Happy Monday, everyone. There won’t be much going on this week, with Eastern Illinois coming to town for the SEC’s traditional cupcake week before rivalries are played over Thanksgiving weekend. The Panthers
are 3-8 at the FCS level this season.
As you all know, Alabama lost to Oklahoma on Saturday in a frustrating game that in reality was much more important to the Sooners than the Tide. That’s not to say that Alabama wasn’t trying, they very much seemed to be. But the loss won’t mean much if Alabama bounces back to beat Auburn in two weeks.
Oklahoma coach Brent Venables was justifiably happy.
Oklahoma kept its College Football Playoff hopes alive and notched a second signature road win of the season. It was a resounding victory at previously fourth-ranked Alabama, and caused major changes in Sunday’s Week 13 Coaches Poll top 25. The Sooners pushed ahead two spots to No. 8, and have now entered the projected playoff field as one of four at-large hopefuls from the SEC. Alabama subsequently dropped to No 10.
Despite being doubled up in total yardage and recording its lowest output (212) in a win since 2021, Oklahoma beat a ranked conference opponent on the road for the second straight time after taking Tennessee out of the playoff picture.
“Who’s it not pretty for? What does that mean? Some people it’s pretty for. I happen to like it,” Oklahoma coach Brent Venables said after his team notched three takeaways and scored on defense. “But again, it’s a reflection, we see it in our league. I don’t know what all happened today throughout the league, but we’re playing really good people. They’re going to make plays, we’re going to make plays. We’re going to get got, they’re going to get got. Turnovers are going to be a part of it.”
Nick Kelly asks a sobering question for you.
Did Alabama peak in October? It’s starting to feel like it. Ever since the stretch where the Crimson Tide beat Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee over four straight weeks, Alabama seems to have lost some of that edge. The wins over South Carolina and LSU were good and needed, but those victories weren’t as impressive. And then this weekend, Alabama fell to Oklahoma. The train that was humming a month ago hasn’t gone off the tracks, but it has been slowing down. Alabama needs to cleanse the palate with Eastern Illinois and try to beat Auburn to springboard into the postseason.
Let’s hope not, Nick.
Michael Casagrande has a rundown of the absurdity that went down on Saturday.
This was a lower-scoring cousin of Alabama’s 2015 loss to Mississippi when five Tide turnovers painted the 43-37 final.
They had three Saturday.
Everyone one of them played a major role in skewing an outcome that, frankly, shouldn’t have even been close.
That’s before considering the botched punt coverage that led to Oklahoma taking its first snap at the Alabama 30.
Or the 36-yard field goal duffed to close the first half after a high snap threw off timing.
Those were the five.
Even the Black Hoodie of Death couldn’t save Alabama from that series of brain farts that soiled an otherwise delightful day.
Oklahoma’s average starting field position was its own 43 — an impactful 22 yards better than Alabama’s.
Only one of the Sooners’ scoring drives started on their side of the 50. Alabama’s gifts were all they needed.
Nicole Auerbach projects what the committee might do on Tuesday.
Now that Alabama has a second loss and will be compared to other two-loss teams, I’m curious to see how significant the impact of a bad loss to Florida State will be. It’s the worst loss of any legitimate CFP contender, and I wonder if the committee will take that into account when comparing Alabama (which has one of the best wins in the country, over Georgia) to a team like, say, Notre Dame — which has a less-impressive best win (USC) but better losses (to Texas A&M and Miami).
And remember, Oklahoma is a two-loss team, too. So, the Sooners will need to be ranked ahead of Alabama. We’ll have to see if the committee keeps the two of them as a package deal and ranks them one spot ahead of the other, or if there’s some separation as I suggest in my projection below. I projected it this way considering that the committee has already shown it likes Oregon despite its lack of a signature win and that it believes Notre Dame has improved from the start of the season (especially on the defensive side of the ball, coupled with an offense that gets rave reviews from the committee). But I wouldn’t be shocked to see Oklahoma and Alabama both behind Oregon and Notre Dame — or both SEC teams ahead of the pair.
This is where we see if the committee actually watches the games. Oklahoma also needed a long fumble return for a touchdown to beat Tennessee by one score in their last outing, in a game where they were outgained. This isn’t to take anything away from the Sooners as they made those plays and earned the victories. But, if the committee is choosing the best teams then it’s absolutely justifiable for Alabama to stay ahead of a team that they lost to despite a 95% postgame win expectancy. Long defensive touchdowns are random and simply cannot be counted on.
Here are a couple of projections for where Alabama might end up should they beat Auburn in two weeks.
The latest projection from CBS Sports’ Brad Crawford has the Crimson Tide hosting a home playoff game. Crawford matches Alabama up with Georgia Tech at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
The CBS prediction put Alabama as the No. 6 seed for the CFP, facing the No. 11 Yellow Jackets. The projection would have the winner of Alabama’s game playing Indiana in the Orange Bowl semifinal.
Another CBS Sports analyst’s prediction has Alabama on the road in the first round. Richard Johnson has UA in South Bend to face Notre Dame, with the Crimson Tide as the No. 9 seed and the Fighting Irish No. 8.
I would love to see the Tide host, but a game in South Bend would be pretty cool. And yes, for those who seem to believe that what we discuss on here makes a difference in the games, Alabama has to get through the pasture first.
That’s about it for today. Have a great week.
