First, here’s why I’m NOT worried about the Rebears :
1. There was marked improvement Saturday in the Benz from the Auburn game. The Georgia defense did not have any disastrous 3rd down 15 yard penalties extending drives.
Now the other side of that coin is that the pass interference penalty on Khalil Barnes came on 4th down, and allowed Florida to extend their record streak of not experiencing a shutout. I need a sarcasm font on “pass interference” and “record streak”.
2. A lot of people are pointing
to a susceptible Rebel secondary, but I noticed they’re not especially good against the run. They rank 13th in the conference in that department, and it’s been a bit of a Jekyll & Hyde scenario. Florida ran for 302 yards on Ole Miss. They then only gave up 39 against a pretty good Mizzouri ground game 2 weeks later. Texas, who couldn’t run from a guy named Leatherface toting a chainsaw, put up 207 against the Rebels. But last week Ole Miss held Auburn to 63 and less than 2.5 yards per.
If the Bulldog passing attack isn’t clicking, and it hasn’t clicked in a month of Sundays, then Georgia still might be able to run the damn ball.
3. Ole Miss is 10th in the CFP rankings, and have been hanging around the top 10 all year. They also rank 113th in 3rd down defense and 94th in 1st down defense; bottom quartile in every penalty category; they’ve thrown 9 interceptions; 101st in passing yards allowed, 129th in time of possession; and 97th in total defense. I don’t get it. How are they stopping anybody?
Now forgive me, as I was weaned at the nipple of Larry Munson’s scratch so here’s what does worry me about going to Vaught-Hemingway where we’re only 12-9 all time and lost the last 2 trips:
1. Bend, don’t break won’t work this week. If Georgia reverts to type and gives up yards between the 20’s before stiffening up and preventing TDs, that might not serve us Saturday. University of Mississippi Offensive Coordinator Joe Don John David Baker has been dialing up successful plays in the red zone. They’ve scored 30 times out of 31 attempts, and have scored touchdowns 84% of the time (UGA has a 77% TD conversion rate).
Having Trinidad Chambliss and his 2,200 passing yards helps. Also nice is that he’s rushed for 7 scores, most on the team. And he can run it in a myriad of ways: bootlegs, scrambles from being flushed, as well as sneaks and QB power.
2. Flipping the field. By my count, Georgia has started a possession inside its own 15 yard line eleven times the last 3 games.
Last week was typical in that, aside from Florida turnovers, UGA is not winning the field position battle. We started 4 times inside our own 20 out of 10 possessions and only 1 of those resulted in a score. By contrast, Florida only started inside its 20 three times – twice from kickoff returns (one was a holding penalty that pushed them back) and only once from a Georgia punt.
Miller isn’t pinning them deep very often – we were really spoiled for how Thorson got the stuttering offense out of jams so often. And you can’t expect an offense to march a long field every time to score without making some mistakes and turning it over – either through a kick or worse. And the potent Ole Miss offense will gladly take extra possessions and would probably prefer a shootout.
3 . Above I listed some (mostly) defensive stats that should give a Georgia fan optimism. But if you’re wondering how Ole Miss is winning so many games and ranked so high, then here you go: 13th nationally in 1st down offense and 15th in 3rd down conversions; the 19th ranked passing offense which is 2nd in the SEC; 4th nationally in sacks allowed and 12th nationally in tackles for loss allowed (yes, Chambliss is efficient in avoiding that); and 4th in the country in net punting just in case they don’t score.
Call me crazy, just don’t call me late for dinner. Let us know in the comments what you’re feeling about traveling to the Grove and the potential Heisman winner. And as always…
GO ‘DAWGS!!!
