There is a lot to be negative about these days. Thanks to their loss to the Ottawa Senators on Saturday, the New Jersey Devils’ season is sadly right on the precipice of being officially lost. Unless the team has a 2010-11 Jacques Lemaire-esque run in them (23-3-2 in one 28-game stretch after Lemaire took over), this will be another season that ends before the playoffs. I have no doubt that I, along with many other folks around these parts, will discuss all the negatives surrounding this team at length
over the many months until next season begins. But for today, let’s talk about one of the few positives the Devils are offering us right now: Lenni Hameenaho.
It’s only been a couple weeks in the NHL for the 2023 second round pick, but Hameenaho has looked closer to a 10-year veteran than a rookie. He’s producing points, he’s driving play forward, and he’s giving us hope for the future. That last one is the most significant, as while this current Devils team has let us down in a huge way, perhaps next season’s iteration will actually live up to their potential. Hameenaho will be a huge part of that if he continues to play at the level he’s played at thus far.
Seriously, just look at these numbers. In addition to the two goals and two assists in seven games played, he’s also produced the following 5-on-5 metrics according to Natural Stat Trick:
Corsi For%: 52.47
Scoring Chances For%: 56.00
High Danger Corsi For%: 63.64
Expected Goals For%: 64.26
That’s pure domination across the board, which is pretty incredible for a player this young.
Today, we’re going to take a look at Hameenaho’s season thus far. Who he’s sharing the most ice time with, what sort of quality of competition he’s facing, how he’s faring on an individual level, and so on. We’ll use Natural Stat Trick and Game Score as our sources here, as those are some of the best and most accessible public evaluation models in the public sphere.
Let’s begin:
Hameenaho’s debut was a good one. In about 12-and-a-half minutes of ice time, he combined with Arseny Gritsyuk and Cody Glass on the third line and dominated his opponents. This is even more impressive when you take into account that his most common forward opponent was Nazem Kadri, who Hameenaho got 7:00 exactly of his ice time against. Safe to say he won that matchup, posting an xGF% of 90.99 against the Flames’ top forward. It was a bit of an odd matchup for Hameenaho, as while he mostly lined up against one of the Flames’ top lines, he also got a steady diet of the Flames’ third pair on defense. So pretty strong quality of competition at forward, but not so much on the blue line. In all, an xGF% in the high-80’s and a Game score in the “B” range per Hockey Stat Cards (on a traditional grading scale of A to F) is impressive stuff in your NHL debut.
I couldn’t believe it when I first saw it, and I still can’t believe it now. Hameenaho posted an xGF% of 100 against the Oilers according to Natural Stat Trick. Yes, somehow, he blanked every single Oiler he shared the ice with on January 20. Not even one single, solitary bit of danger against in his minutes. Amazing stuff. Granted, it wasn’t the toughest of deployments, with the Oilers’ bottom line (not fourth line, as they rolled 11-7 this game) and the bottom-middle of the Oilers blueline serving as his most common opponents. Still, I don’t care if it’s the cushiest minutes in the world, an xGF% of 100 is remarkable. Hockey Stat Cards seems to agree that it was another strong game, as his 0.85 Game Score came in at another “B” according to the metric.
January 23 @ Vancouver Canucks:
Hameenaho looked solid in his first two games, but he looked utterly unstoppable in his third. His most common defensemen opponents was the Canucks’ third pair, but his most common forward matchup was Vancouver’s top line of Filip Chytil, Brock Boeser, and Drew O’Connor. And just for good measure, Conor Garland was mixed in as his second-most common individual forward opponent. So Hameenaho got fed to the wolves in his third game in the NHL, and thrived nonetheless. He posted a stellar 79.15 xGF%, and he also posted his first points in the NHL with an assist and his first career goal. Hockey Stat Cards had him notched at a breathtaking 4.27 Game Score, tops on the entire team and very, very, VERY firmly in “A” territory. This was Hameenaho’s true coming out party.
Hameenaho went back to being merely mortal in this contest. Once again on a line with Glass and Gritsyuk, he was matched up against the Kraken’s second line of Jaden Schwartz, Shane Wright, and Kaapo Kakko. He also drew Seattle’s top defenseman, Brandon Montour. So fairly tough deployment all around. He responded by posting a strong xGF% of 60, but no points in the Devils’ first loss with Hameenaho in the lineup. His 0.19 Game Score might look mediocre, but Hockey Stat Cards still had it graded as a “B”, though it was certainly on the very low end of the B spectrum. Not an awful game by any means, but not the greatest game either.
