The Atlanta Braves are looking to make a statement coming out of the All-Star break and their offense has been doing just that. The pitching has struggled a bit, so as they face the San Diego Padres this week it could go a long way in showing that the Braves are truly back or not after a terrible month and a half.
Of course, the trade deadline is coming up, but if the Braves have a solid rest of July, it could be incentive to go all in to improve the roster.
Today Bryce Elder will be taking the mound,
and hopefully the extra rest from the All-Star break has done him some good because as of late he has been struggling. Over his last four starts Elder has averaged just over four innings and has a 11.00 ERA while walking seven to only fifteen strikeouts. His FIP of 8.38 shows that it is not just bad luck that has inflated his ERA. It is hard to win games when your offense is in such a deep hole to catch up to. If there is one saving grace, hitters had a BABIP of .387 against him during that time which likely won’t hold over time.
Elder has not faced the Padres yet this season, but he has some of the players on the roster before. None of the players on the Padres have faced Elder more than five at-bats, but a few have seen success against him in limited action. Jake Cronenworth had a three-run HR in his three at-bats, while Xavier Bogaerts, Jackson Merrill, and Fernando Tatis Jr. have all had what could be argued success with an average .333 or higher in their very limited sample sizes.
If we look at the Padres’ offense outside of just the members who have faced Elder, they have been relatively hot in July. Only seven teams in MLB have scored more runs than them in that timeframe, and they are also top ten in wRC+ as well. So, Elder is already struggling as of late and is going to have his hands full with a top ten offense since the start of July.
The Braves will be facing JP Sears, who has been a below average pitcher in terms of ERA for his five-year career. This year has been no different with him sporting a 5.03 ERA that is worth an ERA+ seventeen percentage points below league average. To be fair, he has only made four starts this season, making his debut on the twenty-fourth of June. In fact, his season debut was against the Braves where he gave up two earned runs on five hits over 5.2 innings pitched. Interestingly, his best start of the season was against the Dodgers where he pitched 5.0 innings of one hit ball. In his four starts, he seems to have a solid start followed by a terrible start. His last start was one of the bad ones, so hopefully the Braves can stop the small trend and get him to have another poor start.
The Braves are on track to do so offensively. Since the start of July, no MLB team has scored more runs than the Braves, and they currently sit third in MLB in wRC+ in that timeframe. Again, this is since the start of July, not just the insanely good post All-Star break offense.
The offense will likely need to stay hot because outside of Elder’s recent struggles, the bullpen has taken a step back with an ERA of 4.79 in July, which is twentieth in MLB. Their Expected ERA (xERA) is much better at 3.67, but it still is nowhere close to where it was in the first few months of the season where they had the best ERA in MLB through all of June.
If the Braves can get more than just the bats clicking, they have a legitimate shot of turning things around. This series could be the series that is the start of the momentum they need to get back to being a team worthy of a target on their back as a real threat to have a deep playoff run.
First pitch is at 7:15 EDT.
Game Info
Game Time: Monday, July 20th, 7:15 pm EDT
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Watch: BravesVision, Gray TV
Radio/Audio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan
