Today’s four No. 1 seeds, Arizona, UConn, Duke, and Michigan, have a combined record of 83-3 heading into the first week of February, with the Wolverines solidifying their place among the elite of the elite by
defeating both 2 seed Nebraska at Crisler and 3 seed Michigan State in East Lansing. The quartet of No. 2 seeds’ combined record stands at 81-8, with a three-loss Illinois team ahead of two-loss Nebraska, one-loss Gonzaga, and two-loss Iowa State.
Two Big Ten teams, the aforementioned Spartans and Purdue, are joined by Houston and Florida on seed line 3, with Kansas, Vanderbilt, Texas Tech, and Virginia occupying the 4 line today.
There’s still a whole lot of bunching going on among the power conferences, with six Big 12 teams (adding in fifth-seeded BYU) ranked among the top 20, the SEC dominating the middle of the bracket, as eight teams are seeded between lines 4 and 9, and the ACC in a similar boat with fewer teams, as six conference members find themselves in that same group.
But the Big Ten features the most curious instances of grouping. Of the conference’s 11 entrants, the top five are all ranked among the top 12 overall and could already be considered locks; however, the remaining six are all looking super bubbly. Iowa is the sixth-highest-ranked Big Ten team, as a 9 seed. Wisconsin is right behind the Hawkeyes on seed line 10. Then, there are a pair of league members in both the Last Four Byes (USC and UCLA) and Last Four In (Indiana and Ohio State) groups.
There are even some odd-looking clusters immediately outside of the field. The first two teams out, Miami and Cal, are from the ACC. Then, add Santa Clara and San Diego State to a group that already includes the Trojans, Bruins, and Golden Bears, and you have a very California-centric Cut Line picture at the start of moving month.
After today’s full bracket and rundown, I’ll quickly preview what’s an unusually quiet first midweek window of February.
NOTE: Changes since Friday’s projection are noted with (★) for new entrants, (▲) for teams moving up one or more seed lines, and (▼) for teams moving down one or more seed lines.
(1) West (San José, Thurs./Sat.)
San Diego (Fri./Sun.)
(1) Arizona (Big 12)
(16) LIU (NEC)
(8) Saint Mary’s
(9) Utah State (MW)
San Diego (Fri./Sun.)
(5) Alabama
▲(12) Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
(4) Texas Tech
▲(13) Winthrop (Big South)
Tampa (Fri./Sun.)
▲(6) Louisville
(11) Miami (Ohio) (MAC)
▲(3) Florida
(14) ETSU (SoCon)
St. Louis (Fri./Sun.)
(7) UCF
(10) UCLA
(2) Nebraska
(15) Austin Peay (ASUN)
(4) South (Houston, Thurs./Sat.)
Buffalo (Thurs./Sat.)
(1) Michigan (Big Ten)
▼(16) Navy (Patriot)
(8) Villanova
▼(9) Georgia
Greenville (Thurs./Sat.)
▼(5) BYU
(12) Belmont (MVC)
(4) Vanderbilt
(13) UNCW (CAA)
Oklahoma City (Thurs./Sat.)
▼(6) Arkansas
(11) Virginia Tech
(3) Houston
(14) North Dakota State (Summit)
Portland (Thurs./Sat.)
▲(7) Texas A&M (SEC)
▲(10) USC
(2) Gonzaga (WCC)
★(15) Harvard (Ivy)
(2) East (Washington, D.C., Fri./Sun.)
Philadelphia (Fri./Sun.)
(1) UConn (Big East)
★/★(16) UMBC (AE)/North Carolina Central (MEAC)
▼(8) Clemson
(9) Iowa
Portland (Thurs./Sat.)
(5) Tennessee
★(12) Tulsa (AC)
▲(4) Virginia
★(13) Utah Valley (WAC)
Buffalo (Thurs./Sat.)
(6) North Carolina
★/— (11) Texas/Indiana
▼(3) Michigan State
▲(14) Portland State (Big Sky)
Oklahoma City (Thurs./Sat.)
