Remember last year? When the sunshine pumpers swore up and down that Kyrie Irving would be back on the court for the Dallas Mavericks by the New Year? Well, as it turns out, it was always going to be closer to March, which would have given the 33-year-old at the time the standard full-year recovery window after he tore his left ACL on March 3, 2025, in a game against the Sacramento Kings. But then, much to the compounding chagrin of an already scorned fanbase, when March rolled around, the Mavericks were
in such rough shape that it made no sense to risk any sort of re-aggravation of Irving’s knee.
So, 2025-26 was a maddening punt. Irving had no age-33 season at all, and the Mavericks slogged through a 26-56 disaster in Cooper Flagg’s rookie campaign. The team couldn’t even lose enough to net another top-five draft pick for its considerable trouble.
But here we are. We’ve come out the other side, sans Nico Harrison, sans Jason Kidd, sans Anthony Davis — with a young roster surrounding a healthy Irving, now 34, who’s been itching to get back to work. He said during the team’s media day on Sept. 26 that he’s moving, working out and playing with no restriction of movement.
“I’m ready to go out there and kick some butt,” Irving said during his media day press conference, the first time that he has addressed reporters since crumpling to the ground with his latest knee injury. “I know that naysayers or some of the questions around where I’m going to be are going to be inevitable. But for me, I have the confidence of a champion. … This is a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately type of league, and everybody wants to see it up close. So I’m looking forward to being able to lace up my shoes and being on the court with my teammates and show everybody what I’ve got again. It’s just like riding a bike.”
Each new workout video this offseason has gifted Mavs fans with one more talking point — one more piece of leading testimony toward our own confirmation bias. Because we all — even those of us who try to remain measured in our expectations — want to see Irving torch young whipper-snappers the league over for 25 a night as soon as the clock strikes 7:30 CST on Oct. 21, when the Mavs’ season tips off at the Houston Rockets.
Big question
Which brings us to the biggest, most glaring compound question facing Irving as the 2026-27 season looms. Can Old Man River return to form to start the season, and to that end, what kind of minute load will he be in line for in the first game of the season?
There are so many considerations. Irving is all of 34, firmly in the age range where the on-court returns can start to become not only diminishing but rapidly diminishing. Yes, there’s that, but, his body at 34 has also missed a significant portion of wear and tear along the way. Irving has famously missed more than 300 games so far in his career due to injury, rest and personal and/or team protocol reasons. Will that essentially allow him to play younger this year, having most recently Rip van Winkled his way through 2025-26? Or, does the overall body of injury over the course of his career so far make his body older than the average 34-year-old baller’s?
Will first-year head coach Dusty May limit Irving’s minutes in an attempt not to break him? Or will May let go of the reins after what essentially ballooned into a 19-month recovery window after Irving’s ACL tear?
I have a feeling we will know the answers to most of these questions within the first couple of weeks of the season, and those answers will go a long way to feed the next inevitable quandary that comes along with a star player who doesn’t fit the rest of the roster’s timeline. Will Irving be in Dallas past the 2027 NBA Trade Deadline, or will he be moved so the Mavericks can finally lean into the youth movement in earnest?
The market for Irving appears to have remained healthy, even as the season approaches. NBA insider Jake Fischer reported that both the Miami Heat and the Houston Rockets could be potential trade destinations for Irving, as recently as Sept. 29.
Best-case scenario
The Kyrie Irving dream season probably includes minimal drop-off from Irving’s production in 2024-25, when he averaged 24.7 points per game on 3-point shooting just north of 40%, 4.8 rebounds and 4.6 assists per contest. If Dallas gets anything close to 23 points on 39% 3-point shooting, four assists and four rebounds per game from Irving this season over 60 games, pinch yourself. You may be in a fever dream.
But a dream season isn’t just about production for Irving on this team. Part of his best-case scenario has to be cohesion with Flagg. Irving did a great job of this while playing with another young stud for his first two-plus years in Dallas. Can Irving’s gravity with the ball in his hands give Flagg a little room to see some open 3-pointers begin to fall in year two? Can his immaculate handle relieve Flagg of the need to always be the on-ball man with the plan? Can Irving impart some of that crunchy brand of NBA wisdom he’s become known for over the last few years?
“I’m looking forward to the opportunity to grow with [Flagg],” Irving said at Mavericks media day. “High-level basketball players, no matter the age — you put us out there, we’re going to win some ballgames.”
“Having somebody like that out there on the court with you at all times is going to be amazing,” Flagg added. “The time that we’ve been able to spend in the summer on the court together has been good for both of us to kind of build that connection. I’m really excited. I think it’s going to be really fun to share the court.”
If he can do most of these things, the Mavs could flirt with 40 wins and a play-in spot. More importantly, if he can do most of these things, he’ll make himself too valuable to lose at the trade deadline for what other teams will want to offer for a player about to turn 35.
Worst-case scenario
The worst of all outcomes would be a re-aggravation of the left knee injury early in the season. The Mavericks were deliberate in hanging onto Irving in the midst of an otherwise straightforward youth movement this offseason. They could have gotten something nice for Irving before the 2026 NBA Draft or even in a draft-day trade this summer.
If the Mavs have another aging albatross hanging around their neck for a second consecutive trade deadline, it could have the effect of further stalling the rebuild around Flagg.
Season goal
The goal is clear this year for Irving. Be a part of something. I’ll stop short of saying “something special.” Ultimately, the overarching team goal this year is geared toward building something that Irving will not have a part in. But that doesn’t mean Irving doesn’t have a meaningful part to play in Dallas this season.
Hope needs to be restored in Dallas. The concept of fun, watchable basketball needs to be restored in Dallas. Even simpler, the Mavs need an effective point guard. Irving can and should play an outsized role in those goals. He can rally the locker room toward a common vision of something north of mediocrity. And if he can do those things for 50 or more games this season, you’d have to consider that a successful year, regardless of play-in or playoff positioning.
Overall
A word of caution. It’s going to be a smoother ride for you this season if you can divorce your excitement for watching Irving’s return to form from your expectations for short-term team postseason results. The Mavericks are likely not a playoff team this year, with or without Irving at the point.
But that’s not going to stop fans from being excited to see him hit the floor once more.
