Game notes
- Time and date: Thursday, August 28 at 7:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN+
- Location: Acrisure Bounce House — Orlando, FL
- Spread: UCF (-18)
- Over/under: 52.5
- All-time series: No previous matchups
Setting the scene
“First Bounce” is a highly-anticipated tradition in Orlando. Experiencing it in person is surreal. The second Zombie Nation’s “Kernkraft 400” is blasted over the stadium speakers, UCF faithful jumps up and down in unison. The tunnels oscillate while the locker room doors shake like somebody’s about to charge through.
It’s an annual Labor Day weeknight tradition as UCF opens at home on a Thursday for the seventh consecutive year if you exclude the pandemic-affected 2020 season, and the Knights won
all seven. But this season opener arrives with extra flare as it’s a homecoming for a beloved coach. Last time Scott Frost wore UCF gear on the sidelines, his Knights completed a perfect 13-0 campaign in 2017, winning the Peach Bowl over Auburn and a share of an NCAA-recognized national championship. He returns, hoping to complete a similar turnaround for a program fresh off two-straight losing seasons.
The visiting sideline debuts a new coach as well. After Rich Rodriguez took Jacksonville State to back-to-back 9-win seasons and a Conference USA title to launch the program’s FBS tenure, he departed for West Virginia, leaving Charles Kelly in charge of sustaining that success. Only one first-year coach starts 1-0 in a Bounce House matchup between a considerable favorite and underdog.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks outlook
Jacksonville State’s immediate FBS success is quite an outlier. The Gamecocks are 18-9 since elevating from the FCS level to the CUSA, on a speedrun of accomplishments. They won a bowl game in 2023 and a conference championship in 2024. However, Jacksonville State must now prove its prosperity’s lifespan extends beyond Rich Rodriguez. Charles Kelly, who served as an assistant at Jax State from 1994-98, takes over after serving the prior season as Auburn’s defensive coordinator.
Kelly’s inaugural roster is quite unrecognizable from the 2024 CUSA champions squad, as over 50 new players flock into the program. But the greatest seismic shift will be the offensive scheme, as the Gamecocks shift from Rodriguez’s spread offense based on heavy zone read utilization to new offensive coordinator Clint Trickett’s scheme, which should retain some zone read concepts but overall be more multiple.
Leading the unit is fifth-year senior Gavin Wimsatt, who started 19 games at Rutgers and led the Scarlet Knights to a 2023 Pinstripe Bowl victory. Wimsatt must replace reigning CUSA MVP Tyler Huff, who exceeded 2,500 passing yards and 1,300 rushing yards, and the former Rutgers starter hopes to present similar dual-threat abilities. In his full season as a starter in 2023, he logged 1,735 yards and nine touchdowns through the air, and 497 and 11 on the ground. However, accuracy and efficiency are skills he must improve in his new home with a career completion rate of 46.2% and 17 passing touchdowns to 21 interceptions.
Another massive replacement for Jax State is Tre Stewart, who finished fifth nationally in rushing yards and third in touchdowns. But once again, the Gamecocks found an established starter to take the reins from a program great. Cam Cook steps into Stewart’s vacancy after leading TCU with 460 rushing yards and nine touchdowns in 2024. Returning backup Andrew Paul should join the mix after 167 yards and four scores last year, giving Jax State the personnel for a high-powered running attack despite the coaching change.
Elsewhere on the offense, sixth-year Gamecock Michael Pettaway is a name to watch in the receiving game. The longtime program staple ranked second on the unit with 454 receiving yards last year. Jax State didn’t throw too many screens under Rodriguez. Typical passes were out of RPO sets and typically stretched the field vertically. Some of those elements may stick in Trickett’s offense, especially Thursday as the Gamecocks look to make home run plays to pull off the upset.
Other names to watch offensively include Trickett’s transfers from his stint as Marshall’s offensive coordinator. Wide receiver Caleb Coombs and offensive tackle Jeremiah Orr are day one starters following their former coordinator from Huntington to Jacksonville.
The 2024 Gamecocks started quite lethargic on defense, allowing 55 to Coastal Carolina, 49 to Louisville, and 37 to Eastern Michigan during an 0-3 start but the unit eventually solved its woes, holding WKU’s high-powered offense under 20 points twice in consecutive weeks late in the year. However, many defensive stats can be tossed aside considering Jax State loses its top seven tacklers and introduces a new coordinator in Brian Williams.
The strength of the defense is the 3-man front which should feature Jawuan Campbell (11 starts), Talan Carter (7 starts), and Darrell Prater (4 starts) — the best continuity of any position group. Campbell led the trio with 47 tackles and eight tackles for loss while Carter and Prater produced 26 stops apiece as part-time starters.
Conversely, the most revamped unit is the secondary which loses two 100+ tackle safeties in Fred Perry and Antonio Carter II. Trevor Woods (Colorado), Rod Elston (Auburn), Tyrin Taylor (Memphis), and Jaheim Jenkins (Eastern Michigan) are all newcomers listed as starters or co-starters on the initial depth chart, as is Tre’Quon Fegans — a UCF transfer returning to the Bounce House after recording two tackles in seven games with the Knights.
Jax State’s defense forced 24 takeaways in 2024 and 25 in 2023, averaging roughly two per game in consecutive seasons. That remains a brand of the defense and serves as a potential gateway to victory in Orlando.
