Pitchers and catchers report next month. So it seems about the time we should start putting together a possible D-backs roster. Of course, things are still subject to change. Players will arrive. Even if there are no big-ticket free-agent signings, there’s a good chance that a non-roster invitee will impress enough in spring to make the roster. We saw Shelby Miller do exactly that last year. On the other hand, no squad is going to remain a hundred percent healthy, even given the gentle pace at which
spring training games occur. So this is my current “most likely” prediction of the 26 men to break camp for the D-backs, with salary for those not pre-arbitration.
Starting rotation
- Merrill Kelly ($20m)
- Ryne Nelson ($3m)
- Brandon Pfaadt ($3.4m)
- Eduardo Rodriguez ($21m)
- Michael Soroka ($7.5m)
Let’s start off with the easiest bit. This is effectively just swapping out Soroka for Gallen, which doesn’t sound like an upgrade, but Gallen overall was less than whelming. Everyone else occupies the same spots as at the end of the year. Where things get considerably greyer is on the depth chart beyond those five pitchers. Cristian Mena, Kohl Drake and Dylan Ray might represent the upper tier in Reno. But other names are available, and exactly the order in which the team ranks them is hard to say. Finding out would likely require an injury to one of the five starting pitchers above, so I’m in no rush to find out.
Bullpen
- Ryan Thompson ($3.95m)
- Kevin Ginkel ($2.725m)
- Andrew Saalfrank
- Juan Morillo
- Brandyn Garcia
- Drey Jameson
- Yilber Diaz
- Bryce Jarvis
From the most certain to the least certain section of the roster. The top three names are the only ones I would say are assured (obvious caveats about health permitting) of a bullpen spot. Thereafter? You might as well throw darts at every other reliever on the 40-man roster, and potentially a good few off it. Morillo seems a probable, given his 42 appearances last year, and Garcia saw a fair bit of action after coming over from Seattle at the deadline. Jameson and Diaz are bounceback candidates, for health and ineffectiveness reasons respectively. I’m hoping Drey is healthy, and Diaz’s 1.08 ERA and decent control in Venezuela is legit. Presuming he can get back from there too.
The long relief spot is going to be particularly interesting, I feel. Last year, we saw it given to Ryne Nelson, who ended up becoming, first a spot starter, and then a permanent member of the rotation. If the same tactic is adopted in 2026, it could be someone like Mena in the role. However, I note the presence of Gus Varland, who was claimed off waivers from the White Sox in August, and has survived the hail-storm of 40-man roster transactions since, while many around him (including Jarvis) have been DFA’d. If he’d been given a cup of coffee in September, I’d perhaps have included him, but it’s all rather strange.
As an aside, worth noting that 40-man roster spots should not be at a particular premium, at least initially. Corbin Burnes, Justin Martinez, A.J. Puk, Blake Walston and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. could all get shifted onto the 60-man IL as soon as that opens up, so there’ll be plenty of room to add players.
Starting line-up
- Catcher: Gabriel Moreno ($2.55m)
- First base: Tyler Locklear
- Second base: Ketel Marte ($15m)
- Shortstop: Geraldo Perdomo ($6.25m)
- Third-base: Blaze Alexander
- Left field: Jorge Barrosa, in the absence of anyone else!
- Center field: Alek Thomas ($1.96m)
- Right field: Corbin Carroll ($10.62m)
- Designated hitter: Adrian Del Castillo
Degree of confidence: moderate. At least four of the above are locked-in certs, but most of the rest are fairly sure, albeit on the basis of, “Well, we don’t have any better options right now.” The corner infield spots could see players getting switched off the bench, especially at first, where a Locklear/Pavin Smith platoon appears increasingly likely. Similarly, at third (though it’s trickier since both candidates are RHB), it’s probably Alexander or Jordan Lawlar, unless Ken Kendrick pulls a January surprise and signs Alex Bregman. DH could end up some pot-luck involving Smith, Del Castillo and possibly even Marte – he made 21 appearances there last year, which is more than I would have expected.
I do feel a lack of offense, and in particular power there. Of the six D-backs to reach double figures in home-runs last season, two won’t be with the team, and a third starts the year on the IL. In Alexander, Thomas and Barrosa – the last named the default outfielder after the trade of McCarthy – we have a trio of everyday players who had OPS+ of 95, 82 and 8(!) respectively last year, with Del Castillo at 87. You don’t want to look at what Locklear did. You are always going to be able to rely on the holy trinity. But as currently constructed, I am not seeing a team which will be able to outslug the opposition regularly, and that’s going to put increased pressure on the pitching staff to be significantly better. Right now, I’m unsure they will be.
Bench
- James McCann ($2.75m)
- Pavin Smith ($2.25m)
- Jordan Lawlar
- Tim Tawa
There’s a case that Smith and Locklear should be swapped, Pavin being on the strong side of the platoon. But with Locklear being five years younger, I think he’ll be given every chance to show he can be the first baseman of the future. Lawlar is in a somewhat similar boat, but I think he has something to prove before getting the benefit of the playing time. Tawa’s versatility is going to see him starting games all over the field, especially as the only “true” fourth outfielder. Though Alexander’s heroics there could also help lead to him playing left field while we wait for the return of Gurriel.
Payroll
With all of our arbitration candidates now taken care of, we can get a better idea of what the team’s Opening Day payroll costs are going to be. We also need to add in the following players who will start the season on the IL, and are getting paid more than league minimum.
- Corbin Burnes ($31.7m)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ($13m)
- Justin Martinez ($2.4m)
- A.J. Puk ($3.1m)
Adding up all the confirmed figures above gives us $154 million, plus the cost of 11 spots by pre-arbitration players. The league minimum salary this year will be $780,000, so that’s $8.6 million for the roster filler – whoever they might be. There’s also a slice of Ketel Marte’s signing bonus. That all brings us to $163 million as the current Opening Day payroll for 2026. That’s close to the Fangraphs figure of $167 million. From what I can see, the difference is basically them saying Burnes is earning $35 million, a little more than the $31.7 million figure I used, which came off Baseball Reference. But was gratified to see it’s near what the God of Payroll, Jack Sommers, reckons!
So, what now? It has been well reported that the Diamondbacks are looking to reduce payroll. But by how much is unknown, and nor are we sure which base figure to reduce from is being referenced by the team. Because last year’s Opening Day payroll was different from the one at season’s end. Even if we want to compare like with like, that OD 2025 figure apparently depends on how you calculate it, and so there are various figures out there. Cots Baseball Contracts and Fangraphs Roster Resource said $196 million and $187 million respectively. USA Today said $195 million. There does appear to be some room for expansion. But how much, we’ll only know as further deals get signed.
What changes would you make to the above? Tell us in the comments!
