Numbers never lie, right?
There are so many statistics to parse through during the NFL season that some can be misleading. After each game, it’s a good exercise to review NFL “Next Gen Stats” and “Premium Stats” from Pro Football Focus and find the numbers that paint a picture not only of the game, but of what to expect from the Kansas City Chiefs moving forward.
Here are three statistics from the Week 2 win over the Indianapolis Colts and what they could mean for the rest of the season:
1. Tyquan Thornton completed both contested-catch chances downfield
According to
PFF, Thornton made the only two deep completions (20 or more yards in the air) for quarterback Patrick Mahomes against the Colts. Both completions had contact at the catch point, giving Thornton a chance to showcase the reliability to bring in those throws we saw all last season.
It’s especially significant when compared to the lowlights from the two top wideouts in Kansas City: wide receiver Xavier Worthy was faulted with two drops, per PFF, and Rashee Rice was unable to bring in a tight-window catch late in the game that was an easier play to make than either of Thornton’s.
Through two weeks, Mahomes has been tagged with five drops by PFF. Only Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love has more drops this season before “Monday Night Football.”
2. None of Travis Kelce’s 9 catches were ‘tight window’ throws
For the second straight week, football fans questioned how soon-to-be 37-year-old tight end Travis Kelce had so much room to rumble and stumble downfield. According to Next Gen Stats, Kelce had more than a yard of separation on each of his 11 targets, producing nine catches, 101 yards, and a touchdown; 67 of his yards came after the catch.
To sum it up: Kelce is finding open windows. He avoided tight-window throws all night against Indianapolis, and that goes back to Thornton’s downfield play and the offense’s overall speed when everyone is healthy. Kelce can still work underneath and find the pockets, and Mahomes’ chemistry with the all-time tight end can still make a huge difference on crucial downs and in the red zone.
Kelce is the team’s leader in receiving yards (172) through two weeks; he could continue on as the highest-volume target if Rice, Worthy and Thornton continue to share the load in the receiver room and attack downfield. The play-action game helps open things up here as well.
3. Colts receiver Josh Downs had 7 catches and 72 yards out of the slot
Per PFF, the Colts’ slot receiver was very productive in the pass game, mostly against Chiefs cornerback L’Jarius Sneed; he also beat safety Christian Rolland-Wallace downfield out of the slot at one point. Six of the seven catches moved the chains.
It’s a reminder that Sneed’s best trait is being physical. When a team can present this type of matchup, a shifty receiver that can win quickly out of the slot, should the Chiefs’ defense be prepared to move a stickier coverage player like Nohl Williams into the slot?
It will be interesting to see if Kansas City adjusts to Downs exposing a potential hole in the secondary.