(7) Auburn
(10) Wisconsin
▲(2) Iowa State
▲(15) UT Martin (OVC)
(3) Midwest (Chicago, Fri./Sun.)
Greenville (Thurs./Sat.)
(1) Duke (ACC)
(16) Merrimack (MAAC)/Bethune-Cookman (SWAC)
▲(8) Kentucky
(9) NC State
Tampa (Fri./Sun.)
▲(5) Saint Louis (A 10)
(12) Liberty (CUSA)
(4) Kansas
(13) UC Irvine (Big West)
Philadelphia (Fri./Sun.)
(6) St. John’s
(11) TCU/Ohio State
(3) Purdue
▲(14) Wright State (Horizon)
St. Louis (Fri./Sun.)
▼(7) SMU
(10) New Mexico
(2) Illinois
(15) Troy (Sun Belt)
Rundown
Last Four Byes: USC, New Mexico, UCLA, Virginia Tech
Last Four IN: Texas, Indiana, TCU, Ohio State
First Four OUT: Miami (Fla.), California, San Diego State, Santa Clara
Next Four Out: Baylor, Seton Hall, VCU, Washington
ARRIVALS (6): Harvard (Ivy), North Carolina Central (MEAC) Texas, Tulsa (AC), UMBC (AE), Utah Valley (WAC)
DEPARTURES: Maryland-Eastern Shore (MEAC), San Diego State (MW), South Florida (AC), UT Arlington (WAC), Vermont (AE), Yale (Ivy)
Conference Breakdown
Big Ten (11): Michigan (auto bid), Illinois, Nebraska, Michigan State, Purdue, Iowa, Wisconsin, USC, UCLA, Indiana (First Four), Ohio State (First Four)
SEC (10): Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Texas A&M (auto bid), Kentucky, Georgia, Texas (First Four)
ACC (8): Duke (auto bid), Virginia, North Carolina, Louisville, SMU, Clemson, NC State, Virginia Tech
Big 12 (8): Arizona (auto bid), Iowa State, Houston, Kansas, Texas Tech, BYU, UCF, TCU (First Four)
Big East (3): UConn (auto bid), St. John’s, Villanova
MW (2): Utah State (auto bid), New Mexico
WCC (2): Gonzaga (auto bid), Saint Mary’s
24 one-bid conferences
Games to Watch
All times are p.m. Eastern unless noted. Games are listed in rough order of bracket importance.
Tuesday
Mississippi at Tennessee, 7 (ESPN2)
South Carolina at Texas, 7 (SECN)
Boston College at Duke, 7 (ACCN)
Xavier at UConn, 7 (Peacock ($)/NBCSN)
Miami (Ohio) at Buffalo, 6:30 (ESPN+ ($))
Akron at Eastern Michigan, 6:30 (ESPN+ ($))
VCU at Fordham, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
St. John’s at DePaul, 8 (Peacock ($))
UIC at Murray State, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
Little Rock at UT Martin, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
NC State at SMU, 9 (ESPN2)
Pitt at Virginia, 9 (ACCN)
Saint Louis at Davidson, 9 (CBSSN)
Drake at Belmont, 9 (MVC TV/ESPN+ ($))
Nevada at Boise State, 9 (MWN)
Air Force at Grand Canyon, 9 (MWN)
Indiana at USC, 10 (Peacock ($)/NBCSN)
Rutgers at UCLA, 9:30 (BTN)
Wyoming at San Diego State, 11 (CBSSN)
The two biggest games from an at-large perspective tonight are Indiana’s attempt to sweep its L.A. road trip and NC State’s visit to SMU. Otherwise, the highlights come from likely one-bid conferences. Undefeated Miami will look to extend its winning streak to 23 by sweeping a Buffalo team that took them to overtime in Oxford. One-loss Saint Louis faces a tricky road game at Davidson, who sits four games behind the Billikens in the Atlantic 10 standings. In the Valley, Belmont now leads the conference by a full two games with three-time defending Arch Madness champ Drake visiting Curb tonight. Meanwhile, two of the MVC’s three 8-4 teams, UIC and Murray State, meet in Kentucky.
