The Red Sox have found themselves in a bit of a grind throughout September. They pulled out an essential, though ugly, win on Wednesday night against the Athletics. A win is a win, which is the story in September when you just need to survive and advance. The Red Sox players have dealt with a decent amount of adversity, e.g. their GM trading their franchise player in June in what amounted to a salary dump, promising to use that money to buy at the deadline, and then never doing so. Or the season-ending
injuries to Triston Casas and Marcelo Mayer. Or the regular-season ending injury to the biggest catalyst of their season, Roman Anthony. Or still more, the rotation that is now down to the #13 and #14 starting pitchers in the pecking order.
The issue in September is that unusual things happen all around you. The teams that are forgotten can suddenly reappear. The squads that sold at the deadline because it wasn’t their year? They still have to take the field, often with hidden gems that they didn’t know would even contribute this year. Someone like Connelly Early. Other teams shut their pitchers and injury-ridden players down early. Seemingly easy games become tough, and vice versa.
The Houston Astros, who have led the AL West for months, found themselves in second place on Wednesday behind a scorching-hot Mariners squad, and now are dealing with a Yordan Alvarez ankle injury to go with numerous others. The Los Angeles Dodgers, who liked like a contender to set the single-season wins record before the season, have virtually no chance of a first-round bye and will have to hold off the San Diego Padres in the final days just to avoid the fifth seed. The New York Mets recently lost eight consecutive games and are barely holding on to the final Wild Car spot, a spot that is barely going to clear the .500 mark.
The Arizona Diamondbacks lost Corbin Burnes for the year early in the season, lost their top two closers in Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk for the season, had a divide in their locker room in July regarding Ketel Marte taking too much PTO, which led to selling key pieces Josh Naylor and Merrill Kelly at the deadline. What have they done since August 2nd? Gone 26-17 and moved within 1.5 games of the final playoff spot. Explain that one.
Which brings us to the Cleveland Guardians, the biggest threat to the Red Sox’ playoff spot. Cleveland has an “active payroll” of $49M, which is 26th in baseball. Two weeks ago today, the Guardians were 11 games back in the AL Central. They enter Thursday just 4.5 games back in the division and face Tarik Skubal this afternoon with a chance to cut it to 3.5. The Guardians have a run differential of -25 this season, compared to the Red Sox’ +104, and yet are somehow two games in the loss column behind Boston in the standings.
Stephen Vogt won the Manager of the Year award in 2024, and while it’s highly unlikely that he does so again, one could argue that he’s done a more impressive job amidst chaos this season. Vogt held things together during a gambling investigation that not only took starting pitcher Luis Ortiz out of the equation but also his star closer, Emmanuel Clase, in late July. From 2022-2024, Clase had 133 saves, which was 30 more than any other closer in baseball (Josh Hader, 103).
Cleveland, who was 54-54 on the July 31st trade deadline date, traded Shane Bieber to the Blue Jays, despite his imminent return to the rotation from his 2024 Tommy John surgery.
After inexplicably choosing 39-year-old Carlos Santana in the offseason over Josh Naylor (and even paying him more!), the team designated Santana on August 25th to “play the kids.” When they released Santana, the Guardians had just lost three consecutive games by the scores of 10-0, 5-0, and 9-0 to Texas and Tampa Bay. Since that date, Cleveland is 16-5.
How the hell are they doing this? Well, as usual, when these things happen, the answer is pitching.
Since that date, only three regulars have a wRC+ over 100: Kyle Manzardo, Jose Ramirez, and Steven Kwan. Manzardo has 5 home runs and 12 RBI in 18 games, and Ramirez is, of course, doing what he does in what could be a Hall of Fame career. Cleveland’s ERA is 2.54 as a team, which is three-quarters of a run better than any other team in baseball during that time.
Gavin Williams has become the ace of the staff, with a 3.06 ERA and 11-5 record over 30 starts this season. Williams came within one out of a no-hitter on August 6th, broken up on a Juan Soto home run. Last night, he kept the train rolling with five shutout innings, striking out nine.
Parker Messick made his Major League debut on August 20th. He has pitched 6+ innings and allowed one run or less in four of his five starts, with an ERA that sits at 1.84 and a 3-0 record.
Joey Cantillo has made five starts since August 9th, with a hard-to-explain minor league demotion occurring in the middle. He has a 1.21 ERA in 29 2/3 innings in that time, and a 3-1 record.
Tanner Bibee has been a horse all season long, totaling 170 1/3 innings, but the results have been inconsistent until his most recent start. In that one, Bibee threw a 2-hit, complete-game shutout.
Logan Allen and Slade Cecconi have 4.36 and 4.39 ERAs, respectively, and have been sufficient back-end starters for the Guardians all season long.
Closer Cade Smith was thrust into the role when Emmanuel Clase was suspended for the rest of the season while a gambling investigation continues. Smith had been one of the better middle relievers in the league, and has been no different in the ninth inning. During this 16-5 run that Cleveland is on, Smith has pitched in 13 of those games, saving 8 of them, and he has a shocking 0:23 BB:K ratio during that time (12 1/3 innings).
Thankfully, the Red Sox hold the tiebreaker over the Guardians, something they did not hold over the Texas Rangers. The Rangers were just as terrifying a threat three days ago, but have since been swept by the Astros, which has all but buried them, five back in the loss column.
Remarkably, it’s been just two weeks since Roman Anthony injured his oblique, even though it feels like two months. The Sox are 5-7 in that span, and will soon finish the season facing the top two seeds in the American League, in Toronto and at home against Detroit. I’d be willing to wager a Clase-Ortiz money line parlay that some more weird stuff will happen over these final ten days, and I do know that no one is going to feel bad for you. Certainly not the Guardians, winners of six straight, who have been through the ringer and have the reigning manager of the year running the show. Buckle up!
