For years, league wide fastball usage has been on the decline, as after decades of being used over 60% of the time by pitchers, it dropped below 50% in 2022, and even lower to 47% by 2023. The biggest proprietor of the change in fastball usage has been the introduction of Statcast to Major League Baseball, as in 2015, the first year of Statcast’s usage, all 30 MLB teams threw fastballs over 50% of the time, and now just 7 MLB teams remain who throw fastballs over 50% of the time.
Under Davey Martinez
and his coaching staff, the Nationals were one of the last teams holding onto the fastball, being in the top 2 in fastball usage each of the last 4 seasons. While the higher heater usage than most certainly wasn’t the sole reason for the pitching staffs bad results over the last few years, it showed the lack in forward thinking the organization had, sticking to tradition and ignoring trends that could have had benefits for them.
With Blake Butera and his staff running the show, we knew things were going to look different in 2026, but not the full extent, as Butera, POBO Paul Toboni, and pitching coach Simon Mathews were all coming from organizations which ranked between 10th and 20th in fastball usage in 2026.
Would the club overcorrect and throw fastballs at a much lower rate in 2026, or would they stick to the status quo and cut down the teams fastball usage only a little? Although we’re just 3 games into Spring Training, I believe we have our answer.
So far, the Nationals have used 24 different pitchers in Spring Training over the course of 3 games. Of those 24 pitchers, only 5 of them have used their fastball as their primary pitch, those pitchers being Gus Varland, Zach Penrod, Tucker Biven, Sandy Gaston, and Erik Tolman. Compare this to the 2025 Nats’ pitching staff, where of the 25 pitchers to throw at least 10 innings in the big leagues last season, ALL of them threw their fastball as their primary pitch.
Perhaps the most notable example of a pitcher moving away from their fastball this spring has been Mitchell Parker, who, in a 43 pitch outing yesterday, threw his fastball just 27.9% of the time, well below his 55% usage rate in 2025. Instead, he favored his slider and curveball much more, throwing both pitches 30.2% of the time. The results: 2 scoreless innings with 1 hit, 1 walk, 1 strikeout, and plenty of soft contact.
Of the 5 pitchers who did throw their fastball primarily in their outings, they all had one thing in common; they throw it really hard. Varland, Gaston, and Tolman all sat above 95 with their heaters in their outings, with Penrod and Biven not too far behind at just below 95. While there are more variables that make a fastball good than its velocity, it’s still clear that the new coaching staffs focus is having its pitchers focus on their strengths on the mound, even if it means using an unorthodox pitch the most often.
Spring Training is a time for players to tinker with new approaches and ideas since the results won’t count against them, so I wouldn’t expect the number of Nationals pitcher who throw a heater primarily to remain this low in the regular season, but it’s still new and exciting to see the coaching staff having the pitchers trying something new with their approach. Hopefully, this new approach will help some pitchers, such as Mitchell Parker, have newfound success in 2026.
