Over the weekend, the Phillies confirmed our assumptions about Zack Wheeler’s status for 2025.
Diagnosed with venous thoracic outlet syndrome, Wheeler will soon have thoracic outlet decompression surgery that will keep him out of action for the next 6-8 months, a timeline that could put him on course to rejoin the team sometime between mid-February and mid-April 2026. But any hopes he could return for the postseason were, not surprisingly, dashed.
So the Phillies will soldier on.
They will try to win the World Series without their Game 1 starter, their ace, the best pitcher in baseball since joining the Phils prior to the 2020 season. It is impossible to replace someone who has put up a 2.18 ERA in 11 career postseason starts over 70 1/3 innings with a 0.725 WHIP.
The Phillies will try.
Since the news of Wheeler’s blood clot and subsequent revelation he would miss the rest of the season, the Phils have gone 6-1. They won the finale of last weekend’s four-game series against the Nationals, dominated the Mariners in a three-game sweep and took two of three from the Nats at Citizens Bank Park this weekend. In doing so, they enter their crucial three-game series against the Mets Monday night at Citi Field, a house of horrors for them the last few seasons, with a comfortable seven-game lead in the NL East.
They are giving us a window into how they’re going to win the World Series, even without their ace. Here are 10 reasons why they will do it.
Another Ace
Lining up Zack Wheeler and Cristopher Sanchez as part of a righty-lefty, one-two punch in the postseason would have been a nightmare for Phillies opponents and, sadly, they will be deprived of that. But make no mistake, the Phils still do have a bona fide ace/Game 1 starter in Sanchez. He may not win the Cy Young Award, but he’ll likely be runner-up. He’s second in the NL in fWAR (4.7) behind only Paul Skenes (5.4), and will be the best starting pitcher in the National League playoff field. A 2.46 ERA in 25 starts over 157.0 innings is stellar work.
You know all the numbers. We don’t need to do three long paragraphs on this. Sanchez has been building his resume for three years now and appears ready to assume the mantle of staff anchor.
A Deep Rotation
Perhaps the most important developments over the last week were the starts by Ranger Suarez and Jesus Luzardo, the presumed Games 2 and 3 starters of any playoff series at the moment. Suarez was magnificent on Sunday against Washington, twirling seven innings of three-hit, shutout ball, piling up a career-high 11 strikeouts in the process. That’s on the heels of a 6 2/3 inning outing against the Mariners where he gave up two runs on four hits with 10 Ks. He has not walked a batter in his last two starts.
It’s been a roller coaster of a season for Luzardo, who started off red-hot (2.15 ERA through his first 11 starts) then got ice-cold (8.04 ERA in his next 10), and is now scorching once again (2.32 ERA in his last five starts). He was excellent last week against Seattle, going six innings and allowing just one run on three hits with 12 strikeouts and no walks. He ranks 9th in MLB in fWAR (3.8), which kind of defies logic but, hey, the numbers are the numbers!
And then there’s Taijuan Walker and Aaron Nola. If Nola pitches like his old self, he could move into the conversation as a Game 2 or 3 starter in a playoff series. After getting beat up in his first start off the injured list last Sunday in Washington, Nola responded with six innings in which he allowed two earned runs and five hits with six strikeouts and just one walk. His velocity was up, another really good sign. Walker gave up a first inning three-run homer on Friday and then nothing else in the Phils’ 5-4 loss. His 3.44 ERA in 96 2/3 innings and remarkable consistency gives the Phils an unexpected option in the postseason.
Two MVP Candidates
It will be difficult for either Kyle Schwarber or Trea Turner to overtake Shohei Ohtani for NL MVP honors, but they are giving it their best shot. Turner (5.8) is hot on Ohtani’s (6.0) heels in terms of fWAR, and could overtake him by season’s end. He has been incredibly hot of late, now hitting .300/.354/.449 on the season with 32 steals, all while playing vastly improved defense at shortstop. He has been the leadoff hitter the Phillies were missing over these last four seasons.
Schwarber cooled a bit over the weekend, ending a stretch of 15 straight series in which he homered. Still, he remains tied for the NL lead in home runs with Ohtani, 45, and leads the league in RBIs (109). Only Ohtani has a higher wRC+ (171-157).
This doesn’t even take into account Bryce Harper, who has smashed 11 home runs since the All-Star break, with a 144 wRC+ and a long postseason pedigree. Lots of teams don’t have this.
A True Closer
Yes, Jhoan Duran blew his first save as a Phillie on Friday night. Give the young Nationals hitters a little credit. They poked a double down the right field line, got a clean single to tie the game and J.T. Realmuto threw a ball into left field to allow the winning run to score. For only the second time all year, the Phillies blew an 8th inning lead. It happens. Duran danced around a little trouble on Saturday night and secured the save, his 7th in eight chances since joining the Phillies.
