Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, October 4 at 7:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN
- Location: TDECU Stadium — Houston, TX
- Spread: Texas Tech (-11.5)
- Over/under: 50.5
- All-time series: Houston leads, 18-16-1
- Last meeting: Texas Tech 49, Houston 28 — September 30, 2023
- Current streak: Texas Tech, 6 (2010-23)
Setting the scene
There are only 20 undefeated teams remaining at the FBS level, and only one Week 6 matchup pits unbeaten vs. unbeaten.
Houston and Texas Tech meet for the fourth time in five seasons, but this one comes attached with higher stakes than the predecessors. Both teams wield unblemished records and for the second time in the 21st century, the matchup counts in the conference standings. Only one Big 12 Texas-based team will emerge at 5-0 in front of what’s expected to be one of the loudest crowds in TDECU
Stadium — a crowd largely decked in light blue for Houston’s new annual “Blue Out” tradition.
Texas Tech Red Raiders outlook
Texas Tech (4-0, 1-0 Big 12) generated headlines all offseason for its spending and impressive transfer portal acquisitions. But the Red Raiders didn’t just win on paper; they’re winning and dominating ballgames. Texas Tech is one of two programs, along with Memphis, to cover every spread this year and Joey McGuire’s team has annihilated every opponent in its pathway by at least 24 points.
The most recent competition Texas Tech battled includes Oregon State — which took Houston to overtime last week — and Utah which is 4-0 with four 25+ point wins outside of its meeting with the Red Raiders. While Texas Tech seemingly hasn’t encountered adversity based on its final results, the Utah game was quite of a test of it, and the Red Raiders passed with flying colors. In that road matchup at Salt Lake City, Texas Tech committed 14 penalties compared to Utah’s two, turned the ball over twice in the first half, dropped a surefire touchdown, and lost quarterback Behren Morton to a neck injury. Yet, the Red Raiders won in wire-to-wire fashion behind a powerful closing effort.
Texas Tech enjoyed a bye week in the aftermath of the Utah game, allowing Morton substantial time to heal before he is slated to start at Houston. Morton started the 49-28 shootout over Houston in 2022, and he’s developed significantly since, firing for 1,065 yards, 11 touchdowns, and three interceptions to kick off his fifth-year senior campaign. His backup Will Hammond can provide strong support should the Red Raiders need him, as Hammond guided them to the finish line behind a 13-of-16 passing performance.
The Red Raiders own the No. 2 offense in the country at 52.0 points per game, checking in at first in the FBS in passing and second in total offense. The run game doesn’t produce the relative numbers as the aerial attack, but the group remains strong behind the balanced tandem of Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams. Both backs are over 200 yards on the season and Dickey has built habitats in end zones, checking in as the Big 12 standalone leader with six rushing touchdowns.
Williams provides an extra boost in the passing game as one of five Texas Tech players with between 200 and 260 receiving yards. That quintet features Williams at running back, Terrance Carter at tight end (tied for team-high four receiving touchdowns), and wide receivers Coy Eakin, Caleb Douglas, and Reggie Virgil. For the nation’s top passing offense, the Red Raiders operate with tremendous balance and there’s not a single option defenses must overwhelmingly gameplan for.
Texas Tech’s defense knows how to gameplan for Houston’s offense, and that’s because of one shared commonality between the programs. Red Raider defensive coordinator Shiel Wood arrived from Houston over the offseason, spending time on Willie Fritz’s staff not only with the Cougars, but with Tulane — working alongside current Houston offensive coordinator Slade Nagle in New Orleans.
Wood brought one Cougar alongside with him to Texas Tech. Defensive tackle AJ Holmes Jr. was one of many notable defensive line portal acquisitions for the Red Raiders this offseason, and he’s currently fifth on the team in stops. The other new d-linemen — ends David Bailey and Romello Height and tackles Lee Hunter and Skyler Gill-Howard have lived up to expectations, producing a run defense which ranks second in the FBS at 56 yards allowed per contest.
The Red Raiders create significant havoc up front with 2.5 sacks per game, and Bailey and Height are at the forefront with six combined sacks. Other key contributors on this nationally acclaimed unit (allowing 11.3 points per game) include the linebackers Jacob Rodriguez and Ben Roberts. Rodriguez has been one of the best at his position in the country this year, logging 28 tackles, two tackles for loss, one pick, and a pair of forced fumbles.
With Rodriguez’s punch-outs helping the cause, Texas Tech is tied for seventh in the country in takeaways. Cornerback Brice Pollock is the owner of three of the team’s six interceptions as the Red Raiders look to lock down Houston. Not a single opponent has produced more than 14 points on this group all year, and Wood aims to continue that streak against his former employer.
Houston Cougars outlook
Houston (4-0, 1-0 Big 12) already matched its overall win total from its first two years as a Big 12 institution, and Willie Fritz has the program at 4-0 for the first time since 2016. The Cougars coasted to more seamless wins in the first three weeks, but Week 4 at Oregon State presented their first hint of adversity this season.
