There’s a scene in “Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers” in which Samwise Gamgee and Frodo Baggins, having left the Fellowship to make their way across Middle Earth on their own, complain about the monotonous,
fog-heavy and granite- crusted landscape their bare hairy feet have been scrambling over for days. Sam drily states that the place looks “strangely familiar.” An exasperated Frodo sinks in on himself, and moans: “It’s because we’ve been here before. We’re going in circles!”
A fourth postseason guide in a row — Giants fans have certainly been here before and before and before. Caught like a match-less sock on this endless spin cycle of the 162-game season. Six months of baseball in the books and where are we? Winning? Losing? Two years ago the Giants fired their manager. A year ago they fired their President of Baseball Operations. Today they fired another manager. Are we going in circles?
I am Frodo. I feel trapped in this cruel centrifugal force as well. Resigned to it even — that all my future Octobers will start like this. A ramblin’ preamble, some over-stuffed analysis. Put another post in the books, grab another click, whirl around the drain. Am I even a Giants fan? Or just a Dodger hater? It’s depressing and two-dimensional to be so negatively-defined…
Ah well…
American League Wild Card Series
Detroit Tigers (6) at Cleveland Guardians (3)
Not to sound like a coastal elite here, but a series between two so-so AL Central teams — do we really care? Detroit has one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball (Tarik Skubal) at the top of their rotation. Cleveland has one of the most underrated all-around talents in baseball (Jose Ramirez) playing third base. Other than the four at-bats of the series between those two players, not much else to get excited about.
But if you were to look at this series with a wider lens, there’s a clear choice. The Tigers fell into the postseason like one falls out of a burning building — screaming, out-of-control, bracing for impact, and saved only by the cardboard dumpster they happened to land in. The Guardians were the Tigers of 2024 — but even more improbable. They were 11 games behind in the division race at the start of the month, and yesterday they won it, on the last game of the season, with a walk-off HBP.
When in doubt, root for the hot hand. Root for Stephen Vogt — who didn’t wear batting gloves, which is always cooler than wearing batting gloves.
My pick: Stephen Vogt puts himself in as a pinch-hitter, launches a tater, Guardians win it
Boston Red Sox (5) at New York Yankees (4)
The Giants and Red Sox became inextricably linked this season thanks to the Rafael Devers trade. The Sox were just a game above .500 when they offloaded Devers into our desperate arms. While the new star took his time to adjust to his new environs, Boston bolted for the postseason, going 52-37 to claim a playoff berth for the first time since, funnily enough, 2021.
There’s a small poisonous pip inside of me that wants Boston to fail because of…this. This…this irrational and fickle belief that the Sox are to blame for San Francisco’s 40-50 record. They crossed paths and suddenly their trajectories swapped. Something strange went down in their dealings. Something witch-y. To be clear, I don’t think Devers is cursed. The Giants are a much better team with him in the line-up, while the players Posey pawned off have been non-factors, or even problematic, for Boston.
Hicks has been buried on the IL after posting a 8.20 ERA. Harrison spent most of his time in Triple-A Worcester where the brass put him on a 4-seam detox. They pitched 30.2 innings for the Sox after the trade, while Devers played in 90 games and logged nearly 400 plate appearances.
A fair assessment would be that the trade worked out for both parties — but then why are they the ones playing October baseball, and the Giants are watching from home?
All that to say, I obviously don’t want the Yankees to win — just trying to be honest with myself and my emotions during this raw and vulnerable time.
My pick: Red Sox, Kyle Harrison makes playoff roster with Lucas Giolito out, pitches into 6th inning of winner-take-all, Game 3 in New York
National League Wild Card
Cincinnati Reds (6) at Los Angeles Dodgers (3)
This is new. This is fun. The Dodgers have to play in a Wild Card game for the first time in four years. How embarrassing for them. How completely demeaning and demoralizing that they didn’t earn a first-round bye, that they didn’t have one of the best records in baseball. How utterly embarrassing.
My pick: Reds sweep. A boy could dream.
San Diego Padres (5) at Chicago Cubs (4)
The Chicago Cubs last postseason appearance was a do-or-die Wild Card game against the Colorado Rockies in 2018.
Further proof of the relativity of time. Each year that passes without playoff relevance, without a ring, for the Cubbies must feel like the start of another horrible century-dragging drought. Blink and 108 years pass. Blink again — 108 more.
To the ears of Padres fans, that’s a dreary song played on a pretty cheap violin. There are three teams in the postseason this year who haven’t even won a championship, and San Diego is obviously one of them. That makes you an automatic underdog in my book, and worth rooting for — though that soft-hearted logic might be problematic for many of you. I get it. And rest-assured, though I’m a San Diegan, pulling for a division rival isn’t as easy as flipping a switch. And the Cubs have got some cool stuff going on. They got some flair. I like Pete Crow-Armstong. I like how his hyphenated surname bends around his number, and I like watching it disappear in a cloud of dust as he makes tracks around the diamond. To be honest though, I’ve cooled on Kyle Tucker ever since he started wearing batting gloves, and I’ll go ice-cold on him when he signs an insane $500 million deal with the Dodgers in the offseason (unless they want to bring Conforto back…).
Is this inevitable? Is there a way to dodge this near-certain outcome and keep Tucker out of the NL West for the next decade? Maybe if the Cubs do well, if they make a deep postseason run, if they win it all, he’ll be enticed to stick around in Wrigleyville.
My pick: Cubbies go all the way, Tucker stays.
