There is a time in the not to distant past where this game would have been appointment viewing for man than just a few die hards. The last two years of Chris Mack and the first year of Sean Miller all featured good Xavier teams and good Marquette teams in great matchups that mattered. Well, this one matters as well, but necessarily because these teams are playing for NCAA seeding. They very much aren’t.
Xavier needs this game to set themselves up for a Big East Tournament run. If you aren’t still
cheering for one of those, I wonder why you are watching. Marquette needs this one to have a chance to avoid last place this season. The Golden Eagles have finished last in the Big East exactly once. I don’t think they want to add to that. Shaka Smart hasn’t missed the tournament at Marquette and that will almost certainly happen this year unless they play themselves into the position Xavier so badly needs.
Team Fingerprint
On offense the numbers are not good. Xavier doesn’t shoot the ball terribly well, but they are borderline deadeye compared to Marquette. The Golden Eagles are 236th in the nation in EFG%, 259th in the three point shooting, 205th in two point shooting, and 326th from the line. They don’t turn it over much, which is good, but their offensive rebounding is just the wrong side of average. Of course, that didn’t matter much the first time.
Defensively they are 81st nationally. They get a lot of steals and are pretty good at forcing turnovers, but mediocre shot defense and the inability to grab a rebound really hamper them. All in all, they profile as a team that just isn’t very good on either end of the floor. That could be why they are 9-16.
Players
| Starting matchups | ||
|---|---|---|
| Nigel James Jr. | Point Guard | All Wright |
| Freshman | Class | Sophomore |
| 6’0″, 190 | Measurements | 6’3″, 190 |
| 15.2/3.1/4.7 | Game line | 7.5/1.8/2.1 |
| 47.1/39/70.8 | Shooting line | 46.7/44.3/81.8 |
| James is a really good ballplayer right out of high school. He took a couple of games to warm into the college game before dropping 16 on Indiana to earn his way into the starting lineup. He ripped off four straight games with 8 assists in January and is shooting 45% from deep in conference, including a 7-9 barrage against Nova. He pairs all this offensive output with excellent defensive numbers. He can be a little turnover prone, but he’s a freshman leading the conference in usage rate, so that can be forgiven. | ||
| Adrien Stevens | Shooting Guard | Malik Messina-Moore |
| Freshman | Class | Senior |
| 6’4″, 215 | Measurements | 6’5″, 200 |
| 7.4/2.4/1.7 | Game line | 10.8/2.8/3.6 |
| 44.8/39.4/78.9 | Shooting line | 38.3/35.4/77.5 |
| Stevens is actually more efficient than his classmate, but it’s coming on less than half the usage. He’s an excellent three-point shooter with over two-thirds of his attempts coming from deep. He plays strong defense but isn’t contributing a lot in ball distribution or on the glass. He’s not afraid to shoot himself through a cold patch; he’s 13-22 from deep in his last 3 games after shooting 3-15 in the 3 before that. | ||
| Chase Ross | Small Forward | Tre Carroll |
| Senior | Class | Senior |
| 6’5″, 210 | Measurements | 6’8″, 235 |
| 15/4/3.4 | Game line | 18/5.7/2.6 |
| 41.7/29.1/74.5 | Shooting line | 50.1/33.3/66.3 |
| You hate to say an increase in usage exposed a previously productive role player, but it’s hard to see what else might be going on here. Ross is still an excellent defender, but his shooting line has tanked as a senior and his efficiency has taken a nose dive even as his usage rate spiked. He’s spending more time with the ball in his hands and has increased his assist numbers while keeping his TO rate low, but the dude couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat right now. | ||
| Royce Parham | Power Forward | Filip Borovicanin |
| Sophomore | Class | Senior |
| 6’8″, 230 | Measurements | 6’9″, 227 |
| 11.9/4.6/0.9 | Game line | 9.9/7.9/4.3 |
| 50.2/30.1/63.7 | Shooting line | 43.8/32/85.7 |
| Parham, on the other hand, has stepped up nicely as a sophomore. His shooting numbers are a little deceptive; after going 10-40 from beyond the arc in the non-con, he’s shooting a respectable 35% from there with decent volume in Big East play. He’s also hitting more than 66% of his two-point attempts. He’s not exactly a monster on the glass, but he’s an efficient offensive player whose range stretches the floor for Marquette. | ||
| Ben Gold | Center | Jovan Milicevic |