Wednesday
Texas A&M at Alabama, 7 (SECN)
UCF at Houston, 7 (FS1)
Seton Hall at Villanova, 6:30 (Peacock ($)/NBCSN)
Michigan State at Minnesota, 7 (BTN)
Notre Dame at Louisville, 7 (ESPN2)
Creighton at Georgetown, 7:30 (Peacock ($))
Butler at Providence, 7 (Peacock ($))
Duquesne at George Mason, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Tulsa at Florida Atlantic, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
UTSA at South Florida, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Charlotte at Wichita State, 7:30 (ESPN+ ($))
Liberty at Delaware, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Furman at ETSU, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Troy at Georgia State, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Wright State at Robert Morris, 7 (ESPNU/ESPN+ ($))
Navy at Lafayette, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Colorado at Baylor, 8 (Peacock ($))
Georgia Tech at California, 8 (ACCN)
Lipscomb at Austin Peay, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
Maryland-Eastern Shore at South Carolina State, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
Oklahoma at Kentucky, 9 (ESPN2)
BYU at Oklahoma State, 9 (FS1)
Northwestern at Illinois, 9 (BTN)
Utah State at New Mexico, 11 (FS1)
Clemson at Stanford, 10 (ACCN)
Iowa at Washington, 11 (BTN)
Gonzaga at Portland, 10 (KUNP/KHQ/ESPN+ ($))
Santa Clara at Pacific, 10 (ESPN+ ($))
San Diego at Saint Mary’s, 10 (ESPN+ ($))
Things pick up a bit on Wednesday, with the night’s biggest game set for Tuscaloosa. The host Crimson Tide, fresh off a 100-77 loss to Florida, will look to knock visiting Texas A&M into a tie for first with the Gators, who the Aggies happen to play on Saturday at Reed Arena. The bubble picture could become even more muddled, thanks to Seton Hall-Nova, BYU-Oklahoma State, Clemson-Stanford, and Iowa-Washington. Otherwise, there are lots of potential trap games for teams like Michigan State, Louisville, Cal, and Kentucky. There are also three American Conference contests that could shake up that race. Co-leaders Tulsa and Charlotte both hit the road to visit teams sitting two games back in the loss column, while South Florida, a game behind, hosts a UTSA team that’s 0-9 in AC play.
Thursday
Penn State at Michigan, 6:30 (FS1)
West Virginia at Cincinnati, 7 (ESPN2)
William & Mary at UNCW, 7 (CBSSN)
Vermont at Maine, 6 (NESN/ESPN+ ($))
Binghamton at UMBC, 6 (ESPN+ ($))
UMass Lowell at NJIT, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
New Haven at LIU, 7 (NEC Front Row)
Ohio State at Maryland, 8:30 (FS1)
Abilene Christian at Utah Valley, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
Denver at North Dakota State, 8 (Summit League Network)
Southern Indiana at UT Martin, 8:30 (ESPN+ ($))
Cal State Bakersfield at UC Irvine, 10 (ESPN+ ($))
UT Arlington at Utah Tech, 9 (ESPN+ ($))
Tarleton at Cal Baptist, 10 (ESPN+ ($))
The only thing that could cost Michigan a spot on the top seed line in Friday’s projection would be an unlikely home loss to Penn State. Otherwise, there are only two other scheduled games with at-large impact. West Virginia heads to Cincinnati with both teams well down the bubble pecking order, while the back half of the FS1 doubleheader sees the last team in, Ohio State, visiting a bad Maryland team. Elsewhere, there are some crucial matchups in several likely one-bid leagues, with the intriguing America East and WAC races taking center stage.
