Thanks to the nflFastR project, Pro Football Focus for the timely sources of data.
For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts’ QB performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
The Colts offense didn’t
so much have a problem moving the ball downfield as they did simply holding onto to it. A 72.7% Drive Success rate can win you games but not if you give the opponent the ball 3 times.
Daniel Jones was responsible for two of those turnovers, and his anemic second-half passing performance pretty much sealed the Colts’ fate. Let’s read the story from the numbers.
HOW WELL?
mouseover definitions: arsr, edp, sg%, oz%, pr%, tip, ttt, adot, ay/c, yac, yacoe, yd/c, ac%, cpoe, aypa, drp, scr%, ta%, sck%, aa%, ny/d, ny/p, 1st%, td%, to%, qbsr, epa/p, adj/p
- Indianapolis got solid production from its running game while using a fairly balanced approach on early downs. (11th ARSR; 12th EDP)
- Jones faced a fair amount of pressure but generally took longer than average to get rid of the ball, which means he invited a lot of the pressure himself. (13th PR%; 10th TIP; 6th TTT)
- Jones attacked downfield aggressively, throwing deeper than almost anyone in the league. However, he had trouble connecting and so his completions came at a much more ordinary depth. Fortunately, the receivers provided strong production after the catch helping generate good overall yardage per completion. (2nd ADOT; 16th AY/C; 7th YAC; 8th YCOE; 10th YD/C)
- The big problem was that Jones struggled to complete passes consistently, finishing near the bottom of the league in adjusted completion rate. That offset the completion yardage, leaving his passing production per attempt below average. (29th AC%; 22nd CPOE; 17th AYPA)
- Drops were a big factor, but the biggest problem was sacks. He was sacked six times, taking away a significant amount of potential passing production. (8th DRP; 5th SCK%)
- Add in throw-aways and scrambles and in total, he abandoned a lot of passes. Those lost plays dragged down the passing game’s overall yardage production, leaving Jones well below average in net yards per dropback. (24th TA%, 11th SCR%, 8th AA%, 21st NY/D)
- With poor yardage, Jones couldn’t generate first downs and he managed only one touchdown. (19th 1ST%; 23rd TD%)
- Turnovers were particularly damaging. Jones threw two interceptions, both costly negative plays, giving him one of the highest turnover rates of the week. (4th TO%)
- He was below average at generating successful plays and the combination of sacks and two interceptions didn’t dropped his overall efficiency even further. (18th QBSR; 20th EPA/P)
Jones had decent yardage efficiency on a per-completion basis, largely thanks to strong production after the catch. However, just like last week, his poor completion rate brought his overall yardage efficiency back below average. From there, his efficiency was mostly impacted by sacks and turnovers, both of which caused significant declines.
Jones started the game fairly well, generating several positive plays before an interception wiped out much of that early production. He rebounded with some productive passing in the second quarter, including a touchdown, but his performance became increasingly inconsistent as sacks and incompletions piled up. Overall, the costly negative plays outweighed his positive production, leaving him at -0.09 EPA per play.
Jones was below average in all top 4 measures. He has been trending downward, with his performance becoming increasingly inconsistent. After a strong Week 2, his overall efficiency and yardage production have fallen considerably, while his success rate and first-down production have also slipped below average. Despite a modest rebound in Week 5, all four measures remain below league average, suggesting a broader decline rather than just one bad game.
HOW FAR?
Jones started with some productive completions, but his passing became increasingly inconsistent, with two interceptions and frequent incompletions interrupting his rhythm. He had another productive stretch in the fourth quarter, but finished the game going 1 for 8. His throws were generally aggressive downfield, averaging 11.5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, but he completed just 53.7% of his passes (adjusted).
Again this week, passing was particularly aggressive, averaging 11.5 air yards per attempt. However, his completed passes came at a much more ordinary depth, continuing the gap between where he targets receivers and where he actually completes passes.
Jones has generated below-average yardage per attempt this season, ranking 26th in the league oof of the 7th shortest attempts.
TO WHO?
Keenan Allen led the Colts in receiving yards and air yards, catching 8 of 11 targets. Jonathan Taylor was the other major contributor to receiving yardage, with most of his production coming after the catch on just two receptions.
Josh Downs leads the Colts in receiving yards, followed by Keenan Allen. Tyler Warren is a close 3rd with Jonathan Taylor beating out Treadwell for the 4th spot.
Keenan Allen was Jones’s most productive regular target, generating positive EPA on relatively deep throws, while Josh Downs was only below average target value. Treadwell and Mallory had the deepest targets but were significantly below average value.
Josh Downs and Alec Pierce have been Jones’s most efficient downfield targets this season, both generating well-above-average EPA per target. Tyler Warren has also provided solid value on shorter throws, while Jonathan Taylor has been roughly average. Keenan Allen has been a disappointment relative to his target depth, generating very little positive EPA, while Laquon Treadwell is also on the team.
HOW ACCURATE?
Jones’s completion rate has fallen sharply over the past two weeks, dropping well below league average along with his CPOE, which means his incompletions aren’t just because they are long throws. On the season, he has struggled at nearly every depth, other than screen passes.
HOW FAST?
Jones took considerably longer to throw this week, reversing the quicker passing rhythm he had established over the previous several games. However, his season-long time to throw is still below average for his target depth.
TO WHERE?
Within 10 yards, he did well. However, passes over the middle and deeper shots were a dumpster fire.
Jones has struggled throwing the ball downfield throughout the season, with below-average efficiency at just about every depth and across all areas of the field.
