The NCAA Tournament begins today, and things are about to kickoff for the Michigan Wolverines and the rest of the country to determine the national champion. As we take a dive into the greatest tournament in sports, here are a few bold predictions.
Odds subject to change. Brought to you by Bet365 Sportsbook.
Houston to lose in 2nd Round (+500)
I’m not sold on this year’s Houston team, and despite a 28-6 regular season, the Cougars are not as good as last year. A No. 2-seed for them makes sense, but there are reasons to skeptical as well.
Less than a month ago, head coach Kelvin Sampson used the metaphor of this year’s team “preheating in the oven” compared to last year’s squad that was “already out.” That’s because the majority of the team’s offense runs through freshman Kingston Flemings, and overall, this year’s team relies on less experience than in the past.
One of my favorite things to look at when looking for vulnerable teams at the top is the difference between margin of victory at home compared to on the road. Houston’s is the worst of all the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds — its margin of victory this year is +14.3, 10th in the country, but it’s just +6.1 on the road, which ranks 21st.
The Cougars also don’t really have a signature win this season. They split with Texas Tech and Kansas, lost to Arizona twice, and lost to Tennessee and Iowa State. Looking at KenPom, their best win came early in the season against Arkansas. Since then, they have no wins in KenPom’s top-20.
When I look at a potential second-round opponent in 10-seed Texas A&M or 7-seed St. Mary’s, there are avenues for an upset. We’ll focus on St. Mary’s — like Houston, St. Mary’s likes to play slow in half court sets. But it is bigger and more proven in the backcourt than the Cougars, led by Lithuanian big man Paulius Murauskas, who averages 18.8 points per game. St. Mary’s also takes really good shots, shooting 38.6 percent in the country, ranking 13th.
Sprinkling a few bucks on maybe the most susceptible top seed in the tournament in the second round is worth a potential 5x payout, in my opinion. I’ll be rolling with Houston to be out before the second weekend.
Illinois makes the Elite Eight (+135)
KenPom has the Illini as the No. 7 team in the country and the second-best team in the Big Ten. Their prolific offense has carried them to some big wins, including Purdue and Nebraska on the road. An overtime lose to Wisconsin where Nick Boyd scored 38 is the only reason Illinois didn’t make it further in the Big Ten Tournament. And while they did lose five of their last 10 heading into the tournament, four of them came in overtime by one possession.
The Illini are led by freshman guard Keaton Wagler, but they are not as reliant on him like Houston is with Flemings. Illinois has five players that average more than 10 points per game and has a healthy mix of young talent with veterans like Andrej Stojakovic, Kylan Boswell and the Ivosic brothers.
Their draw as a 3-seed was also really strong. Penn had to go on a ridiculous run in the championship to even win the Ivy League, and North Carolina star freshman Caleb Wilson is done for the year. That would leave a non-100 percent Tar Heels team, or VCU, for Illinois in the second round. Illinois looks to have one of the easier paths to the Elite Eight in the entire tournament.
USF makes it to the second weekend (+800)
My boldest take for the NCAA Tournament is USF makes it to the Sweet Sixteen. If you don’t have a double-digit seed in the second weekend, you better be reconsidering your bracket. In the last two decades, there is an average of 1.5 double-digit seeds that win their first two games. The seed most likely to do it — an 11 seed.
That has me looking at 11-seeds with favorable first-round matchups. The two that stick out to me are VCU vs North Carolina (but I just told you how much I like Illinois), and USF vs Louisville.
The Bulls are coming into the tournament after winning 11 straight and cruising through the American Conference Tournament. They have the kind of veteran guard/big man combo you look for in teams that have historically made runs. Guard Wes Enis shot 40 percent from the field, scoring 16.8 points per game, while Izaiyah Nelson averaged 15.7 points and 9.6 assists per game, and won Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year in the conference.
They drew Louisville in the first round, and it will be without star guard Mikel Brown Jr, who averaged 18.2 points per game this season. The Cardinals are also coming off a 4-4 end to the season, losing to Miami, North Carolina, Clemson and SMU. This matchup is also a favorite among bettors, with the spread at 4.5 points after opening at 7.5.
Then, we’ll move to a potential second-round matchup with Michigan State. The Spartans have lost back-to-back games coming into the tournament, with their last coming almost two weeks ago when they beat lowly Rutgers by just four points at home on Senior Night. To boot, Michigan State has played to its competition for most of the season and it a streaky team overall. I think the Spartans could struggle in the first round against North Dakota State. If the right team comes in hot, it could mean the end of the Spartan’s season.
For +800 odds, I’ll toss a few coins at USF to be the Cinderella of the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
