Game notes
- Time and date: Friday, December 19 at 2:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN
- Location: Raymond James Stadium — Tampa, FL
- Spread: NC State (-4.5)
- Over/under: 58.5
- All-time series: No previous matchups
- Memphis last bowl: 2024 Frisco Bowl, 42-37 win over West Virginia
- South Florida last bowl: 2024 Military Bowl, 26-21 loss to East Carolina
- 2024 Gasparilla Bowl matchup: Florida 33, Tulane 8
Setting the scene
Two of college football’s more under-the-radar stable programs meet for the first time ever in Tampa. NC State is bowling for the 13th time in 16 seasons. The Wolfpack receive an opportunity to claim an 8-win
season for the seventh time in the last nine years under head coach Dave Doeren. However, the program’s track record in the postseason hasn’t been stellar lately, dropping its last five bowl games dating back to 2018 — including one to American Conference competition last December.
Memphis is bowl eligible for the 12th-straight season, but the Tigers lose a bit of stability in the process. Head coach Ryan Silverfield accepted a position at Arkansas, leaving defensive backs head coach Reggie Howard as a one-game interim for this bowl. Memphis is seeking its fifth-straight bowl win, sweeping its way through the entire 2020s decade. The Tigers aim to make it six while simultaneously attempting to snap a 3-game losing skid that ended the regular season.
Memphis Tigers outlook
Memphis (8-4, 4-4 American) was in control of its own destiny for the College Football Playoff during the first week of November, seeing its logo placed inside the CFP committee’s mock bracket. However, things were sidetracked afterward as an inspiring comeback vs. Tulane fell short. Then East Carolina furthered pushed the Tigers away from the rankings on a last-minute touchdown, and finally, Navy dominated the second half on Thanksgiving Night.
In that Navy game, Memphis saw its FBS-best 50-game streak of 20+ points come to a conclusion. The Tigers now must start anew, reinvigorating the offense in sixth-year senior quarterback Brendon Lewis’ final collegiate game. Lewis started all 12 games for Memphis this year but clearly battled a lower-body injury from mid-October onward. Still, the quarterback embraced a warrior mentality and despite decreased mobility, he delivered some of his best pocket passing performances of his six years. He posted an efficient 307 yards on South Florida and another 317 on Tulane, thriving against two of the league’s most physical defenses.
Assisting Lewis’ effort through the air is First Team All-American Conference wide receiver Cortez Braham Jr., whose playmaking abilities served the offense well all year long. Braham needs 111 yards for a 1,000-yard season, and he’s a frequented end zone threat with eight touchdowns on the season — including several one-handed and spectacular contested grabs. Jamari Hawkins is Lewis’ other primary target, picking up 17.4 yards per catch as the most explosive downfield receiver on the team.
For a team which has sent a horde of running backs to the NFL, it’s no surprise Memphis is adept in this area as well. The Tigers’ top three backs all average at least 5.0 yards per carry, led by Sutton Smith’s 669 yards on a 6.6 average. Greg Desrosiers Jr. and Frank Peasant provide quality support, and all three backs enter Tampa with exactly seven touchdowns on the year. Breakaway runs were especially common for Smith and Desrosiers — and Memphis is one of three FBS teams with multiple 80+ yard scampers this season.
Defense was the Tigers’ strong suit for the first half of the season, allowing 16.2 points per game. But that turned around at the midway point, and Memphis surrendered 28.8 points per game across its last six — although it never allowed more than 38. Most of it had to do with the passing defense. The Tigers allow 227 yards per game, and only 11 FBS teams surrendered fewer 40+ yard passes than Memphis’ 12.
Memphis holds its own up front, limiting teams to 3.8 yards per carry with a potent defensive line and linebacking corps. William Whitlow Jr. earned first team all-conference honors for the second-straight year as the team’s top defensive end, while inside linebacker Sam Brumfield was the best offseason addition to the bunch with 106 tackles, 13.0 tackles for loss, and 4.5 sacks — all ranking first on the team.
