Your Miami Hurricanes face off against the Indiana Hoosiers in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game tomorrow evening. This is Miami’s first trip to the National Championship Game since the 2003 Fiesta Bowl following the 2002 season.
Miami enters the game as 8.5pt underdogs according to our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook, but that doesn’t mean the game is over before it starts. This is a tough opponent who has earned their way to the National Championship Game with physicality and
excellence, but so is Miami, and each team has the talent to win.
Here are the keys to victory for the Hurricanes in the National Championship Game:
Win the line of scrimmage
This is the exact same first key from every playoff game, because it’s the foundation of everything Miami does. Mario Cristobal’s core team building philosophy is “big dudes close to the ball”. With an offensive line that averages 6’6” 330lbs, and a defensive line that goes 8 deep with size, strength, speed, and elite talent, this year’s Canes embody that archetype perfectly.
Winning the line of scrimmage on offense looks like a good run game, a time of possession advantage, plenty of time for Carson Beck to throw, and mitigation or elimination of the Indiana’s defensive line’s ability to make plays. We’ve seen that many times from Miami’s OL, including the CFP games against Texas A&M, Ohio State, and Ole Miss so that needs to happen again.
Winning the line of scrimmage on defense looks like stopping/containing Indiana’s run game (something like fewer than 100 yards rushing and 3 or fewer yards per carry), getting pressure on QB Fernando Mendoza with rushing only 4 linemen, and containing Indiana’s big passing plays (jump balls and back shoulder fades) as much as possible. Getting quick pressure and not having to blitz will allow Miami to allocate resources in pass coverage and QB run/scramble defense to defend Mendoza and company, but stopping the run is priority number 1.
Run. The. Ball.
…and run it well.
Miami will need to be at their best in this area of the game. Indiana is a stout rushing defense, and they use quickness and angles to win along the line. Miami’s OL is both big AND athletic, and they’ll need to use their size and mobility both to win up front and create lanes for Mark Fletcher Jr. and company to run the ball.
This could be a game where Marty Brown and even Girard Pringle Jr. find time in the backfield. They offer slightly different things in the run game, and that diversity could be beneficial for Miami over the course of this game. Miami will obviously go with their best players and limit rotations in the game, but some selected personnel and schematic variety could be just the thing to catch Indiana off guard for a play or two.
Win the turnover battle
This was key to all of Miami’s CFP wins against Texas A&M, Ohio State, and Ole Miss, but this will be essential against Indiana. While Miami has a +11 turnover ratio on the season, Indiana leads the country at +21. The Hoosiers have the 3rd most takeaways (29) and the 3rd fewest giveaways (8) in the Country. So, they take the ball away often and don’t give it up. Now you see why winning this battle, or at least playing them even, will be key for Miami in the National Championship Game.
Taking the ball away from the opponent is super awesome. Sports are about the ball, like the physical entity itself, so having it and taking it from the opponent are key items. Miami lost the turnover battle twice this season….and lost both games. Direct correlation to turnovers and results. So, following that logic, if Miami ties or wins the turnover battle, they will have a chance to win this game. So win the turnover battle. Please.
Win the big moments
This is two-fold. Both Miami and Indiana have won tons of games, and along the way they’ve won the big moments in those games. Think Carson Beck’s touchdown run against Ole Miss. Or Indiana’s last minute touchdowns against Penn State and Iowa. When the game has hung in the balance, both teams have found ways to win those moments, and in doing so, the games.
For Miami to win the National Championship, they’ll need to win the big moments….and in doing so keep Indiana from doing the same. That could be a 3rd down conversion on offense. It could be an open field tackle on defense. I could be catching an interception instead of having it fall incomplete. It could be getting a foot down on a catch on the sideline. It could be a great number of things, but no matter what the actual formation of the play needed is, Miami winning those moments will be key to winning the Championship.
Those are my keys to the game for the National Championship Game. Share your keys to victory in the comments below.
