The San Francisco 49ers take on the Denver Broncos in a battle of contenders at Levi’s Stadium in Week 4, with the chance to start the season 4-0 and jump in the division.
The 49ers have been rolling offensively, ranking among the top in the NFL in nearly every key offensive category, as the team has especially excelled in the passing game. Brock Purdy has looked like an MVP candidate, completing passes at a high rate, while making some eye-catching plays on a weekly basis, and keeping the ball protected.
The Broncos, on the other hand, have rebounded nicely from their Week 1 humiliation to the Kansas City Chiefs. They comfortably beat the Jacksonville Jaguars at home in Week 2, while getting by the Rams on a late fourth-quarter drive in Week 3.
Currently, San Francisco enters the game as a 2.5-point favorite, with the over/under at 47.5 points.
How can the 49ers pull off the victory on a hot day in Santa Clara? Here are three keys to a Niners win over the Broncos.
Win behind the offensive line
Under Sean Payton, the Broncos have been generally above average at defending the run, while being elite overall as a defensive unit with Vance Joseph calling the plays.
Last season, the Broncos ranked 16th on defense in EPA allowed per rush, while they were all the way up at third in 2024. What about this year? They’re dead last at No. 32, being one of the few teams to allow a positive EPA allowed per rush.
Yes, part of that is because the Broncos looked atrocious against Kenneth Walker and the Kansas City Chiefs, missing a whopping 28 tackles as Walker went for 173 yards and a touchdown on the ground. But Bhayshul Tuten also went for five yards a carry for the Jaguars in Week 2, and Kyren Williams had a great game as the Rams ran for five yards per carry as a collective last weekend.
The 49ers haven’t been an elite rushing team yet, but finally started to put things together against the Cardinals, as Christian McCaffrey averaged five yards per carry on the ground.
It will be a tough matchup to run the ball, but San Francisco could have the advantage in the trenches on offense, and they’ll need to find some success running the ball to complement their pass game.
Make this a George Kittle and CMC game
The Broncos’ starting linebackers Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad have not been playing great to start the season. That’ll be a matchup Kyle Shanahan circles down to exploit this weekend, which could mean a lot of volume for Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle.
This is already setting up to be a big McCaffrey game with the rushing opportunities, but he’ll also have a lot of opportunity in the air as Brock Purdy gets the ball out quickly against this Denver pass rush.
But with strong cornerback play on the boundary, this could be another game plan funneled through the tight end. Kittle is coming off two huge weeks. He had four catches for 80 yards and a touchdown against the Dolphins and followed that up with six catches for 82 yards and two scores against the Cardinals.
Denver gave up 71 yards to Travis Kelce back in Week 1, while Tyler Higbee went for eight catches, 62 yards, and a touchdown on 11 targets against the Rams last weekend.
Especially with Mike Evans being a game-time decision with the rib, this feels like a more centralized game plan that should be focused on McCaffrey and Kittle.
Play clean football
One area the 49ers have excelled in over the past two seasons has been penalties. San Francisco ranked top three in the NFL in penalties allowed a season ago, while they’re currently fourth in 2026 with 5.3 per game.
The 49ers have generally played clean football on both sides of the ball, which has given them an advantage even when they haven’t been as strong on the defensive side of the ball with their injuries.
Not only that, San Francisco, and by default Brock Purdy, have taken exceptional care of the football so far, ranking fifth in turnovers with just 0.7 per game. Meanwhile, Denver ranks closer to the middle of the pack in both marks.
The Broncos are 15th in penalties per game (7.3) and 17th in turnovers per game (1.3). They’re a much more volatile team that we’ve seen really struggle early before coming on strong in the second half of games.
San Francisco has played well with a lead this season. While the Broncos are always dangerous comeback threats, playing clean football as they have should put the 49ers in a good spot against this specific opponent.
