The Bucks get up in Volume 8, new recruits Cam Thomas and Ousmane Dieng making immediate impressions in Milwaukee and claiming their first momentum moments. But sometimes you can fly too high, too quick. Icarus and all that. Relive the last thirteen games—the sun, the sea—and the moments that defined them.
@ Magic
Sometimes it’s quiet and sometimes it’s loud. Tonight it’s both. With 4:04 left on the clock in the third quarter, rising star Anthony Black makes a driving layup that puts the Magic up six, 73-67.
This is the quiet. But Doc Rivers has his ear to the ground—senses the subtle—and calls for a timeout. The response is immediate, AJ Green swishing a three from the right wing. Then it gets loud. Franz Wagner is the culprit, turning the dial up with an assist to his brother Mo for a three of his own. And when Kevin Porter Jr. fails to get enough spring on his bounce pass to Jericho Sims, it gets really loud. The ball bangs off Sims’ shins and then Franz turns the dial some more, feeding Jase Richardson for another bomb that hurts twice as much when you remember you used to watch his dad do the same thing. Ultimately, the explosion is too deafening, too deadly, and the Bucks lose on the road, end their three-game win streak.
Win probability prior to Anthony Black’s layup: 23.3%
Win probability after Jase Richardson’s three: 10.4%
@ Magic
“I’m a bucket.” The words could never be more honest, not when they come from Cam Thomas’ mouth. But these are post game. First, rewind the tape. Stop with 1:42 left to go on the third, Bucks up 79-76. Press play.
It starts with free throws, both of them pure. Then it gets ridiculous. Thomas catches one from KPJ at the top of the three-point line and rises up en pointe so well you think he’s part of the ABT. Jalen Suggs buys the ticket and watches in awe as Thomas finishes at the rim. From the gallery, Giannis does too. The tension continues to rise as Thomas follows it up with a grand jeté past Suggs for another two. Then the coda. With the help of Bobby Portis, Thomas rips the ball from Suggs and pushes it the other way. Determined to make amends, Suggs cuts him off at the three-point line, but Thomas sees it coming, leaning into Suggs to set up a step-back. After it splashes through the net, putting the Bucks up eight, Lisa Byington’s commentary says it all: “He’s on a heater!” But Thomas just shrugs, gets back on D. After all, this ain’t new. He’s a bucket.
Win probability before Thomas’ free throws: 59.1%
Win probability after Thomas’ three: 72.4%
@ Thunder
Before he makes a driving layup, before he blocks Aaron Wiggins at the rim, before he grabs his 11th rebound, before he finds Portis for an 18-footer, before he blocks Isaiah Joe’s layup, before he drills a 25-footer, before he splashes a middy, before he hits a step-back three, before he blocks Chet Holmgren and Kenrich Williams just 26 seconds apart, before he finds AJ Green for three, before he cans an 11-foot fadeaway, before he drops a 6-foot pull-up, before he cashes free throws, before he rips a Jaylin Williams pass, before he assists Portis for three, before he drains one from a Kuzma feed, before he hits the offensive glass, before he finds Cam-I-Am for a middy, and before he feeds KPJ and Sims for dunks… Ousmane Dieng pulls down three defensive boards in the opening three minutes against his former squad—the Oklahoma City Thunder. It’s a small stat, but one that’s become a telling part of his impact on the Bucks. Ranking 26th in rebound percentage at 48.1% prior to acquiring Dieng, the Bucks rank seventh (53.6%) over their last three games. Prior to all of this, Trader Jon Horst acquires Dieng for Nick Richards, and before that—four years and seven months earlier—draft savant Sam Presti selects him 11th overall. Now? Now we get to see that potential come to fruition. One moment at a time.
Win probability before Trader Jon makes the call: 0.0% (unofficially)
Win probability after Dieng’s third rebound: 25.8%
@ Pelicans
Up just six in the fourth after a Zion Williamson basket and Pelicans defensive stop, Pete Nance—nearly forgotten in all the Cam Thomas and Ousmane Dieng hype—teams up with Dieng to force a Derik Queen turnover. It’s enough to cause a minor scuffle, Lisa Byington proclaiming it’s “Getting physical here in NOLA!” KPJ and Herb Jones feel it too, jockeying for the ball outside the sideline. But when the refs signal Bucks ball and call New Orleans for a delay of game violation, KPJ feels it even more, applauding the call and then dapping up Nance for his efforts. KPJ takes the energy into the next play, feeling the momentum, looking for his man. After he sheds one defender and draws another, he finds him. Nance catches it in the corner and does what he does best—makes an immediate decision. This one’s to let it fly, and by the time it’s through the net and Nance scurries back on defence, the sting is all but gone. This one’s done. But Nance sure ain’t.
Win probability before Nance and Dieng team up for the stop: 74.9%
Win probability after Nance’s three: 87.2%
vs. Raptors
Pre-game, I dropped a message in the Brew Hoop staff thread: “No Scottie Barnes is handy.” As it turns out, Immanuel Quickley must be on the payroll because he was on one from the moment he took his first field goal attempt—a 13-foot runner. Nylon. He’d finish with a game-high 32 points, just his third 30-piece of the season, but he’d also finish with nine assists, one shy of KPJ’s game-high total. His fourth would break the Bucks’ backs. Up six, the Bucks had their best play of the night: Rollins collapses the paint and kicks it to Turner in the corner who swings it to KPJ on the wing. He’s wide open. But instead of letting it fly he gives it back to Rollins who’d relocated to his left. Butter. Tres bien. Just one possession in it. Time out, Raptors.
On the bench, Quickley clenches his jaw. He forages through a bag. Pulls out a phone. Reads the message once again. “No Scottie Barnes is handy.” The words ring through his mind. Again. And again. And again.
Moments later, when the ball comes to him off a broken play, he’s locked in, delivering a no-look laser straight to Jamal Shead who goes pure. Raps back up six, 65-59. From there, it’s an avalanche—Toronto goes 60-35 the rest of the way—and all I can say in the thread, to you, is “My bad.”
Win probability when Quickley makes his first basket: 49.0%
Win probability after Shead’s three: 27.1%
vs. Heat
116-114, Heat lead. 4:10 left on the clock in the fourth. KPJ receives the inbounds pass and brings it across half court. He passes to Sims, then screens for Rollins. Defence too tight, KPJ curls back to the ball, then gets it to Rollins. 14 left on the shot clock. Rollins surveys the scene. Looks for a curling AJ Green. It’s too disjointed—no flow. He gives it up to the Mayor instead. Gets it right back. Now just 10 on the shot clock. Gotta make a move. And he does, getting into the paint. 5 seconds turns to four as the defence swarms, the heat thick. In the background, KPJ senses the need for help—hears every damn coach he’s ever had—and creates a passing lane. Rollins sees it, finds him in the corner. Four ticks to three. KPJ catches, checks his toes—the clock turning to two—then rises up and releases…
By the time the clock ticks over to one, the whistle has gone, the ball is through the net. The Bucks have taken the lead. After KPJ converts the four-point play, they’re up two, and they never look back—icing the game with an 11-1 run. The lid is off.
Win probability prior to KPJ’s three: 34.9%
Win probability after he converts the free throw: 57.4%
vs. Cavs
This one’s a picture. In the background, BP provides a bail-out option. Top right, Rollins stands alone, hands up in communication. In premature celebration. Behind him, they stand. AJax, Taurean Prince in street clothes. The rest of the bench. Doc Rivers is even upright. On the baseline, Sims wrestles with Schroder. In the foreground, Sam Merrill is mid stride, desperately trying to stick with AJ Green behind the three-point line. Official Evan Scott is just to Green’s right. Beneath them, planted across the screen, the game details: 116-116, 21.8 left in the fourth. In the middle of it all, Keon Ellis and Jaylon Tyson dig back in help. It’s too late. Jarrett Allen is airborne, arm fully extended. But it doesn’t matter. KPJ is airborne too, fading back at 60 degrees. Braids flowing in the still. The ball just off his fingertips. Just out of Allen’s reach. And when you click play, it does what the picture promises.
This one’s a picture. Hang it on the wall.
