In yesterday’s SB Nation Reacts survey, Brady posed the question, “Who will return more when they’re invariably traded? Robbie Ray or Luis Arraez?”
I have to say that after going through the comments section I was a surprised by the fan responses even before knowing the poll results. Most seem to think that Robbie Ray would bring back the most value in trade, and that seems to be an opinion formed by two tenets: (1) everyone needs pitching and (2) fans want Luis Arraez to stick around. That’s not
an outlier opinion, of course. At the end of May, this site’s founder, Grant Brisbee, wrote for The Athletic that the Giants should extend Arraez.
A few days later, I ranked him as the Giants’ third-most valuable trade chip, but acknowledged that there might not be many teams where he’d be a great fit, limiting a potential return.
Then there’s the factor of what teams value more: offense or defense. Only 11 of the 30 teams have positive defense and offense at second base. Plus, the teams that could use a boost at second base aren’t playoff teams for the most part, and the ones that could be are actually . Only the Rays (+0.3 fWAR, 100 wRC+), but 20 of the 30 teams have at least average defense there. So, how many of those teams would seek an upgrade at the position?
I mention all this to say that there seems to be a strong emotional component when considering Luis Arraez. Not many fans would log on to FanDuel and bet that the Giants would win on a given day without him on the team, I suspect. He was the gamble Buster Posey took this offseason — along with bringing Ron Washington onto the coaching staff — and it has paid out more than what could’ve reasonably been expected. Arraez is simply the 8th-most valuable player in Major League Baseball right now. His 3.3 fWAR places him in this top 10:
10. Nick Kurtz, A’s: 3.3 fWAR
9. JJ Wetherholt, Cards: 3.3 fWAR
8. Luis Arraez, Giants: 3.3 fWAR
7. Corbin Carroll, Dbacks: 3.5 fWAR
6. Kevin McGonigle, Tigers: 3.5 fWAR
5. Otto Lopez, Marlins: 3.6 fWAR
4. Dillon Dingler, Tigers: 3.9 fWAR
3. Yordan Alvarez, Astros: 4.0 fWAR
2. Bobby Witt Jr., Royals: 4.6 fWAR
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs: 5.3 fWAR
This is a testament to his improved defense. His hitting line of .326/.361/.463 is just 89th (126 wRC+). According to FanGraphs, his +8.1 Defensive Runs Above Average is 11th-best in the sport. Not quite the best second baseman, though. JJ Wetherholt ranks first with +11.4 Defensive Runs Above Average. Also, by SABR’s Defensive Index (SDI), a component of the Gold Glove voting, he’s far less impressive: 0.9 SDI. Just 8th out of 14 qualifiers.
So, do fan emotions have it right? Is Arraez more valuable to the Giants on the roster than as a trade chip?
I’ll still say no.
Arraez has been traded twice in his career (in 2023 from the Twins to the Marlins, in 2024 from the Marlins to the Padres) for 7 total players. Yesterday, I looked at the history of trading ace-type pitchers at the deadline and came away with the feeling that the Giants would have a tough time moving a player not only because of the entertainment cost but because the odds of getting back a truly great trade package are slim. I don’t feel that’s the case here with Arraez.
Here are the players traded for Luis Arraez:
OF Byron Chourio (18 at the time, now 21, has not appeared in MLB)
INF Jose Salas (20 at the time, now 23, has not appeared in MLB)
SP Pablo Lopez (27 then, now 29, an All-Star for the Twins who has amassed 9.6 fWAR in 2+ seasons and 455 IP)
RP Woo-Suk Go (25 then, now 27, has not appeared in MLB, has not appeared in MLB)
OF Dillon Head (19 then, now 21, has not appeared in MLB) — #25 in Miami’s system
OF Jakob Marsee (23 then, now 25; 96 RC+, 2.1 fWAR in 585 PA across 2 seasons for Marlins)
OF Nathan Martorella (23 then, now 25, just released, has not appeared in MLB)
In both instances, the trading team wound up getting back a major leaguer. It worked out best for the Twins, of course, because Pablo Lopez has been great for their rotation and the Giants sorely need starting pitching, but the truth is that the Giants might be able to get a couple of arms for him, or at least some intriguing volume that has more on-paper promise than what happened in the Tyler Rogers and Camilo Doval deals last season.
Another trade to think about was the Orioles trade of Manny Machado back in 2018. No, no, no — not saying that Luis Arraez is Manny Machado… he’s more like 75% of Manny Machado, and in that deal Baltimore made with the Dodgers, they got back five players for Machado’s expiring contract.
