As we continue our series we get to the most difficult position to profile. It is difficult because we entered into this series with some established rules. Players need to play a considerable amount at the position (you’ve seen some players qualify at more than one position) and they need to record at least 120 outs. Yordan Alvarez is the only player on the Astros to qualify in left field, but he does not play a ton of left field. So, later in the article we will create a player we will name Joey
Dezenfido Jr. to tally up essentially what the Astros have been getting in left field.
We could have included Taylor Trammel, but he is playing more center these days and that will become important in the next piece. There can be no doubt that Yordan Alvarez is the best offensive player in the American League. Whether that makes him an MVP is certainly open to debate. Usually MVPs contribute with both the bat and the glove and there are certainly worthy candidates on other teams that do that. However, today we are looking only at offense.
Looking at the triumverate of Lamont Wade Jr, Joey Loperfido, and Zach Dezenzo becomes important because it will be the benchmark we measure any possible outfield acquisitions with. Obviously, both left field and center field are open possibilities and these next two articles will hopefully settle which position the Astros should target in a perfect world.
We use bases per out because they are much more accurate and all encompassing than cruder stats like OPS and OPS+. They are probably most similar to wOBA and rOBA, but since the formula is more transparent (because it is mine) it will hopefully be more meaningful. This is a gentle reminder that the MLB average for BPO is .676, but as we have seen, each position is different and brings with it different expectations. Otherwise, this article will serve as the lime wedge for the tequila shot that will be the other outfield positions.
We should start with the number of left fielders. There are 19 here. More designated hitters are classified as left fielders than any other outfield position. They include Alvarez, George Springer, Jorge Soler, and Masataka Yoshida. We can continue with the notion that pegging numbers during a baseball season is always a moving target. These were the numbers prior to Sunday’s game before the all-star break. A few hot games or a few 0 fers can change the numbers a little, but when you are 90 games into the season we begin to see some crystallization of numbers.
Simply put, Yordan’s numbers are stupid. Only Taylor Ward has more walks and Alvarez laps the field in total bases. One of the markers of an MVP is how much better a player is than the rest of the players at his position. It isn’t even close. If Randy Arozorena wasn’t a human target at the plate the gap would even be more significant. The question isn’t so much of what to do with Yordan or how great he is then what is happening at the rest of the position.
As you can see, the bar for being the mean or median AL left fielder is higher than any other position save first base. So, when we look at the numbers for the other left fielders on the roster we have to look at it in that context. It is one thing to get a league average hitter at any position but a league average hitter is not a league average left fielder.
We should start with some uncomfortable truths. Dezenzo and Loperfido have the bulk of the plate appearances and Denenzo sits at a .600 BPO at the break and Loperfido sits at a .585 BPO at the break. Wade just doesn’t have enough plate appearances to really peg where he is at this point. There is no way of telling whether he is another Breden Shewmake or Raymel Deglado or whether he can stick as a legitimate option from the left side of the plate.
Similarly, Trammel could be an option there as well and he is performing better than this, but putting him in left field means a steady diet of Brice Matthews in center field. As we have seen, the Astros are league median or better at every position on the diamond except for this one. Obviously, we haven’t looked at center field or right field yet.
You cannot have an all-star at every position. However, you also can’t have a batting order with three holes in it. That doesn’t even count that some other hitters have been wildly inconsistent throughout the season. Unless you plan on sewing some alternate jerseys and employing some funky fake facial hair, you cannot maximize Yordan more than what you are currently doing. Even a league average left and center fielder would do wonders for this lineup.
As people have pointed out in comments, there are other holes on the roster. There is at least one hole if not more in the rotation. There could probably be an argument made for a late inning leverage guy from the right side. We have now identified two outfield slots. That’s as many as five guys. So, which hole is the most pressing to fill? That is the question the Astros face as they approach the deadline.