The Tigers force turnovers at a respectable rate, checking in at 12th in the country with a +9 in turnover margin. In their four losses, they only lost a turnover battle once and that was 1-0 to Tulane. But the key for Memphis is thriving from the get-go and not waiting to settle in. The Tigers were a comeback team all season, consistently finding themselves in early deficits and requiring fourth quarter heroics. Deficits of two touchdowns or greater were overcome vs. Arkansas and South Florida, and the team nearly rallied down 21 vs. Tulane but fell short.
NC State Wolfpack outlook
NC State (7-5, 4-4 ACC) faced one of the tougher schedules of any ACC team all season, encountering eight 8+ win teams in its first 10 contests. The Wolfpack picked up quality wins over East Carolina, Virginia, and Georgia Tech, yet still sat at 5-5 in mid-November. Dave Doeren’s team delivered in must-win situations at home vs. Florida State and North Carolina, qualifying for its first Gasparilla Bowl since 2014.
The Wolfpack were most renowned for their accomplishments on the offensive end, registering 30.2 points per game — with the unit clicking best in a 48-36 win over an undefeated Georgia Tech squad on Nov. 1. The unit features some top-end talent in First Team All-ACC selections Hollywood Smothers and Justin Joly. Smothers is the ACC’s third-leading rusher with 939 yards, and the potentially NFL-bound redshirt sophomore is excruciatingly close to his first 1,000-yard campaign. Meanwhile, Joly leads the team with 47 receptions and the ACC with seven touchdown catches, earning recognition as a semifinalist for the John Mackey Award.
Conducting this unit is second-year staring quarterback CJ Bailey, hungry for his first bowl win after falling short in his true freshman campaign. Bailey showed across-the-board improvements as a passer all season, completing 69.6 percent of passes with 23 touchdowns and nine interceptions — all while sprinkling in four 310+ yard barrages.
Although it’s not the focal point of his game, Bailey’s mobility proves lethal at times, and he utilized that attribute in the regular season finale vs. North Carolina to attain a season-high 65 rushing yards. Also assisting the run game is Jayden Scott, who exploded for 196 yards and two touchdowns in the signature win over Georgia Tech. Rounding out the skill position standouts are wide receivers Terrell Anderson and Noah Rogers, who support Joly in the receiving game. Anderson is the leader in receiving yards at 637, and he’ll search for his first 100-yard game since September against the Memphis secondary.
As strong as the offense was, the Wolfpack left a few wins on the table due to their defensive play. They allowed a slew of explosives in the passing game, surrendering the ninth-most 30+ yard receptions in the FBS this year. Getting off the field on third down was also a struggle, ranking 126th by giving up 45.5 percent of attempts. In yards allowed per game, the team is currently situated at 117th in the FBS.
Still, there is undisputed talent residing in this group. Senior inside linebacker Caden Fordham registered Third Team AP All-American honors behind a season of 130 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, and 3.5 sacks, and Friday presents his last opportunity to suit up prior to the professional ranks. The linebacking corps also enjoys the services of Kenny Soares Jr. who chipped in 68 tackles to rank second in the category.
Another notable national standout in this defense roams the secondary, and that is cornerback Devon Marshall. Not a single FBS player batted more passes than Marshall’s 15, and he’ll be instrumental to disrupting Cortez Braham Jr. and Memphis’ talented receiving group. The star cornerback is also the only Wolfpack player to secure multiple interceptions on the season, and NC State looks to create a turnover edge against a Tiger team that typically enjoys great turnover fortune.
Prediction
Memphis is no stranger to winning at Raymond James Stadium, owning a 3-0 record in the venue since joining the American Conference. But the Tigers face several uphill battles in Tampa, entering this matchup on a losing skid and without their head coach — in desperate need of righting the ship to redefine this 2025 season. Memphis’ offense should be able to produce some explosive plays through the running backs and Cortez Braham Jr., with a healthier Brendon Lewis guiding the way.
But NC State can counter with its never-ending offensive talent, ranging from its progressing quarterback CJ Bailey, to the running backs Hollywood Smothers and Jayden Scott, to Justin Joly and the wide receivers. NC State’s offense jumps to a strong start Friday, earning its first bowl win in eight years behind roughly 500 yards from scrimmage.
Prediction: NC State 34, Memphis 24