The Dodgers sent the then-#84 prospect of MLB Pipeline’s top 100, OF Yusniel Diaz, along with pitcher Dean Kremer (their #28 prospect), third baseman Rylan Bannon, and major leaguers Breyvic Valera and Zach Pop. Let’s round down on the 75% to say that the Giants could get three players, none who would be on MLB Pipeline’s top 100, but possibly one of whom would be a current major leaguer (or on a 40-man roster). The other two could be in the back half of the receiving team’s top 30.
Currently, the worst teams at second base that otherwise have playoff aspirations are:
- Tampa Bay, +0.1 fWAR (82 wRC+)
- Washington, +0.4 fWAR (63 WRC+)
- Athletics, +0.6 fWAR (94 wRC+)
- Minnesota (lol), +1.0 fWAR (97 wRC+)
- Philadelphia, +1.0 fWAR (81 wRC+)
Somehow, I doubt the Giants would trade with the Athletics for a deadline headline deal like this, but they might also be fine with their tick above average situation same as the Twins. Dave Dombrowski might want to do something to shakeup the Phils’ infield, as Bryson Stott has been worse than the league average offensively for basically his entire career and now he’s scuffling even more this season. And the Rays’ situation is so rough that it’s probably worth addressing at the deadline, too.
Would Tampa Bay do Joe Boyle, Dean Moss, and Jackson Baumeister? Is that too much? Or would Bobby Evans simply kill the deal by reminding Buster Posey of the Matt Duffy trade? Doubtful. How about Alex McFarlane, Gabe Craig, and Raylin Heredia from Philadelphia?
In any case, even on an expiring deal, because he put in the work to make him one of the top up the middle defenders in the sport to go with his elite contact skills, he’s likely to bring back a healthy return. However…
The wisdom of the crowd thinks the pitching’s the thing wherein Buster Posey will catch the most value for the team. This is why I’ve suggested that there’s more of a desire to keep Luis Arraez than there is to keep Ray that’s motivating this result.
One of the reasons why I look to previous trades is to get a sense of how the industry values a player. In Arraez’s case, although he’s older and the contract is less favorable to the acquiring team (lots of money for 50 or so games), he’s somehow better and at an important position. While Ray is a starting pitcher — which always carries value — who saved his season in June (5 starts, 33 IP, 1.36 ERA / 3.20 FIP), he’s never been traded for much.
Jerry Dipoto and Farhan Zaidi balanced their books back in 2024 and prior to that, the Diamondbacks got back Travis Bergen. Before that, he was part of a 3-team trade where the Tigers sent him to Arizona and before that the Nationals traded him to the Tigers for Doug Fister.
Last year, the Rangers sent three pitching prospects to the Diamondbacks for Merrill Kelly. Is that the Ray comp for this year’s deadline? Kohl Drake was their #5 prospect, Mitch Bratt their #9, and David Hagaman their #13. All three are now in Arizona’s top 15. Okay, Drake and Bratt are already on the 40-man, and Bratt has already debuted, so, you could make the case that this is the model.
Ray is younger than Kelly was at the time of the deal, but he also lacks Kelly’s numbers. In 2021, Robbie Ray pitched like Logan Webb does every day he roles out of bed (3.9 fWAR), but since then, in 501 innings, he’s amassed just 4.3 fWAR across five seasons. That’s not great, and it’s not helped by a 4.23 FIP (career: 4.11). He tends to walk guys (career 3.81 BB/9) and give up home runs (1.35 HR/9), but balances those out with strikeouts (10.64 K/9). This year, he’s not striking guys out so much (7.71) while the walks and homers remain consistent. That wasn’t the case with Merrill Kelly last season. At the time of the deal, he was striking guys out above his career average, walking guys around his career average, and allowing slightly fewer home runs than usually. Like Ray today, his deal would expire at season’s end. The Rangers figured they’d catch a guy during his last gasp and the deal worked out just okay (3-3 in 10 starts, a 4.23 ERA, +0.8 FWAR).
But, at the end of the day, either Robbie Ray (the people’s choice) or Luis Arraez will bring back at least a trio of prospects for the Giants. Figure at least one of those would be in the zone of Drew Gilbert or Blade Tidwell, but also consider that the Giants could actually get a bit more impact from that in the case of Luis Arraez, especially if the acquiring team is especially desperate (ahem, Philadelphia). But, yes, if you’re looking for volume, Robbie Ray is likely to bring back some quantity.
