Even future first ballot Hall of Famers have to worry about pitch tipping. In the aftermath of the Yankees’ 4-3 series clinching win
over the Blue Jays on Sunday, both teams confirmed that Toronto starter Max Scherzer was tipping his changeup in the first inning. Cody Bellinger noticed the tendency standing on first and relayed the information to Aaron Judge at second, who signaled to batter Ben Rice when a changeup was coming.It is not the first time the Yankees have benefitted from the opposition tipping their pitches, as they won a thrilling comeback in July against the Mariners after noticing that closer Andrés Muñoz was tipping his slider. Of course, diagnosing the pitch is only half the battle — the hitter still has a split-second to decide if the pitch is a strike or not and what the proper bat path is should he decide to swing. More impressive than the Yankees’ acuity to gain this edge was Rice’s actual performance in the at-bat, winning a ten-pitch battle with a three-run home run that was the big blow in the game, the Yankees going on to score just one more run in the final seven innings.
Scherzer starts Rice with a first pitch four-seamer, the catcher setting a target on the corner up and away.
I’m a little surprised that Rice is taking all the way here. Scherzer makes a mistake and yanks this heater down the middle, but Rice doesn’t look interested and leaves the bat on his shoulder — a missed opportunity given he might not get another pitch like this to hit for the rest of the AB.
Seeing Rice’s passivity on the first-pitch fastball right down the pipe, Scherzer doubles up on the pitch hoping to catch the hitter guessing wrong again.
This is way better execution than the first pitch, Scherzer nailing his target on the inside edge of the zone. Rice tries to trick the home plate ump that this pitch is inside but Blue ain’t fooled.
Just like that, Rice finds himself in trouble, 0-2, all without the bat ever leaving his shoulder. He is in danger of wasting a valuable opportunity to get on the board in the first with a runner in scoring position and less than two outs. That means it’s time for the first changeup of the AB, though the clip begins after we can see whether or not Judge signaled with his arms.
It doesn’t really matter either way considering how uncompetitively far from the zone this ball ends up. The changeup starts as a ball out of the hand low and only drops further from the zone as it reaches home, making for an automatic take from Rice regardless of whether he knew pitch type or not.
Considering how poorly he executed that changeup and how he was able to freeze Rice with a pair of in-zone fastballs earlier, it makes sense that Scherzer changes speeds back up to the heater.
This pitch is pretty well located on the edge away. However, it is just low enough that Rice is able to get some wood on it to foul it off the other way and stay alive.
Rice was pretty late with that swing, the emergency hack barely in time to foul off the heater. If Scherzer can elevate a fastball even higher, there’s a good chance Rice will whiff underneath.
This time, Scherzer isn’t as sharp with his execution, and this four-seamer sails a bit arm-side for a relatively straightforward take from Rice for ball two.
With the count now 2-2, Scherzer goes back to the changeup and we get our first glimpse of Judge signaling to Rice what pitch is coming.
It’s slightly better executed than the first changeup of the AB, the pitch looking like a low strike out of Scherzer’s hand. Rice certainly looks like someone who knows exactly what pitch was coming with his take, spitting on a pitch that many would have chased.
Rice has done well to fight back from 0-2 to work a full count. Interestingly, Scherzer sticks with the changeup despite Rice’s disciplined take on the previous one. Again, we see Judge hold out his arms at second to let Rice know what is coming.
This is probably the most explicit example of the advantage conferred to Rice. This pitch looks like a fastball out of the zone up and in out of Scherzer’s hand before its downward fading action brings it back into the zone. Rice knows exactly where the pitch is going to land and gets his barrel to it, but he’s just a tad overeager with his timing and pulls it foul into the second deck in right.
Perhaps Scherzer senses that something is up, because he ditches the changeup for the rest of this encounter. After two in a row, he speeds back up to the fastball banking that he has slowed Rice’s bat down enough that he will now be able to throw the heat by him.
This might be Scherzer’s best-executed pitch of the AB so far, the four-seamer pinpointed right on the corner up and in. However, Rice is all over it, hooking a line drive foul toward his own dugout. Perhaps he is sitting on a heater after not receiving a signal from Judge — it certainly appears so from a timing perspective.
Rice has now clobbered each of the last two pitches foul to the right, one a changeup and one a fastball. Scherzer attempts to leverage Rice’s quick trigger swing by dropping in the first breaking ball of the AB. It’s a shrewd choice, the curveball coming in seven mph slower than the changeup and and 16 mph slower than the four-seamer. If Scherzer can land it in the zone, it should be nearly impossible for Rice to adjust his timing all the way down to a 79 mph pitch.
Once again, Scherzer is nearly flawless with his execution, dotting the corner down and away with the curve. Rice must have read the spin immediately out of Scherzer’s hand, because he stays back on this pitch before grounding it foul to the right again. That’s back-to-back pitcher’s pitches from Scherzer that Rice has been able to foul off to keep the AB rolling.
On pitch ten of this battle, Scherzer decides he has had enough and tries to just hoof a fastball by Rice, location be damned.
Perhaps not the best strategy against a hitter who has been locked in on the timing and movement of three different pitch types this AB. Rice demolishes this center-cut four-seamer into the seats in right for a three-run shot to give his team an invaluable early lead against the team they are chasing in the division.
Here’s the full AB:
