Until this week, it was unknown if 3B/1B Kazuma Okamoto would even be available for MLB teams. The Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball are known for refusing to post their star players, so if Okamoto wanted
to play stateside, he’d naturally become an international free agent in another year’s time. Despite an injury-shortened season and ducking the hassle of a posting fee, the Japanese star will reportedly be posted this winter. While it’s an unusual move for the franchise, Yomiuri is willing this time to try and get some value for the player rather than letting him walk for nothing.
Okamoto has been a mainstay of the Giants since he broke through into the starting lineup in 2018. Okamoto has, in that time, become one of the premier hitters in the NPB, displaying contact, power, and an ability to get on base. Okamoto slashed an impressive .277/.361/.521 over his time with the Giants, and has accumulated six All-Star appearances and three Gold Gloves along the way. The 29 year old has also racked up 274 home runs for the Giants while keeping his strikeout rate relatively low.
Despite only playing a half season due to injuries last year, Okamoto still managed to slash an impressive .322/.511/.481 amassing just 38 strikeouts in 314 plate appearances – a 210 wRC+ per FanGraphs. There has been some concern about how these stats could translate, particularly how Okamoto will deal with the higher velocity in the MLB. FanGraphs Eric Longenhagen notes that Okamoto’s stats “fall off a cliff” on fastballs over 94 MPH. Longenhagen also notes that this could be due to not having enough experience, facing only 200 pitches over 94 all of last year, teams may still be concerned, especially if the right-handed hitting slugger mostly plays first base.
Conversely, Okamoto has improved his walk rate over the past three seasons. While early in his career he struggled with strikeouts, Okamoto has broken a 10% walk rate in the last three seasons. Okamoto has also slashed his swinging strike percentage nearly in half over the past three seasons. Dropping his whiff rate from 11.7% in 2023 to 8.8% in 2025, this is a player who has worked on taking pitches and trying to work himself into a good count to swing in. When he does swing, Okamoto isn’t chasing. Okamoto has, throughout his career, put more strikes in play than balls by a significant margin. The high quality of overall play, despite a lower average velocity on pitches, is one of the challenges in scouting Japanese players at the country’s highest level. However, the clearly positive trend in the advanced metrics for Okamoto leads me to believe he would have few issues settling in at the plate state side.
While Okamoto has experience at third, first, and left field, most commentators have projected him as a first baseman considering his age. Still, he has played over 60% of his starts at third base over the past few seasons. In 2025, Okamoto had over 400 innings at third as opposed to just under 200 at first base. While the 29-year-old could eventually transition into a DH/ first base role as his career progresses, there’s not currently any defensive data to suggest that he may not be able to play third moving forward.
Now the obvious question is, do the Mariners need Okamoto? To me, it’s a resounding yes. I enjoy Eugenio Suárez as much as the next guy, but I was disappointed to see the Mariners reacquire him at the deadline, and it was disheartening to see him struggle so much down the stretch, especially in the playoffs. Additionally, the cost to retain Suárez, who is almost certainly looking for a longer-term deal this offseason, far outweighs any benefits. Moreover, Suárez will be 35 next year, which places him a ways out of the Mariners’ competitive window, and in the short term, it’s more than likely he starts DHing more as it is.
Your follow-up to this is probably something like “But Ezra, what about Ben Williamson?” He had a nice cup of coffee run for the Mariners, but he is still likely a year away from being full-time on the big league roster. Behind him, the Mariners have two players in their top 30 MLB prospects who have even played third base: Colt Emerson, who will play shortstop, and Luis Suisbel, who is in High-A and likely won’t be a factor until 2027. There are also a few options on the open market. I, for one, refuse to consider bringing in Alex Bergman, which cuts down on options even more. Is this the year you want to see the Yoán Moncada roulette in Seattle? I think not.
So, the question is, how much will this cost? The Mariners have made it as difficult as possible to figure out how much they’re willing to spend to make the roster more competitive, but there have certainly been some positive signs. In the case of Okamoto, we’re not just talking about contracts; we’re also talking about posting fees. Masataka Yoshida received a 5-year $90 million contract, and Seiya Suzuki received a 5-year $85 million contract. Okamoto would also probably receive something in this region. In my estimate, I think something in the area of 5 years $100 million is likely. However, with Munetaka Murakami being posted as well, his market may be depressed to start, but will still likely be on the higher end. In terms of posting fee, if my math is correct, it would be approximately $16,875,000. The total cost of about $116 million would be only a little more than the 5-year $115 million contract the Mariners gave Robbie Ray back in 2022, and more than worth it in my opinion.
Overall, the Mariners must pursue Kazuma Okamoto at the very least. He fills a clear position of need and adds another bat in the lineup who likes to put the ball in play and get on base, like Josh Naylor (hopefully). The cost isn’t prohibitively high compared to other options on the market, and his age fits within the Mariners competitive window. If this team and organization are serious about building off this season, now is the time to go and make a splash. They have the momentum of the city behind them, they have the attention of the media due to a great playoff run and Cal Raleigh, and they have budding superstars to build around all over the roster. Now is the time to go out and get a player that will ideally put them over the top in Kazuma Okamoto.