So no, he’s not automatic. Any layer of invincibility fans felt about Duran heading into the weekend are gone. But that doesn’t mean he isn’t still an incredible weapon in the playoffs. He will be the best 9th inning pitcher in the National League field, something the Phillies could never boast in 2022, ‘23 or ‘24. There is still an extremely high degree of confidence that, if they enter the 9th with cushion, even just one run, they’re going to win the game.
Tanner Scott
The entire rest of the bullpen has been fantastic since the second half and especially since Duran’s arrival.
The biggest, and most important, surprise has been Tanner Banks. Banks was fine last season, with a 3.98 ERA in 72 1/3 innings, but he wasn’t someone that could be relied on in high leverage situations. Boy has that changed in 2025. In 56 1/3 innings he has a 2.88 ERA and has been especially devastating against left-handed hitters. On Sunday, he entered the 8th inning with the bases loaded and no one out, as the Phils clung to a 3-0 lead.
He got James Wood to hit a sharp grounder to Bryson Stott to start a 4-6-3 double play and then coaxed a fly out from CJ Abrams to center to escape the inning allowing just the one run. In the absence of Jose Alvarado, more was asked of Banks by Rob Thomson, and with Alvarado unavailable for the playoffs, he will continue to be thrust into more high leverage roles.
Bryson Stott
A slight change in Stott’s mechanics has made all the difference in the world, now holding the bat lower and closer to his body in recent weeks, with less wiggle and movement pre-pitch.
It looks kind of like Schwarber’s set-up, no? Well, the results haven’t exactly been Schwarbarian, but they have been stunning. He’s batting .339/.406/.571 in August with a .978 OPS, 167 wRC+, five doubles, a triple and two homers.
This is the guy we saw in 2023 that made us so sure we were looking at a future perennial All Star. If he continues to mash like this, the lineup become much deeper and much scarier.
J.T. Realmuto
I documented Realmuto’s resurgence last week, and over the weekend he continued to wail on the ball. Can he stay this hot through October and continue to provide this team with a reliable clean-up hitter? It remains to be seen, but this is as good as J.T. has looked since coming to the Phillies, and just in time, too.
MLB Parity
Which teams in the National League frighten you if you’re the Phillies?
The Brewers? After winning 14 straight Milwaukee lost six of nine heading into Monday, and their lead over the Cubs in the NL Central is down to five games. They don’t have a single player in the top-10 of NL MVP odds. I’m skeptical they have the advantage over the Phils in a playoff series.
The Dodgers? They may not even win their division. Riddled with pitching injuries and dealing with a subpar season from Mookie Betts, L.A. is no behemoth, despite their payroll. The Phils have a 2.5 game lead on them for the No. 2 seed in the playoffs.
The Padres? They’re at least on the ascension, tied with the Dodgers atop the NL West. But San Diego has holes. Their lineup can go cold, just like the Phillies’, and they have an inferior rotation to the Phils’ even without Wheeler.
The Mets? We’ll get a better sense of where things stand by Wednesday night, but having built a seven-game lead in the East, and watching the Mets engage in a team-wide implosion since the All Star Break doesn’t make me too worried.
The Cubs? Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker were in the midst of a brutal slump, although both appear to be emerging. That said, their pitching staff has a lot of question marks, too.
The Reds? They trail the Mets by 1.5 games for the final wild card spot. They played the Phillies tough last week, but who are you putting your money on in the postseason, Philadelphia’s pedigree or Cincinnati?
Postseason Schedule
If the Phillies are able to skip the Wild Card series, they will only need three starters for the Division Series, due to an extra off-day that wasn’t in the schedule last year. That means lining up their three best starters with Walker and one of the other starters available in the bullpen.
Yes, it should remain a goal for the Phillies to skip the wild card round. With an offense as inconsistent as Philly’s, the fewer games you need them to not be cold, the better.
Hunger
Wheeler’s departure may have been a wake-up call this team needed to up their game. I know that’s simplistic sports-radio caller-type stuff, but maybe it’s true. They were certainly hungry coming into the season, knowing it might be this last group’s opportunity to win a championship before major changes were made. I compared it to the 1980 season, the last hurrah for a team that came close in 1976-78 then suffered a serious letdown in ‘79.
It’s an intangible that you can’t find on Fangraphs, Baseball Savant or Baseball Reference. And perhaps it won’t mean anything. The Phils had all the momentum in the world heading into Games 6 and 7 of the 2023 NLCS, and couldn’t get the job done.
Contrary to popular belief, the Phillies don’t need to be “hot” heading into the playoffs. They weren’t “hot” going down the stretch in 2022. They just started playing crisp baseball, got clutch hitting from everyone in the lineup, and the bullpen did a pretty good job locking things down most nights. The offense doesn’t need to be “hot,” they just need to not be “cold.” They have to play like they did against Seattle last week.
Grind out at-bats. Don’t swing at pitches out of the zone. Make the starters work. Get to the bullpen early and often. Square up pitches over the plate. Take your walks. Avoid walking others. Play good defense. Take the extra base. Steal bags. Be aggressive. Force the action.
Simply put, this is perhaps the best team in the National League. They are a favorite to win it all, even without Wheeler. All the pieces are still there.
