The Los Angeles Dodgers are in town for a weekend set with the Tigers, and the story will certainly revolve around Tarik Skubal’s return to Detroit. Rarely in franchise history has the organization had such a talented pitcher and it was a pleasure to watch the two-time Cy Young award winner’s career unfold. While Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Alex Faedo were the hotshot first round picks, Skubal was the afterthought who, through a lot of hard work and development, turned himself into one of the greatest
pitchers in Tigers’ history. At the same time, the circumstances between Skubal and the Tigers over his final year with the team are still too fresh in many minds for a dispassionate assessment.
My first experience with Tarik Skubal was just looking him up as a matter of course on draft day 2018, when the Tigers selected him in the ninth round. What we saw was a skinny, young left-hander with an obviously good fastball, but nothing else that really stood out. His breaking stuff and changeup were really mediocre, and my first thought was that he might make a good fastball heavy reliever.
He was impressive in a brief look in A-ball, but there wasn’t much new to report. Then came his full season dominance in 2019 as he tore through High-A, and then went absolutely nuts during a 42.1 inning stint at Double-A to close the year. He was comfortably sitting 95 mph and hitting 97-98 mph here and there, but the carry traits on his fourseamer were just outrageous. His slider was somewhat improved, but he was still heavily fastball reliant, and yet no one could hit him. He struck out 48.2 percent of hitters faced, with an insane 21.7 percent whiff rate. There still wasn’t much artistry to his approach. Instead it looked like a game of catch on steroids as he just threw fastballs by everyone with abandon.
It’s easy to forget how long a process it really was for Skubal to transform himself physically, mentally, and in terms of his actual stuff, into the beast we watched from mid-2023 until he was traded. His 2020 debut during the short COVID season wasn’t impressive at all, and he was marginally better as his slider improved in 2021, but still shockingly home run prone. It didn’t help that MLB cracked down on the sticky stuff in June of 2021, and Skubal’s fastball spin rate notably declined after the new policies and umpire inspections of pitchers was instituted. No doubt there was an adjustment period for him three in recalibrating the heater.
The first big evolution of his pro career came in the wake of those changes, as Skubal started using his sinker and slider more, and the latter pitch improved significantly. He also started leaning into his natural tendency to cut the fourseam fastball and began pitching inside much more aggressively to right-handed hitters, with good results. After being incredibly home run prone his first two seasons, he drastically cut down the home runs allowed in 2022 and was on his way to a very good season before blowing out the flexor tendon in his left elbow at the beginning of August. The process of recovering from that surgery was really where Skubal turned himself into the ace version of himself.
When Tarik Skubal emerged to start making rehab outings in June of 2023, he looked like a whole different person. His legs had turned into tree trunks, and his whole frame was bulked up with good muscle and moving faster and more efficiently than ever before. Suddenly the fastball was routinely 98-99 mph. Reportedly, analysts in the Tigers front office had come up with a seam-shifted changeup for him, and once Skubal got the feel for that pitch he was off to the races with the best fastball-changeup combination in the game.
From that point in mid-2023 through 2025, Skubal was the best pitcher in baseball. In the process, he transformed what was possible for a club still trying to build up their roster. The Tigers front office was slow on the uptake in my opinion, and really never made a serious effort to capitalize as their young talent from the great Avila draft classes of 2018-2020 came into their own. The Tigers won a pair of Wild Card series, and came close to advancing to the ALCS last fall, but ultimately they were always a big piece or two short of looking like a legit World Series contender.
The point of going back through his history is just to re-emphasize that Skubal was never the guy. He turned himself into the monster he became with a ton of drive and hard-work. He did so as a perfect citizen in the Tigers’ clubhouse, providing leadership and motivation to all around him. He breathed fire on the mound and wasn’t shy of a little chirping with opposing teams and fanbases, all while maintaining a very open, light-hearted approach to the media. This isn’t Justin Verlander, who was always the man right from the start, with all the physical gifts one could ask for in a pitcher, including downright ludicrous durability. Skubal was a nobody who built himself up into one of the most overpowering pitchers in recent history, and secured his place in history already by winning back-to-back AL Cy Young awards.
It’s hard to find much fault with Skubal here. The time to pursue an extension was after his 2023 breakout. The Tigers apparently made one vague, lowball extension offer in 2024, and neither party broached the subject again. At that point he was too close to free agency to go offering a huge discount. Whether Skubal wanted to stay or not, and he’s always insisted that he’d love to be a Tiger for life, Scott Harris never seemed very interested. At the same time, as a Scott Boras client and union rep for the Tigers, whether Skubal would have considered a less than full market value extension is an open question. A question the Tigers never tested with an offer.
Losing a player of this caliber is really hard on a fanbase. Smaller market clubs are accustomed to being poached by the Dodgers and Yankees of the baseball world, but it never feels good, especially on a team that actually had preseason hopes. Tarik Skubal’s emergence as the best pitcher in baseball helped open a window of contention and gave us all a pretty good dose of postseason baseball. While some remain frustrated that he didn’t pitch an extra inning in Game 5 of last year’s ALDS, he’s certainly the one who did the most to get them there.
From the end of the 2025 playoffs until he was traded on August 1 to the Dodgers, an absolute storm of scutiny and speculation from national and local media followed Skubal wherever he went. At times, he didn’t handle it that well, as his natural desire to be open and well-liked by the Tigers’ fanbase led him into some traps. He couldn’t talk numbers, and by then it was finally clear to everyone if it wasn’t already, that he was going to free agency. But because he’s the one center stage and can’t hide from the drama, it was up to him to field the same types of questions over and over for the nine months until he was traded. He arguably put his foot in his mouth a few times, but for the most part he conducted himself admirably.
Fundamentally, all a player can do is play and conduct themselves like a professional. They’re judged by how they perform, and to a degree for how well they represent the franchise and the fanbase with their conduct. Skubal was close to impeccable on both counts, and while it’s natural for some to have some hard feelings, there’s really no reason to direct any of that at Tarik Skubal. He did everything he could to win in Detroit, even rushing through a bit of an experimental procedure on his elbow in May to try and get back to action as soon as possible. We were fortunate to have him and there’s really nothing to suggest the Tigers ever seriously pursued keeping him long-term.
What is really going to be interesting now though, is whether a combination of his somewhat injury plagued season and a whole host of issues with the league, the Dodgers, and the next CBA will impact his free agency. A year ago, he looked like he might land a $400 million deal from the Dodgers. Now, with a slightly down year at age 29, with the 2027 season in at least some doubt, and with their ownership mired in financial trouble, things are a lot less clear. Will the Tigers be involved? Who knows, but at least the field seems to be opening up.
When Tarik Skubal returns to the mound for the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight, let’s hope he gets a full throated standing ovation from the Tigers’ faithful. He’s earned it. His peak puts him among the best Tigers’ pitchers of all-time, and when some of the heat from the drama of the past year subsides, that legacy in Detroit is all that will remain. Seeing him on the mound is going to bring up a broad mix of emotions from Tigers fans, but it’s also a bit of a relief to have the drama behind us. The Tigers are headed into a tricky time for the organization and there’s a lot to consider going into the offseason. Tarik Skubal is not really one of those things right now, so perhaps Friday night will just be cathartic in a sense and everyone can move on, at least for now.
Welcome back home, Tarik. We hope you get the love you deserve, and then the Tigers drop an eight-spot on you somehow. It’s all in the game.
