The Braves are having fun. Mostly. Probably. They have a top five-ish record in the league both after the All-Star Break, and in July as a whole. No team has scored more runs in July, even though the Braves are just 15th in xwOBA for the month. They haven’t lost a series since the All-Star Break, including exorcising a very specific demon by beating the Padres in a series at home — something they hadn’t achieved since 2018. Now, fresh off a series win after a trio of close, wacky games in Baltimore,
they’re off to New York in search of more Ws.
And, as fate has inevitably contorted itself, I have coverage of another Martin Perez start. To be very clear: this was not my original assignment; I switched from tomorrow to today to help scheduling stuff. No, I did not check who was pitching for the Braves. But I think I already knew. Much like Perez’ style of pitching, we are all just marionettes on the erratically-rattled strings of the universe.
Anyway, Martin Perez! He’s had his ups and his downs. He was in the middle of a rough stretch when he was hit on the forearm by a comebacker, and had to miss some time on the Injured List. He came back last week and had a very strange outing against the Padres: four innings, four walks, three strikeouts, and a 1-0 lead when he departed. (The Braves eventually won, 7-6.) It was his fourth start in a row with very poor peripherals, but the defense and the vagaries of his own pitching style and the universe at large bailed him out from suffering any damage in the runs ledger.
On the season, Perez has a 79 ERA-, 107 FIP-, and 101 xFIP- in 85 2/3 innings, which… yeah. Sometimes not everything is undeservedly bad. Sometimes, things are undeservedly good. Hurrah.
As for the Mets, well, they’re kind of just depressing. At 44-62, they have MLB’s third-worst record. They’re 8-12 in July, and recently announced that nearly everyone on their roster is available in trade, though they haven’t actually started moving guys yet. It’s been a tough season in Queens for many reasons, though a big one is a huge offensive xwOBA underperformance that’s made a decent set of inputs translate into some of the league’s worst outputs. In addition, the Mets’ lack of defensive prowess has made their run prevention more of a problem than it’s needed to be.
On the flip side, 24-year-old Zac Thornton, tonight’s scheduled starter, has been a nice story so far in four starts. He wasn’t pitching all that well in the minors before being called up, and had a rough landing in his MLB debut, but then dominated the Phillies in his second try… though the Mets still lost that game, 2-1. He’s then had a couple of weirder outings — zero runs tallied to him (hi, Martin Perez!), but just a 7/3 K/BB ratio in 13 innings. He hasn’t allowed a homer since his debut, so that’s why his line is 47/71/99 (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-). The Mets could use some undeservedly good stuff, too, after how their season has gone.
As a pitcher, Thornton is definitely an odd duck. He’s a cutter-slider-thing-first lefty who generates good “rise” with his not-thrown-that-hard fastballs. He also throws a sweeper that’s much slower than his cutter thing. His command’s been kind of rough, but it’s an in-the-zone rough, so he’s not walking the world, and the ability to use his four-seamer and sweeper as a change-of-pace has helped him survive.
Ronald Acuña Jr. will apparently be back for this game, so that might be more exciting than everything else put together.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Monday, July 27, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Location: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
TV/Streaming: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan, La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM
