Date: Saturday December 20, 2025
Time: 7:30 PM (ET)
TV: ESPN2
The Quick Hits
To call this semifinal a matchup of Cinderellas might be an understatement. Unseeded Illinois State takes on 12-seed Villanova in the culminations of two of the more miraculous runs the FCS playoffs have
seen in quite some time. The Redbirds have gone three for three on the road during this postseason, most notably slaying the boogeyman that is North Dakota State two weeks ago in Fargo. Last week they strung together another impressive upset, downing UC Davis in its building and suddenly ISU finds itself one win away from reaching the national championship for the first time in over a decade. There has to be a sense of invincibility for that squad but, so too, is there one for the ‘Nova team they’ll face on Saturday night.
The Wildcats rallied from 14 down last week to upend a really good Tarleton State squad and get here. With two consecutive road wins, Villanova now gets to come back home for one more game in Philadelphia as it looks to head back to the big game for the first time since 2009. The perennial CAA power (at least for one more season before they depart for the Patriot League) is just 60 minutes away from clearing its final hurdle en route to Nashville. One way or another history will be made in Philly this weekend.
The Coaches
Both coaches in this game have been at it for sometime. Villanova’s Mark Ferrante is in his ninth season at the controls and he’s been one of the best coaches in Wildcats history. Since getting promoted to the top spot in 2017, Ferrante has guided his team to a pair of CAA championships and has reached the playoffs five times. This run to the semifinals, though, is as far as he’s ever taken them, at least as a head coach. Ferrante has been with the program in some capacity for 38 years now, serving as a linebackers and offensive line coach before he was named head coach. Ferrante won a ring with ‘Nova as an assistant head coach 16 seasons ago but now has his eyes on another as the head man.
Brock Spack has been around for quite sometime also, having led the Redbirds for 17 seasons. Spack is one of the longest tenured head coaches in the FCS and he too has been on the championship stage before. Spack coached Illinois State to an appearance in the 2014 title game where his team fell just short to North Dakota State in an all timer. With 122 total wins at ISU, he is easily the program’s winningest coach in its history. This season is the fifth that Spack has delivered at least ten wins and it’s the seventh that the team has finished in the national Top 25 rankings.
Villanova Offense vs. Illinois State Defense
The Wildcats have gotten to where they are largely on the back of good quarterback play and a great run game. Signal caller Pat McQuaide is at the center of it. McQuaide came over from Nicholls and has stepped up to lead the offense in the place of Connor Watkins who graduated after last season. McQuaide has thrown for 2,924 yards and 24 touchdowns. The real key number, though, is the mere three interceptions. He will not often make mistakes and even when he does, it will seldom be more than one in a game. That will need to happen again this week against the Illinois State defense that has picked of 18 passes this year.
The two main guys McQuaide will need to be wary of are defensive backs Shadwell Nkuba II and Cam Wilson. That duo has been terrific on the back end for the Redbirds this year, each playing in all 15 games and combining for 18 deflected passes along with seven interceptions. During these playoffs, though, both have quieted down quite a bit from the clip they were playing at in the regular season.
McQuaide will be looking to pick apart the secondary and doing that will likely involve getting the ball to receiver Luke Colella. The ex-Princeton Tiger has been a feature piece of the passing attack. Colella leads the team with 1,013 yards and eight touchdowns, averaging 13.9 yards per catch. He and fellow wideout Lucas Kopecky are the top two targets on the team and, when Villanova isn’t running the ball, these two are most likely the ones seeing the action.
When they do run, however, it will be the one-two punch of Ja’Briel Mace and Isaiah Ragland. Both have been excellent for the Wildcats in the postseason this year with each putting up big performances. Ragland rumbled for 152 yards and a score against Harvard three weeks ago while Mace carried the load last week, running for 151 and a TD against Tarleton State. ‘Nova needs to get at least one of them going again this weekend but that task might be easier said than done. The Illinois State defense has been particularly stifling on the ground over the last several weeks.
Junior linebacker Tye Niekamp is leading the way in that department. Niekamp has made some tremendously big stops during the playoff run and has totaled 13 tackles, 1.5 TFLs and a sack since the start of the postseason. Defensive lineman Garret Steffan has also been a significant playmaker, stuffing opposing ball carriers behind the line ten times this year. The reason ISU has gotten this far has been because of the play of the defensive front and, if they can win in the trenches one more time, they just might be booking a trip to Nashville.
Illinois State Offense vs. Villanova Defense
It is the Tommy Rittenhouse and Daniel Sobkowicz show for the Illinois State offense. Rittenhouse has had a fantastic senior season at quarterback, throwing for 3,006 yards and 34 touchdowns. In each of the last two playoff games Rittenhouse has tossed three TDs. Sobkowicz, his top receiver, is equally on fire with five of those scores. That tandem has sliced and diced its way through several stout defenses this year and are looking to carry it through one more time.
Villanova’s defense will have to have an answer for Rittenhouse for one but especially for Sobkowicz because he alone is capable of putting a game out of reach. That means that guys like defensive backs Anthony Hawkins, Zahmir Dawud and Christian Sapp will all need to be at the best they’ve been perhaps all season long. Dawud has a team-high ten pass breakups while Hawkins has eight. All three have a combined four interceptions and it will likely take all three in some capacity to keep Sobkowicz at bay.
The Redbirds will run the ball with 1,000-yard rusher Victor Dawson. While Rittenhouse and Sobkowicz have stolen much of the spotlight in recent weeks, Dawson has played just as important of a role. Over the last two games, Dawson has gone for 285 yards and carried the ball 52 times. He’s helped Illinois State put these games on ice and, if the Wildcats aren’t careful, he can certainly burn them too.
Linebacker Shane Hartzell will have to shoulder the brunt of that burden. The team’s leading tackler with 94 stops, Hartzell shapes up to be the best defensive player on the field come Saturday night. He has made 17.5 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks this year. Getting into the backfield is one of Hartzell’s strong points and doing so against this offense would be extremely disruptive. Throwing Rittenhouse off his rhythm might be the best way to keep the ball out of the hot hands.
Prediction
Neither team has a momentum advantage going into this one and that will be interesting to see how that manifests itself early in the game. Villanova playing at home should have the edge but keeping the crowd into it will be key. Illinois State has made big play after big play in the playoffs, namely from Rittenhouse and Sobkowicz. If they’re able to get one or two early, things get dicey for the Wildcats. That being said, ‘Nova has proven its ability to weather the storm and rally if need be. If McQuaide and Mace should be able to do enough to, at the very least, not lose the game and if they play like they did in the first round against Harvard, they won’t be beat. It will be the Wildcats defense that will need to really buckle down and limit the damage from the ISU offense. Villanova is the better team but the “better team” has yet to get the best of Illinois State this month. The game will come down to the final drive and the Wildcats defense will make the stop needed to send them to Tennessee.
Score Prediction: Illinois State: 24 – Villanova: 27
