We’ve reached the final game of the regular season, and the Texas Longhorns’ hopes of a College Football Playoff appearance rest on a win against Texas A&M (and likely some help from LSU and Auburn). Do
the Longhorns have to win on Friday to deem this season a success? Does it rest on reaching the CFP? Or is it already a failure?
Daniel Seahorn (@DanielSeahorn) – I think it’s a slight failure with a 9-3 finish and no playoffs. Winning on Friday would get the bad taste out of a lot of mouths, but missing the playoffs, given the pre-season expectations, would still be a bitter pill. With that said, a win on Friday and a bowl win would get you to double digits on the year, which would be a solid way to end the season.
Gerald Goodridge (@ghgoodridge) – This is such a nuanced conversation. I had Texas at 10-2 ahead of the season, so by that expectation, they have obviously fallen short. A 9-3 season, with wins over the Oklahoma Sooners, Arkansas Razorbacks, and the Texas A&M Aggies, when they are reloading from a team that lost a TON of NFL talent in most years, would be seen as a success. The season sits on the razor edge of “don’t lose to a bad Florida team, and we’re probably not having this conversation.
Cameron Parker (@camerondparker) – Assuming Texas misses the College Football Playoff, I would deem this season disappointing. Not a failure, but a disappointment considering the standard that Steve Sarkisian has set for himself. The goal ahead of the season was to compete for the SEC Championship and not only reach the CFP, but advance past the semifinals. They won’t be playing in Atlanta next week and likely won’t be playing for a National Championship. Maybe this season will be a wake-up call for Sark in terms of roster construction and coaching staff. Or else single-win seasons will be more likely.
Jacob Neidig (@jneidig_2) – Based on preseason expectations, the only outcomes of this season for it to be a success were a semifinal appearance, a title game appearance, or a title. Insane stakes. I think the position Texas is in now is disappointing, but I wouldn’t go all the way to it being a failure. There was bound to be a regression after so much talent rolled over the last two years. A win against A&M + a bowl win would result in a 10-win season with two losses coming against playoff teams. Pretty far from a failure in my book, but there’s a lot riding on these last two games, even though the CFP ship has sailed.
Quentin Bell (@uncleqbell) – Yes, because a 9-3 season isn’t bad. At 9-3, there’s hope, but 8-4 sounds a lot worse, especially when you lose against your rivals in the last regular-season game. At 9-3, a playoff berth somehow can be squeezed out, then it makes for a “successful” season. This game will spill over into next season and affect much more, win or lose. The hype should’ve humbled Texas. The only reason this season would be deemed as a failure is that Texas left the game to chance, and that certain teams require a loss.
Wescott Eberts (@SBN_Wescott) – Texas started the season as the preseason No. 1 team in both polls with national championship aspirations, so calling it a success to finish 9-3 and outside the playoffs while playing spoiler for a rival in the final game seems extremely Aggy. The only way for the season to be a success is for the slim odds of making the playoffs to somehow come into fruition, but the simple fact that the Horns don’t control their own destiny at this point makes it a disappointment, given the standard Steve Sarkisian has set on the Forty Acres over the last two years.
The Texas secondary has allowed 300+ yards passing in three of its last four games. What’s happening?
Daniel – Not sure what has happened down the stretch, but you can’t blame it on injuries anymore. You have both talent and veterans back there, so it is very alarming to see them fall apart this late in the season. If I were in charge, I would be taking a very hard look at this development over the offseason.
Gerald – On the front end, I would have said Michael Taaffe’s injury, but he has been nothing short of terrible since he came back from that injury. I think a big part of it comes down to some weird scheme choices from Pete Kwiatkowski, precipitated by the fact that Texas has 1.5 good cornerbacks. If Texas had trust in its secondary to play more press man and heat up quarterbacks with some different pressures, we would be in a lot better position.
Cameron – PK doesn’t have a lot of trust in the cornerback position, which is evident based on the soft zone scheme he’s implemented for most of the season. The bend don’t break style gives up a lot of yardage, but we’ve also seen poor tackling rear its ugly head over the past month.
Jacob – Scheme and communication breakdowns are my best guesses. Guys aren’t getting beaten off the line or high pointed down the field, which rules out repeatedly losing 1on1 battles or having less talent. The secondary is getting beaten by wide receivers running wide open on crossers and down the seam. The amount of space between the nearest defender and the player catching the ball is ludicrous on a lot of these plays. On top of that, it seems as though PK has been unable to make adjustments. Opposing offenses have been cooking for weeks on end now.
Quentin – When the offense can’t stay on the field and control the clock, fatigue begins to set in, then mental mistakes, then errors on the field tend to persist after for the defense. I believe it’s an accumulation of things for the defense that all break down to coaching. The intensity and talent are there, and now it looks like conditioning and discipline are issues even with the leading veterans on the team. Maybe, a whole breakdown during the offseason and focus on development/discipline/conditioning since it looks like it’s coming early and three-a-days in the summer due to leaving the game to chance.