Houston trailed by 14 points with under seven minutes remaining Friday night in Corvallis, positioned in a dire situation against one of the last remaining winless FBS teams. However, the Cougars didn’t panic. They recorded clutch defensive stops, inserted tempo into the offense to ignite the passing attack, and blocked a field goal at the conclusion of regulation — its second block of the game. It marked Houston’s largest comeback since 2022, and it demonstrated the Cougars’ perseverance above all.
The strength of last year’s Cougar team was the defense led by coordinator Shiel Wood. However, Wood departed for Texas Tech this offseason, thrusting Austin Armstrong into the same role. Under new direction and with revamped on-field personnel, defense remains the calling card for Houston which sports elite national rankings in scoring defense (14th), total defense (16th), and passing defense (11th).
Everything starts up front for the Houston defense and the defensive tackle tandem of Carlos Allen and Khalil Laufau is commanding significant attention. In what is unheard of for a defensive tackle, Allen ranks first on the team with 31 tackles, ranking third nationally among defensive linemen (although Allen is 6’1” and 295 pounds and the two linemen above him are edge rushers below 230). Another unmistakable presence on Houston’s potent defensive line is FIU transfer Eddie Walls III, who ranks first on the team with five tackles for loss.
The linebacking corps stars Sione Fotu, who earned one of the two nominations for Week 5 Big 12 Defensive Player of the Week thanks to a 15-tackle outing in Corvallis. Rounding out the prominent defense is the secondary headlined by cornerbacks Latrell McCutchin and Will James. The Cougars present impressive closing speed on the back end, and they’re holding opponents to 140 passing yards per game. Five different defensive backs have secured an interception this season — allowing Houston to rank top 10 in per game turnover margin.
Turnover margin, of course, is a concerted effort involving the offense and Houston’s offense has done a solid job avoiding mistakes. The Cougars committed their first and only turnover of the season early in the Oregon State game and they were rather penalty repellant until last Friday night — embodying Fritz’s mantra “Coogs don’t beat the Coogs.”
Houston’s offense operated under a pass-heavy philosophy against Oregon State, letting quarterback Conner Weigman air the ball out a season-high 36 times. Weigman was instrumental in leading the comeback, delivering two late touchdown throws in a 270-yard performance to force overtime. While he hasn’t been needed to fire for 300 yards, the Texas A&M transfer displays efficiency, owning a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 6-to-1. Although Houston didn’t employ the strategy much last week, Weigman also can excel as a runner as exhibited by his 83-yard, 3-touchdown rushing performance vs. Colorado in Week 3.
Although the backfield began with a committee approach in Week 1, Dean Connors has moved into a bellcow role after a combined 221 rushing yards and three touchdowns in Weeks 2 and 3. Connors is one of the fastest players on the team and can be lethal in the receiving game — ranking second among all FBS running backs in receptions at Rice in 2024.
But Weigman’s main option in the receiving game dons the No. 9 jersey. Tight end Tanner Koziol ranks first on the team in receptions with 23, and he’s cashed those catches in for 234 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Koziol is a matchup nightmare for most defenders at 6’7”, 250 pounds with a massive catch radius. Koziol produced a tying 50-yard touchdown in a mismatch a week ago and will be frequently called upon in crucial third down or obvious passing situations. Amare Thomas and Stephon Johnson are the other premier targets on the team with Thomas often serving as a medium-range threat and Johnson operating as the home run target averaging 29.4 yards per reception.
Lastly, the Cougar offense has the comfort of a remarkable kicking game should points be at a premium. Ethan Sanchez sunk a game-winner last week and is 9-for-11 on the season, sinking seven of his kicks beyond 40 yards.
Prediction
Throughout history, Texas Tech and Houston are renowned for insane offensive performances and dominant quarterback play more than almost any other colleges. Both programs have produced five different quarterbacks as an FBS single-season passing leader, and this matchup has often been characterized by video game passing yard numbers and a high scoring outputs — as best highlighted by Texas Tech’s 63-49 win over Houston in 2018.
However, this is not Texas Tech vs. Houston of yesteryear. Both teams are based mainly on defensive prowess, although the Red Raiders offense is also a high-functioning unit. The key matchup Texas Tech looks to capitalize on is its forceful defensive line pitted against a Houston offensive line which has seen lineup changes and injuries on a weekly basis. The Red Raiders often take the run game from opponents in the early going and force teams to become one-dimensional through the air.
Houston will receive an excellent backing from the TDECU Stadium crowd which nearly fueled the Cougars to a win over a College Football Playoff-bound Texas last time 40,000 entered the building. Homefield advantage will play a factor in keeping this one close for a while, but Texas Tech’s offense generates a pair of extra touchdowns to remain unbeaten.
Prediction: Texas Tech 26, Houston 14