UCF Knights outlook
Usually one waits until late fall or early wintertime before the Frost returns to the ground, but that highly-anticipated phenomenon will transpire Thursday night in Orlando.
Scott Frost turned UCF into a power during his first stint, only requiring two seasons to take a program from 0-12 to 13-0 and a No. 6 AP Poll finish. Seven full seasons have passed since Frost represented the Knights, and the coach is hoping to recapture the magic during his return. However, it is a much different UCF than the one Frost inherited nine years ago. The Knights are coming off 4-8 instead of 0-12. They’re in the Big 12 instead of the American. And roster rebuilding methods have drastically changed given the introduction of NIL and revenue sharing and the rise of the transfer portal.
Frost’s second stint features 63 new arrivals including 36 Division I transfers. The position UCF needs to nail most its new arrivals is quarterback. Quarterback was certainly a struggle for the Knights in 2024 with a revolving door that featured four different starters who produced the nation’s 97th-ranked passing attack, completing 58.2% of attempts with 14 touchdowns to 11 interceptions.
Cam Fancher is a projected starter, arriving with a team-high 26 starts at the position dating back to 2022 (17 Marshall, 9 at Florida Atlantic). Fancher’s best season transpired in the Thundering Herd when he fired for 2,162 yards with a 65.4% completion rate. However, limiting mistakes is key for the fourth-year junior in his new home given his ratio of 27 touchdowns to 23 interceptions in his career. Fancher has shown to exhibit a degree of mobility with 1,122 career rushing yards, totaling 365 at FAU in 2024.
Other quarterbacks that could see playing time are Indiana transfer Tayven Jackson (6 starts at Indiana) and incumbent Jacurri Brown (3 starts at Miami (FL), 2 starts at UCF). Both multi-game starters share a similar history, presenting viable mobility while hoping to improve in the efficiency department moving forward. They’ll receive coaching from a legendary Knights dual-threat star McKenzie Milton who reunites with Coach Frost as quarterbacks coach.
UCF’s 4-8 record overshadowed how dominant the run game was in 2024. The Knights ranked top five in rushing yards per game and yards per carry, fueled by day two NFL Draft selection RJ Harvey. Harvey didn’t suffer a single bad outing last year and generated 115+ yards in nine of 12 appearances, including 180+ on three occasions. That production isn’t easily replaceable, but the Knights trot out a running back duo of Myles Montgomery and Jaden Nixon to fill the massive vacancy. Montgomery racked up 293 yards on 5.7 yards per carry in his first year as a Knight while Nixon was a First Team All-MAC selection at Western Michigan for a stellar 919-yard, 12-touchdown season. Blocking for the duo will be a refurbished offensive line that still receives the services of the commanding 6’10”, 330 pound Paul Rubelt who acts as the sole returning offensive starter.
The Knights’ receiving production may be almost exclusively transfer-driven. Not a single wide receiver who corralled a reception returns for 2025. Duane Thomas Jr. (Charlotte), Marcus Burke (Florida), and DayDay Farmer (West Virginia) are among the FBS transfers looking to bolster their production, while small school arrivals DJ Black and Chris Domercant look to make noise in an overhauled unit.
The offense was generally a positive under Gus Malzahn, but defense was the group preventing the Knights from sustaining their streak of winning seasons. In 2023, run defense was in the Achilles heel. However, that facet progressed exponentially in 2023, but the passing defense took a step back as UCF fielded the nation’s 82nd-ranked scoring defense. But the Knights must seriously amplify their takeaway numbers in 2025, as the team recovered just two fumbles and picked off nine passes a year ago — ranking bottom 15 in the FBS in forced turnovers.
Three defenders that started at least half of 2024 are back for the Knights — edge rushers Malachi Lawrence and Nyjalik Kelly and nickel Braeden Marshall. Lawrence and Kelly will be instrumental in elevating UCF’s pass rush as the only two Knights to land at least five sacks last year. Kelly should remain one of the Knights’ most impactful defenders after tallying 10 tackles for loss and three forced fumbles in 2024. Assisting his backfield invasions is defensive tackle John Walker, a 2023 true freshman standout who triumphantly returns after missing the entirety of last season with injury.
Strong safety Demari Henderson is another UCF defender who experienced a similar setback as Walker and missed all of 2024. Henderson’s return should ignite the Knights’ takeaway numbers considering he totaled three interceptions, three fumble recoveries, and two forced fumbles as a 7-game starter in 2023.
Prediction
UCF does not lose Thursday night openers. The Knights have largely dominated their “First Bounce” night, winning the last seven Week 1 Thursday matchups by an average score of 55-12, reaching 56+ points in six of those matchups. Where does Jacksonville State rank among these opponents? Probably second behind 2021 Boise State, meaning the Knights are in for a greater challenge than usual.
Both teams are led by new head coaches and highly comprised of newcomers, so there should be plenty of personnel adjustments made throughout the contest as Frost and Kelly need to see what works in an in-game setting. Both teams’ offenses should be heavily fueled by the ground with Myles Montgomery and Jaden Nixon doing the work for the Knights, while Cam Cook and Andrew Paul produce for the Gamecocks.
Jax State will see moderate offensive success, but the Knights will make several more end zone trips as they start 1-0 for the 10th-consecutive season. Scott Frost improves to 14-0 in his last 14 outings with UCF.
Prediction: UCF 35, Jacksonville State 21