Wescott – Poor communication leading to assignment busts and the impact of rotation at the cornerback position, causing defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski to employ more soft zone coverage, which is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete too many easy passes in the short and intermediate areas of the field. When those passes are inevitably completed, the Longhorns are doing a poor job of playing “catch-tackle” football, as safety Michael Taaffe calls it, in part because of issues populating the football consistently to limit those yards after catch.
What’s the biggest key to a Texas win on Friday?
Daniel – Keep Arch clean from a very good A&M pass rush and limit explosive plays on defense. If Texas wants to have a chance in this one, they are going to have to find some of that early-season mojo defensively, and they are going to have to continue to manufacture offense through Manning the way they have down the home stretch.
Gerald – Scheme a way to keep the pocket clean for as long as you can and exploit some of the matchup differences in the passing game. A&M is susceptible to giving up some big plays in the passing game, but it hasn’t bitten them yet because teams don’t usually have time to get the ball out on long-developing plays because of their defensive front. If they can go with a game plan similar to what they did against OU, minimizing the disadvantage in the trenches and letting Arch get the ball out quickly to the playmakers, the offense could get going.
Cameron – Let Arch Manning cook. Texas is 4-0 when Arch eclipses the 300-yard passing mark, and I think Texas will need to get close to that to win. The bad news? Texas A&M has not allowed any opposing QB to reach 300 passing yards yet this season.
Jacob – Do enough in the trenches. The A&M pass rush is going to cause some havoc. They’re going to get theirs at some point. Texas has to limit those plays and ensure they don’t derail consecutive drives. On the other side, the Longhorns need to stuff the run game and keep Reed in the pocket. They don’t need to be perfect on either side of the ball, but do enough to ensure they don’t lose the game by getting bullied up front.
Quentin – Execution on both sides. The pass needs to be protected, and the run needs to be solidified. The defense needs to force turnovers and disrupt the pocket. It all starts with big men up front on the O and D-line and winning that battle in the thicket, and the other positions will feed off of it.
Wescott – The offense’s ability to stay on schedule and maintain clean pockets for Arch Manning. The downfield passing game has started to come to life for Texas because the offense is avoiding the self-inflicted wounds that defined the first half of the season, allowing Manning to go through his progressions without significant stress on his eye discipline and pocket presence. If the Longhorns’ offensive line can give Manning time, the weakness of this Aggies defense is allowing explosive plays.
Will Texas end the regular season with an upset win over Texas A&M (+2.5 at FanDuel)?
Daniel (8-3/2-9 ATS) – This is a tough one for me. Part of me wants to pick Texas in the upset because of how they were able to bottle up Marcel Reed last year in this matchup, but the defense has been unraveling the past few weeks against good passing attacks. I think Manning’s play will give them a chance in this one, and I think it will be tight. But I’m just not feeling optimistic enough to pick Texas outright. Texas A&M 31 Texas 27
Gerald (8-3/2-9 ATS) – This is a big head/gut disconnect for me. Everything in my head is telling me to pick Texas A&M, but my gut is telling me to pick Texas. There’s a big gap in how well Texas plays at home and on the road, and with so much on the line, I think Texas is going to be locked in for this one. Texas 27, Texas A&M 24
Cameron (7-4/6-5 ATS) – This is a matchup nightmare for Texas. The Aggies are a more physical football team, and Marcel Reed has been excellent in creating explosive plays. Yet, something tells me the Longhorns win. Texas 27, Texas A&M 23
Jacob (8-3/4-7 ATS) – Texas has too much to play for – senior night, home game @ DKR, rare night game, huge rivalry, a chance to spoil a perfect season – for me to expect the Longhorns to come out and fall on their face. I think this is an emotional, gritty game for Texas, where a few turnovers could largely swing the outcome for either team. The Longhorns are +10 on the year, the Aggies are -5. Give me Texas in the TO battle and therefore the final score. Texas 28, Texas A&M 27
Quentin (7-3/3-7 ATS) – The possibility is always there, but A&M at this moment looks like, if not the best, but one of the best teams in the nation. The O and D will be tested, Texas has a slight advantage at home (5-0), and it’s a rivalry game. It’ll be close, Texas 27, Texas A&M 24
Wescott (7-5/4-7 ATS) – The A&M defense creates too much havoc for me to feel confident in this game, especially combined with the struggles in the secondary. Those are both poor matchups for me right now – I think the Aggies expose the lack of athleticism on the interior offensive line for the Horns, and Marcel Reed is able to find explosive plays in the passing game. A&M wins and covers. Texas 25, Texas A&M 30