Win probability prior to KPJ’s release: 47.5%
Win probability after the fadeaway: 63.5%
vs. Knicks
At the 10:51 mark of the first quarter, the Bucks leave forward-guard Josh Hart, generously listed at 6’5”, wide open. He’s on the right wing, above the break, and no other player is even on that side of the court. His defender, 6’11” centre Myles Turner, is below the dotted line in the paint. It’s a bold strategy, one Doc Rivers and his team clearly planned in advance. Of course, Hart goes on to net the shot. Still, Milwaukee sticks with it, and while Hart doesn’t go on to punish it directly—he finishes just 4/11 from the field (2/7 from three)—he becomes a pressure release valve that gets the Knicks in an offensive flow. By the time Rivers waves the white flag with over five minutes left in the fourth, the Knicks are 20/34 from three and have only five turnovers. Back to the drawing board.
Win probability prior to Hart’s three: 29.4%
Win probability after it: 25.3%
@ Bulls
So much for a moment; how about a whole quarter of momentum-destroying ineptitude? That’s exactly what the Bucks chucked up in fourth after starting it with an 89-87 lead. They would end with just eight more. Eight. Yes, you read that correctly. So few I have to write out the word. In fact, Milwaukee didn’t score a single point until a KPJ free throw with 5:51 left in the quarter. They didn’t even make a field goal until an Ousmane Dieng dunk with just 3:12 remaining. Of course, by that point, it was garbage time, the Bulls had already scored 26 points of their own, and the Bucks had found a way to make history. Of the worst kind.
Win probability at the start of the fourth quarter: 59.7%
Win probability after the Bucks’ first field goal of the fourth—Dieng’s dunk: 0.1%
vs. Celtics
Giannis is back. Jaylen Brown and Neemias Queta are out. But that doesn’t change a damn thing for the imploding Bucks and the rampaging Celtics. Just 57 seconds into the game, 19-year-old rookie Hugo González—in just his third career start—rips the game away from Milwaukee, crashing the offensive glass like a wrecking ball. He does so between the entire Bucks’ front court—Turner, Giannis, and Dieng. Oh, and he’s just 6’6”. González goes on to grab a career-and-game-high 16 rebounds, including five on the offensive end, leading to a 54-41 rebounding edge for the Celtics that screams effort. Guts. Pride. The little things. None of which these Bucks are showing.
Win probability at the start of the game: 34.7%
Win probability after González’s rebound: 39.4% (the rare occasion the numbers don’t match the moment)
vs. Hawks
It’s a battle for the 10th se… Blah blah blah. The Bucks put up another stinker. There is no momentum, only brakes: Milwaukee’s season coming to a grinding halt.
Win probability at the start of the game: 40.1%
Playoff probability after it: <13.0%
vs. Jazz
The Bucks are bad but they don’t want to be. The Utah Jazz are bad and they certainly do want to be. In fact, they’ve so intentionally been bad they got fined $500,000 for it. So, when Kuzma finds Giannis for a dunk and Giannis reciprocates the favour, finding Kuz for a layup that puts the Bucks up 13 with less than seven minutes of action played in the first quarter, both sides are happy. From there, they follow the script, keeping the game close enough for it to feel like the result is in doubt. It’s even just a two-possession game with less than two minutes left in the fourth! Won’t someone be a hero? Kuz puts on the costume cape, nailing back-to-back threes that put the game out of reach, but make no mistake, this was decided a long time ago. And everyone goes home smiling, patting themselves on the back.
Win probability at the start of the game: 77.9%
Win probability after Giannis and Kuzma play your turn, my turn: 92.6%
vs. Magic
The first half isn’t pretty, and it’s a 67-55 lead for the Magic at the break, but the Bucks are still in with a chance. All they need is a strong start to the third—a couple of baskets, a of couple stops. Instead, the Bucks’ offensive play-by-play reads:
- Turner miss
- Rollins turnover
- Rollins turnover
- Rollins three
- Turner miss
- Turner miss
- Rollins turnover
- Turner miss
- Dieng turnover
- Thomas miss
- Green miss
- Dieng miss
- Turner turnover
Just like that, it’s a 26-point Magic lead and Cam Thomas is dribbling into behind-the-backboard, fadeaway three-point attempts from the corner just to beat the shot clock.
Win probability at the start of the third: 11.6%
Win probability after Turner’s turnover: 0.3%
Which moment hit hardest? Cast your vote below and, as always, add your thoughts in the comments.
