Social media is a place that is simultaneously vitriolic and anonymous, which can lead to some unusual claims, opinions and statements. One common fodder in the MLB-sphere frequently surrounds whether or not the team manager is “on the hot seat”. We’ve started to see some of that speculation here in St. Louis, and it got me wondering.
With the Cardinals, the data in evidence does not suggest a manager change is imminent. Beat reporters all appear to “expect” Oli to be retained, and the Cardinals themselves
official statement on the matter is incorporated by simply pointing to the contract with Oli that runs through the end of the 2026 season.
None of that assuages the internet, though, and the chat boards run rampant with speculation of the demise of multiple managers. We all know that contract guaranteed the money more than it guaranteed the spot. Social media already has the Met’s manager and the Braves managers fired. The Nats got an early start on this action. But what about Oli? Here are the pros and cons of such a move. By the way, all this analysis is by extension inclusive of his staff. It’s what they’ve done, as much as what he has done.
Reasons to retain Oli and his staff
- There is that contract. Why would they want to pay 2 managers? One to manage and one to not.
- A new manager won’t make much difference until the talent is changed. Why introduce what is tantamount to a distraction?
- He seems to have the support of the clubhouse. This is tempered with … we don’t know how much change the new regime plans to introduce to that clubhouse. The more change they intend, the less this matters.
- The team culture values continuity.
- Who could do better and how would we know?
Reasons to consider a change
- There is the small matter of 3 consecutive disappointing seasons. How many do they get? Someone once said – the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
- This group of coaches knew going in that developing at the MLB level was crucial. Oli himself described it early season as they want to learn and improve, so they are better later in the season than going in. Walker, Gorman, Pallante, Scott, Saggese, Liberatore. Who got better as the season went on? Anyone?
- The trend in fundamentals in the second half was pretty ragged. Base running mistakes, throwing to the wrong base, missing cut-off men, poor communication leading to plays not made. These are execution issues more than raw talent and the trend was decidedly in the wrong direction. And the whole leaning into bunting thing with a team that can’t bunt. What was up with that?
- It really isn’t that unusual for a new executive team to bring in their own field personnel. It’s not required, but not that strange either.
- Tactically, Oli does OK. But, he seems to struggle with assembling match-ups that maximize player contributions. That’s almost a requirement in the game today, especially for small market teams. How much of this is a talent issue and how much of this is a line-up construction issue is unclear.
So, really, one can look at this situation and conclude that Oli and his staff should be retained or that they should be dismissed and each side can have some logical basis for said conclusion. But what we don’t know is how much change the new management team envisions and how fast they intend to move.
If they see a multi-year rebuild centered on prospect acquisition and development, keeping the existing major league staff intact makes most sense, for now. If they intend to re-work the major league roster quickly and deeply, then perhaps bringing in a new management team is appropriate. I suspect Oli and his staff face a grim reality. Just as they look at trading players in the light of “Will this player be with the Cardinals during the next winning era”, upper management likely looks at the field manager and coaching staff the same way, and just as likely concludes that they will not.
Should some staff changes be expected?
This might be the more likely outcome, as front offices have tended toward giving less sway to the Manager regarding who staffs key positions such as Pitching Coach, Hitting Coach, etc. I think even in today’s game, the Bench Coach is tied directly to the Manager, but others less so.
With the Pitching Coach, the reality is that Dusty Blake has been on the job three years and none of those years has been particularly good. In fairness, the talent level has been sub-par but Pitching Coaches with good talent and good outcomes typically retain their job a lot longer that Pitching Coaches with poor talent and poor outcomes. As the Cardinals trend younger in the pitching staff, they may determine an early change here is necessary to achieve a new direction.
With the Hitting Coach, the story is much the same. As the talent deteriorated, so did the outcomes. We’ve seen that under multiple hitting coaches recently. It would be a bit unusual to fire a Hitting Coach less than a year into the job, but again, they may want to go a different direction and with younger players coming through the pipeline, they may wish to keep a link with them. One person to keep an eye on … Springfield hitting coach Casey Chenoweth.
I’m not 100% sure when the regime change occurs. The day after the season ends, maybe? Traditionally, organizational meetings occur the last homestand and
Conclusion
One thing that should probably not be discounted. The Cardinals had a pretty solid coaching staff that melted down in 2021-2022, and it seems at times that they still feel the ripple effects of that. Shildt was fired unceremoniously at the end of 2021, with no plan in place. Maddux and Albert left unexpectedly at the end of 2023. It is not ordinary that both the PC and HC walk away. Both landed other gigs almost immediately, which tells us they weren’t just tired of coaching or in need of a break, the issue was here in St. Louis. All this left the Cardinals reeling without a plan. They ended up with development opportunities in the field staff ranks, with both Oli and Dusty getting their first MLB experience in 2023. Runway runs out for these guys, too, no?
I don’t fully expect any sweeping change, although some incremental ones should probably be expected as organic change occurs. But I would not be shocked, either. The key for me is how aggressive Chaim Bloom intends to be. That is an unknown for me, but I suspect we will begin to find out quite quickly.
