The Christian Watson price tag has been set

We’ve told you for a while now to keep an eye on what happens with Alec Pierce in free agency, because Christian Watson, going into a contract year in 2026, is as close to a comparison to Pierce as you’ll find in the league. Both were drafted in the same class, are athletic players with long speed and have similar production under their rookie deals.

Here’s the statistical breakdown of their careers so far:

• Pierce: 157 receptions for 2,934 yards (18.7 YPR) and 17 touchdowns
• Watson: 133 receptions for 2,264 yards (17.0 YPR) and 20 touchdowns

Previously, the best comparison was probably Jameson Williams, who signed for a $26.7 million

per year deal last year. He has posted 148 receptions for 2,513 yards (17.0 YPR) and 17 touchdowns in his NFL career.

ESPN’s Pat McAfee is reporting that Pierce will be returning to the Indianapolis Colts on a four-year, $116 million deal ($29 million per), a slight raise from the Williams mark.

When the Packers talk extension with Watson moving forward, the number will hover around that $29 million per year baseline, if it hasn’t been pushed there already.

Watson is currently set to play out his one-year, $11 million contract extension that he received while he was still recovering from his ACL tear. It’ll be interesting to see if the team gets an extension done before mandatory minicamp in June. If they don’t, there’s a chance that Watson could hold out, considering how much money is on the line for him.

Unlike 2026, the Packers should have a ton of cap space in 2027, meaning that if Watson leaves in free agency next year, there’s no promise that the team will be able to collect a compensatory draft pick for his loss, as they’re highly likely to spend money next cycle. At the moment, Green Bay is expected to collect two third-round picks (Malik Willis and Rasheed Walker) and two fourth-round picks (Quay Walker and Romeo Doubs) for losses they’ll eventually have in the 2026 free agency period.