With the vast majority of conference tournaments starting this week, 57 of 64 spots in NCAA baseball Regionals are accounted for between allotted automatic qualifiers and teams with secure at-large resumes. So it’s down to the final seven spots, with the understanding that any conference tournament champions from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, CUSA, SEC, Sun Belt which are not one of the projected at-large teams below will essentially “steal” one of those seven remaining bids. It’s also worth noting that Mercer
and UCSB are projected as the SoCon and Big West champions, respectively, but those leagues would become two-bid leagues if someone outside of them wins those conference tournaments.
The American is in interesting shape with both ECU and UTSA being bubble teams. They tied for the regular season title with UTSA holding the head-to-head series advantage, but with ECU having the better metrics. As odd as it sounds, NC State should root for ECU to win the American tournament. With ECU’s AD on the selection committee, it’s best to not have the Pirates there battling with NC State for one of the remaining at-large spots.
The other currently projected automatic qualifiers that NC State should root for are High Point (Big South), Campbell (CAA), Gonzaga (WCC), and Miami-OH (MAC). Those four teams are probably sitting on the outside looking in if they don’t win their respective conference tournaments, but each have a compelling at-large argument.
Kentucky will remain an interesting case this year. The Wildcats finished 13-17 in the SEC, which is generally good enough to get you in – especially with an RPI of 34 – but they won just two of ten conference series. If Kentucky puts together a decent SEC Tournament appearance, it might give the committee enough reason to put them into the field. If they go one-and-done in Hoover and still make an NCAA Regional, it’ll show you just how much the selection committee loves the SEC. Kentucky and Vanderbilt will play in the first round of the SEC Tournament in a true NCAA Regional elimination game. A Kentucky win there might be enough to secure an at-large bid, while Vanderbilt would need to win that game and a second round game against Florida to get back onto the right side of the bubble.
It wasn’t great for the ACC that Virginia lost their series to Louisville this weekend, but that actually helps NC State. Virginia probably put themselves back on the bubble as they now have a 14-16 ACC record, but they’re generally viewed as a sure-thing at-large bid despite losing their last three conference series. It helps NC State then to have the same league mark as the Cavaliers, and also helps Virginia Tech as the Hokies are one game better in league play than Virginia, although they did lose the head-to-head series between the two.
Below are the bubble teams, with those highlighted in green being those seen as locks for an at-large bid.
It’s worth noting that I removed the ELO ranking from this projection since that’s not a metric that the selection committee will use. I’m also working under the assumption that the selection committee will not rely purely on RPI as they have in past years and instead use RPI, KPI, and DSR. Doing so would give the NCAA more backing in their insistence that teams not cancel late-season RPI-killing games.
Where do the Wolfpack stand?
NC State sits in decent but not great shape. A lot can and will change over the next week. Winning Tuesday’s ACC Tournament opener against Duke is a must for the Wolfpack. Any further wins beyond that will only cement State’s at-large bid. A loss to the Blue Devils will put State on iffy ground.
Projected Regionals:
Last Four In: Troy, Texas State, Louisiana, East Carolina
First Four Out: Kentucky, South Alabama, Purdue, Vanderbilt