And here we come to Hameenaho’s first clunker, although even that is up for debate according to the numbers. By NST’s model, Hameenaho had a bad night against the Jets. It’s true that he scored his first goal at home in his career, a partial breakaway kickstarted by Gritsyuk, but otherwise he got smashed in the run of play. To be fair, he got Hischier-like deployment, drawing Winnipeg’s super line of Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, and Gabe Vilardi, along with the Jets’ top pair of Josh Morrissey and Dylan DeMelo. It doesn’t get any tougher than that, and I really question why Sheldon Keefe (with the benefit of last change, mind you) decided to throw Glass and two rookies against one of the best lines and best defenseman in the league. In any case, the NST numbers were bad, but according to Game Score, Hameenaho was actually quite effective. His 0.84 was fourth-best on the team (his linemates were two of the three ahead of him, along with Jesper Bratt), and qualified for a “B” grade per Hockey Stat Cards. If I had to guess, the Game Score model graded heavily on a curve when taking his quality of competition into account. So it’s nice to see that even if the raw numbers were poor, there was at least one other metric out there that thought relatively highly of Hameenaho’s effort against the Jets.
As mentioned, Hameenaho got his first true taste of tough deployment against the Jets. It went poorly according to NST, and great according to Game Score. Well apparently Keefe agreed with Game Score, because he fed Hameenaho another tough assignment against the Nashville Predators. He started on a line with Dawson Mercer and Timo Meier (Cody Glass missed this game due to injury), but eventually played mostly with Gritsyuk and Hischier when new addition Maxim Tsyplakov got benched midway through the second period. Weirdly, two of his top forward opponents were Filip Forsberg and Luke Evangelista, the wingers on the Predators’ top line. But mixed into the top three for Hameenaho was Tyson Jost, a bottom six winger. Nashville 1C Ryan O’Reilly was fourth on the list, so it was essentially a top line assignment for Hameenaho with Jost sprinkled in quite a bit. I don’t know how that happened. Anyway, his numbers against Nashville’s top line weren’t good, with xGF% numbers around 30%. But his numbers against the top pair of Roman Josi and Brady Skjei were terrific, around 80% against each. That more than made up for his lackluster showing against the top forward trio for Nashville. In all, it was another game with a 5-on-5 xGF% over 60, and a Game Score that was tops on the entire club, well into “A” territory. Another strong performance against brutal competition for Hameenaho.
And finally, Hameenaho’s most recent game was his worst yet. Then again, the Devils as a whole were absolutely terrible up in Ottawa over the weekend. Another deployment with Gritsyuk and Hischier, another date against a top line (with a mix of bottom-four defensemen), and this time, both NST and Game Score had him measured well in the red. I suppose it’s a little concerning that his worst game is his most recent one, as now there will be a question of whether this is the beginning of the downfall for Hameenaho. I don’t think that is going to be the case, but only time will tell.
Final Thoughts And Your Take
Lenni Hameenaho has come up from the AHL and given this team a big boost. Unfortunately not a season-saving boost it seems, but the Devils’ season not being saved is absolutely not on Hameenaho. As mentioned, his most recent outing was by far his worst yet, which could prompt a little panic about if he’s coming back down to earth. I think it’s reasonable to have concerns, but I also think given his prior six games, how he’s looked based on the eye test, and his longer pedigree as a player/prospect, I do think that it’s also reasonable to think that’s more a bump in the road than an indicator of his downfall.
Going through each of his games individually has been an illuminating exercise, as it’s made it clear to me that Keefe is trusting Hameenaho more and more with each passing contest. He’s been getting fed difficult matchups lately, and while it hasn’t always gone according to plan, the fact that an ultra-conservative coach like Keefe is trusting a rookie with a single digit number of games under his belt with such deployment is telling. I don’t think Hameenaho is fully ready for matchup minutes, but he isn’t fully drowning in those minutes. That too, is telling.
In the end, I don’t expect Hameenaho to post numbers like these for the rest of the season. I do expect him to cool off a little bit. But I also don’t expect him to fall off a cliff, and I do expect him to use this season as a springboard to a potentially very strong sophomore campaign in 2026-27.
What do you make of Hameenaho’s start to his career? What has impressed you the most about his first seven games? Did any of the stats we went over today surprise you? As always, thanks for reading!
