‘Tis the season for cheesy, feel-good, family friendly movies. You know, the kind where the main characters are introduced, some kind of crisis occurs, they have to overcome obstacles and trials, and somehow
it all works out in the end for a happily ever after. Technically, the Celtics have already gone through all those stages and the credits rolled after the 2024 championship. But like any good IP, there’s always a sequel to look forward to!
The cast of characters is familiar, with a few re-castings along the way. The challenges are familiar but with a new twist. Jayson Tatum’s injury was the needle-scratch moment, and the whole fanbase has been coming to grips with that plot twist for the past 5 months.
But you know what comes next, right? The good guys band together, develop a plan, and work tirelessly throughout the montage backed by an inspiring soundtrack. That’s the part of the movie we’re in right now. I can’t wait for the moment when the missing character that was assumed lost, makes a triumphant return to help the cast of characters to another happy ending.
Of course that’s assuming this is one of those feel good movies. Real life doesn’t always play out like that. Just a few weeks ago, there was a reasonable path towards “tanking” this season as a “Gap year.” I use quote-marks because those are trigger words and may have different definitions depending on who you are talking to. However, things are turning out right and the Celtics are winning at a higher clip than just about anyone had expected. (Ok, for you die-hards that always believed, feel free to take your victory lap now.)
But what now? Where do we go from here? When the training montage ends, what is the needle-drop plot twist that’s coming next? I’m glad you asked (and even more glad that you made it through that too-long lead-in to get to the meat of the article).
The question of the hour is this: Should Brad Stevens look to be a buyer and make the team better this season? Or should he “keep the powder dry” and wait to make significant moves next summer? The answer is (annoyingly) almost always “it depends” but for the sake of discussion we’ll look at some of the options.
As most of you are aware, December 15th is the date that most players signed as free agents this past summer are eligible to be traded. This marks the unofficial start of trade rumor season which runs through the deadline (Feb 5th at 3PM). So if you’ve been playing with the Spotrac Trade Machine, you’ve probably noticed that some players are greyed out as being ineligible to be traded. (Hint: You can adjust the settings to either remove restrictions or put it in “trade deadline mode.”)
Last summer Stevens slashed salaries and focused on bringing in cheaper rotation players. That opened up opportunities for players to step forward and grow into larger roles. Neemias Queta and Jordan Walsh in particular have stepped up considerably and newcomers Josh Minott and Hugo Gonzalez have stepped up as well. It hasn’t worked out (thus far) as positively for Chris Boucher or Luka Garza, but there’s still time. Those positive developments have set the stage for Stevens to potentially make a move or two at the deadline and take advantage of a wide open Eastern Conference.
Looming over everything is the eventual return of Jayson Tatum. The team has been wisely cautious and tight lipped about everything. The training videos paint an optimistic view of Jayson’s progress and all reports indicate that he wants to return this year. Of course the team won’t let him on the court until he’s 100% cleared to play and even then they might take some extra time to ramp him up. What he looks like after the injury is anyone’s guess, but even an 80% version of Tatum is a high impact addition.
So how many chips should Brad Stevens push into the middle of the table? We’ve gone over the assets the team has at their disposal (including most of their own draft picks and Anfernee Simons’ expiring salary). Many have assumed the team would make a move to dip under the 1st apron and avoid the luxury tax this season. That would probably be wise since they are so close to doing so. But only if it makes sense and positions them for success later.
Warning: Cap nerd stuff ahead. If the Celtics want to get out of the repeater tax penalties, not only do they have to reduce salary by about $4M this season (before the end of the season – basically by the trade deadline), but they would also have to stay under the 1st apron next season as well (the tax is triggered when you are above the apron for 3 out of 4 years). That wouldn’t be too hard considering that the Celtics are currently projected to be $29.7M under the apron next season. So there’s still room to add pieces for next year and duck the tax if possible.
For example, if you were to put Anfernee Simons into a trade for Ivica Zubac, you also need Brook Lopez’s salary to make it work. That deal actually saves the Celtics $800K this season but it adds $28.7M of salary for next season. Still under the 1st apron, but with a lot fewer options to improve after that. In theory, they could re-route Lopez to another team or move him in the offseason, but that might cost a pick or another asset to make happen. Also, you’d still need to dump some salary to slip under the 1st apron this year. You can see how hard this is because of the ripple effects of any deal.
The other course they could take is finding a smaller deal to dip below the tax this year and then letting the Simons contract expire this offseason. They have a $22.5M TPE they could use to trade for another high salary player – effectively replacing Simons on the books.
Of course the tax might not be that big of a deal if the ownership group is willing to pay it. They just invested big in the team and could be motivated to keep a good thing going once Tatum is back and healthy.
The key thing is getting impactful players. If they are worth the salaries both now and into the future and they are worth the cost it takes to acquire them (draft picks, players, etc.) then you roll the dice and try to get better this year. If the right deal isn’t out there, you wait for the summer. Sometimes you get more deals done in the summer because teams are more flexible. On the other hand, some deals happen in season because teams are more desperate or running out of time.
The other factor to keep an eye on is the rest of the league’s moves. With potential blockbusters out there for the likes of Giannis, Trae Young, and others, there could be some massive deals that would require 3rd and 4th teams to make happen. Stevens could use Simons or a TPE to take back useful players to help facilitate another deal.
There’s still a lot of time between now and the deadline. A lot of things can change in a short amount of time. But it is encouraging that the Celtics have shown such progress in the early part of the season. Will that lead to Brad Stevens being a buyer on the market? It will be very interesting to see how that plays out. Get your popcorn ready, I love this movie.
