Last week ATS: 8-8 (3-5 National, 5-3 B1G)
Season ATS: 38-40 (12-19 National, 26-21 B1G)
Last week certainly had some frustrating games. Auburn narrowly missing the cover against Oklahoma. Oregon falling just short of covering a big spread against Oregon State.
Then there was the Illinois debacle. I feel like I have to apologize to the Indiana Hoosiers for doubting them. Curt Cignetti’s team certainly made me eat my words.
This week we get back on the winning track, closing out September with a bang, and setting the table for a profitable October.
National Games
No. 4 LSU v. No. 13 Ole Miss (-1.5) – 3:30
p.m. ET – ABC For some reason I’m still not impressed with Ole Miss. I know Trinidad Chambliss has thrown for over 300 yards in each of the last two games, while also doing damage with his legs. I’m just not sure he’ll be able to replicate the success this week against an LSU defense that is exceptionally better than what Brian Kelly has put on the field over the last few seasons.
Maybe I shouldn’t be as impressed with LSU since their win over Clemson doesn’t look all that good anymore. The only time this season the Tigers scored more than 24 points came in last week’s win over Southeastnorthwestcentral Louisiana State Tech A&M.
In a game that is pretty much a coin flip, I’ll take Garrett Nussmeier since he is experienced enough to not be rattled by the atmosphere in Oxford on Saturday afternoon.
LSU 33, Ole Miss 24
No. 17 Alabama v. No. 5 Georgia (-2.5) – 7:30 p.m. ET – ABC
We might have overreacted to Alabama being cooked after the Crimson Tide lost to Florida State in their opener. Since then Ty Simpson and the Alabama offense have been going through opponents like a hot knife through butter.
Most recently the Crimson Tide dissected Luke Fickell and Wisconsin. Ryan Williams made people remember he was in the discussion as the best receiver in the nation last year by catching five passes for 165 yards and two touchdowns against Wisconsin.
Last time we saw Georgia they were able to survive in overtime at Tennessee. I know the Bulldogs have won 33 straight at home, but streaks are meant to be broken. Unlike the Volunteers, I feel like if Alabama has Georgia on the ropes they’ll be able to finish the job.
This game could go either way, so I’ll take the points against a Georgia squad that I haven’t been all that impressed with so far this year. Ty Simpson continues his stellar play and keeps the Crimson Tide in the College Football Playoff hunt.
Alabama 31, Georgia 27
B1G Games
No. 21 USC (-6.5) v. No. 23 Illinois – 12:00 p.m. ET – FOX
I don’t really know what to do with Illinois right now. I was confident last week they could beat Indiana before the Hoosiers demolished them in Bloomington. Can Bret Bielema’s team rebound from such a crushing loss? I know practice for Illinois is going to be hell this week ahead of another tough contest with USC.
Could USC be back? The Trojans are playing good defense, they are doing a great job running the football with Waymond Jordan and Eli Sanders, and Makai Lemon has been one of the best wide receivers in the country this season.
The early start does scare me, but I think USC can put together a similar game plan as Indiana and send Illinois to their second straight loss.
USC 38, Illinois 28
No. 6 Oregon v. No. 3 Penn State (-3.5) – 7:30 p.m. ET – NBC
Anyone who backed Oregon the last two weeks has to be sick to their stomach. After the Ducks blew a cover in the fourth quarter against Northwestern, last week they fell about a point short of covering against Oregon State. At least any Oregon backs this week don’t have to worry about being a favorite. Aside from the gambling issues the last two games, Oregon has taken care of business otherwise.
The Ducks are still fast and aggressive, making them a handful in any contest.
If we are being honest, I think Penn State is one of the most overrated teams in the country. Drew Allar isn’t as good as the hype, James Franklin is a loser in big games, and Jim Knowles is inconsistent as a defensive coordinator.
I’m sure it won’t be fun for Oregon to go into Beaver Stadium at night, but I think the Ducks have enough swagger to where they’ll quiet the crowd with some early big plays. The Nittany Lions just don’t have the speed to keep up in this one.
Oregon 31, Penn State 23
No. 1 Ohio State (-8.5) v. Washington – 3:30 p.m. ET – CBS
Ohio State gets back to work this week when they head out west to take on Washington. This will be the first time the Buckeyes have played in Seattle since 2007. The last time the schools met was in the 2019 Rose Bowl, where the Buckeyes blew an easy cover in the fourth quarter in the 28-23 win over the Huskies in Urban Meyer’s final game as head coach at Ohio State.
We’ll learn a lot about the Buckeyes this week since they’ll be playing their first road game of the season. Husky Stadium isn’t an easy place to play. Then again, Ohio State should know how to handle some noise since they play in one of the biggest stadiums in college football. Still, it will be interesting to see how Julian Sayin handles his first road start.
Washington has taken care of business so far this season. While their wins over Colorado State, UC-Davis, and Washington State haven’t come against a murderers row of non-conference opponents, the Huskies are lighting up the scoreboard behind quarterback Demond Williams Jr.
Now he’ll get to try to do so against the top scoring defense in the country. Defensive coordinator Matt Patricia has likely been like a mad scientist, trying to create schemes and looks that’ll confuse the quarterback of the Huskies.
This might be a little too soon for such a big test for Washington. The Huskies just don’t have the defensive talent to slow down Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate, and the rest of the Buckeye receivers. Add in wild card Bo Jackson and this feels like a game where Ohio State creates a little distance in the second half and wins by at least 10 points.
Ohio State 35, Washington 20
Rapid Fire Picks
National
No. 8 Florida State (-6.5) v. Virginia – Friday 7:00 p.m. ET – ESPN
Florida State 38, Virginia 23
No. 24 TCU v. Arizona State (-2.5) – Friday 9:00 p.m. ET – FOX
TCU 34, Arizona State 30
No. 22 Notre Dame (-4.5) v. Arkansas – 12:00 p.m. ET – ABC
Notre Dame 37, Arkansas 27
Auburn v. No. 9 Texas A&M (-6.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – ESPN
Texas A&M 31, Auburn 20
Arizona v. No. 14 Iowa State (-6.5) – 7:00 p.m. ET – ESPN
Iowa State 28, Arizona 24
B1G
Rutgers v. Minnesota (-5.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – BTN
Rutgers 24, Minnesota 21
No. 11 Indiana (-7.5) v. Iowa – 3:30 p.m. ET – Peacock
Indiana 27, Iowa 14
UCLA v. Northwestern (-6.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – BTN
Northwestern 20, UCLA 17
