman was up and down in 2025, most notably allowing a game-tying home run in the ninth inning of Game 7 of the World Series. His fastball, slider, and splitter each miss bats at a high rate, but the fastball in particular was hit hard in 2025. Walks were an issue as well; Hoffman handed out free passes to 9.4% of hitters. He also surrendered 15 home runs, although his 37.5% home run per fly ball rate should regress to the mean in 2026. While he’s slotted in as the Blue Jays’ closer now, he might be on a short leash to begin the season.
Ryan Helsley (BAL)
Ryan Helsley comes over to the American League East after spending the second half of the season with the New York Mets, where he really struggled. He throws as hard as anyone, but opponents were able to handle his fastball last season. While his four-seam has always allowed some hard contact, 2025 was an outlier in terms of ideal contact rate. His slider is excellent, returning a 23% swinging strike rate. The Orioles paid him like a closer, so the ninth inning is likely his to lose to start the season. He’s a major bounce-back candidate after a rocky 2025 season.
Edwin Uceta/Griffin Jax (TBR)
Pete Fairbanks took off for Miami, so the Rays have an opening at the back of their bullpen. While they likely won’t have a designated closer, Edwin Uceta and Griffin Jax are two names likely to get late-game opportunities. Uceta throws a flat fastball from a near-sidearm release with a crazy delivery that gives hitters a really difficult time, and follows it up with a changeup with great fade. He gets a ton of strikeouts, but was prone to the home run ball in 2025. He also has a lingering shoulder injury that puts his status for opening day in question.
Jax came over from the Twins, and I have no idea why Minnesota let him go. His sweeper and changeup each have swinging strike rates over 20%, while his fastball has a solid shape and great velocity. He leaves the ball over the plate some, which was punished in 2025, but his strikeout numbers are off the charts. It seems that the Rays want to use him in the bullpen, but you could convince me that he could succeed in a rotation. He’ll also represent Team USA during the World Baseball Classic.