| Senior | Class | Sophomore |
| 6’11”, 245 | Measurements | 6’10”, 241 |
| 8.3/5.5/0.8 | Game line | 11.3/3.8/1.3 |
| 39.8/26.3/66.7 | Shooting line | 43.3/40.7/69.1 |
| Gold was second in the conference with a 61% EFG% last year. This season he’s well outside the top 10 with a 45.6% mark. He actually leads the Big East in two-point percentage at 68.6%, but a gruesome 12-57 (21.1%) from beyond the arc in league play in league play has been a real buzzkill. He’s good on the defensive glass and doesn’t turn the ball over, but a guy with more than twice as many threes as twos attempted on his career needs to be making more than 1 of every 5. |
Reserves
Marquette will likely still be without the services of Sean Jones, who may be done for the season due to ongoing turf toe. In terms of players off the bench who do not start and average double digit minutes in league play, there is just one: Sophomore wing Demarius Owens. Owens has been better in conference play that he was in the non conference, rebounding well at both ends and seeing his scoring average rise from 2.6 per game to 6.1 on a respectable .455/.310/.708 shooting line. Big man Caedin Hamilton had been a starter all season until the first meeting between these two teams, but has seen his role diminish significantly due to his woeful 36% mark from the field in Big East play and his inability to keep from fouling. Tre Norman was a player Marquette was surely hoping would step in to help fill the void left by Kam Jones, but he is playing less this season than he did in his first two years and, although his shooting has improved, has seen his turnover troubles drop his ORTG a full 10 points in conference play from last year. Freshman win Michael Phillips II has shot the ball well from three at times this season, but has struggled in conference play and is 0-11 on two point field goals in his college career. He has the athleticism to block shots and make an impact on the glass, but has coupled that with a penchant for fouling. 7 footer Josh Clark has yet to carve out a consistent role for himself. He can rebound and block shots well, but struggles to score efficiently and is especially bad from the line at 23% for the season. He had 6 and 6 against UConn on January 4th, perhaps signaling a breakout, but has followed up with 6 and 9 total in the 10 games since.
Three Questions
– Does Xavier rebound this time? The only other time Marquette hit the offensive glass as well as the last meeting was against #302 Little Rock. Sometimes six minutes can change a game. X needs to keep a generally mediocre rebounding Golden Eagles team from racking up second chances.
– Can anyone stay out of foul trouble? It’s usually Jovan Milicevic, but Tre Carroll, All Wright, Isaiah Walker, Malik Messina-Moore, Filip Borovicanin, Anthony Robinson, Pape N’Diaye and Roddie Anderson have all fouled out or been limited by having four fouls in the last month. That is the rotation. Every single Xavier player has had playing time curtailed by fouls in the last eight games. That’s unheard of and Xavier has been the worse for it.
– Who is the big in rotation? Anthony Robinson flashed across the early season like a meteor, then disappeared, and now may be back. Pape N’Diaye had three games with nearly 50% minutes and then vanished himself. Robinson is a menace against other more physical bigs. N’Diaye is excellent as on off-ball shot blocker. Marquette’s guards like to get to the rim and their tallest player is a three point shooter. Will Coach Pitino prefer what N’Diaye can offer on defense or see if Anthony Robinson can body Ben Gold?
Three Keys
– Run the ol’ make shots offense: Xavier has still only lost three games when their EFG is over 50%. One of those was stolen by the refs. When this team is hitting, they are incredibly tough to beat. 11-3 is a good number, the 1-9 they are when their shooting isn’t on is a stark reminder of how thin the margin is.
– Find a way to rest Tre Carroll: Xavier needs Tre, but Tre needs rest. When the perpetually spinning forward starts to get fatigued, he starts to turn the ball over. Anything more than 34 minutes starts being an invitation for trouble. Find some way, other than foul trouble, to get Tre some second half bench time.
– Push the pace: Marquette likes to use their defense to drag games into the mud. They are 349th in defensive possession length, forcing their opponents to hunt a shot for nearly 19 seconds. Xavier can keep them uncomfortable by doing what they want to do anyway: run.
