The Day After the Day After…when the raw, immediate emotions from the aftermath of a game diminish into the realm of clarity and the proverbial (or literal) hangover no longer haunts the mind. With that, a review of Week 2:
The script for the “Most Interesting Defense in the World” flips: In the 2+ years under the most interesting defensive coordinator in the world Matt Burke, the Texans’ defense found itself needing to hold off the opponent in the final seconds. In 2023, the defense held off the Saints,
Cardinals, Broncos, Colts when those teams needed touchdowns to tie or win. Last season, it held off final charges from the Colts and Dolphins to secure such victories. Historically, Houston would surrender enough yards for the FG (see ATL and CAR in 2023, GB and DET in 2024). However, the 2025 defense failed to keep the Bucs out of the endzone. Was the defense likely tired from being on the field for almost 37 minutes prior to that final drive? Sure. One could argue after so many successful holds to prevent a team from score a game winning/tying TD, the team was due for some regression. Still, if Houston wants to get where it wants to go, the defense has to lead the way, and it must close out games like this.
The Two 4th Downs that decided the game: In a game like this, it can come down to but a couple of plays. Here, two 4th down plays decided the fate of the contest. One was a fourth down conversion not made, the other one was.
- HOU: 4th and Goal from the Tampa Bay 1 (4th Qtr, 11:19). Houston comes out in shotgun. This is the 3rd consecutive play starting from the TB 1 yard line. A Nick Chubb run for no gain and a Stroud incompletion to Collins got Houston to his point. Given that Houston trailed early in the 4th by 4 and was at the TB 1, few could argue against the call to go for it here. Stroud takes the snap and rolls to his left, along with most of his eligible receivers. He targets Collins, but throws high and to the right of Collins, who is under good coverage.
- TB: 4th and 10 from the TB 32 (4th Qtr, 1:24). While the Bucs still had its full complement of timeouts, this play likely meant ball game. Mayfield took the shotgun snap, desperate to find some open receiver to keep the drive alive. Houston’s front four got some good push all along the O-line. LB To’oTo’o then came on a delayed blitz along the right side of the Bucs’ line. However, he did not take the greatest angle and Mayfield was able to side-step his rush enough to only get a weak-arm outreach from the LB. From there, Mayfield saw the middle of the field wide open, as any Texans defender not rushing was in deeper coverage. He gets 15 yards before S Gardner-Johnson takes him down.
A big momentum swing on both 4th downs. The goal-line stand was somewhat mitigated by Houston with the follow-on punt block, but they only managed a FG. That left the score 13-14, which played a major factor later in the game, when Houston had to go for 2 when Chubb scored near the 2-min warning. A 5 point-lead still means a team needs a TD to win. However, if Houston gets that TD earlier in the 4th, the score is then 17-14. The strategic direction of the game completely changes then. Even if Houston doesn’t get the punt block and doesn’t get the FG, a lead is a lead. Also, if Houston still scores that final TD later in the 4th quarter, then the game is effectively over at 24-14. As for Tampa Bay, that scramble put the wind in their sails, and the Bucs marched down the field on a tired and slightly demoralized defense.
Special Teams almost won it for Houston. On a night when the vaunted defense couldn’t check the punishing Tampa Bay ground attack and where the offense was still held back by low-caliber line play and inconsistency, special teams needed to come through. In the second half, they definitely did. In the 4th quarter, after a potentially game-altering goal-line stand (see previous section), Houston needed something to flip back its way. The Bucs moved the ball to near midfield, seemingly moving a struggling Texans offense out of any chance to score. Then Jakob Johnson blocks the punt. The ball ended up back at the TB 35, leading to a Houston FG. Then, later in the 4th, Jaylin Noel provided a 53-yard punt return that set up the Texans for the go-ahead TD. Overall, special teams played a better quality game here than in LA. Most of the coverage on the game laments the Bucs’ poor special teams (they struggled in Atlanta), but let us not completely discount the Texans’ role in making the Bucs special teams look bad.
Going into the early bye with a losing record seems almost a certainty now. Having an extremely early bye is a strange season marker. However, based on the makeup of the schedule, the idea of going into that bye in Week 6 with a losing record didn’t seem all that far-fetched. With a trip to Baltimore slated for Week 5, Houston seemingly will enter the Week 6 bye, best case, at 2-3. Plenty of season to go, and the offense line can settle in, players like Mixon can come back from injury, and the back part of the schedule sets up nicely for Houston. Yet, it is also not hard to think that the games at Jacksonville and against Tennessee at NRG are must-wins. 2-3 is one thing. 1-4 or 0-5…well, then we are having a completely different discussion.
FUN WITH NUMBERS:
3: Times that Houston started 0-2 and still managed to make the playoffs. Only 11.5% of teams since 1990 have done so. Houston’s done it three times. 2015, 2018 and 2023 started 0-2 and the Texans ended as AFC South Champions (9-7, 11-5, 10-7 respectively). Not ideal, but not impossible either.
22.2%: Houston’s 3rd Down conversion percentage this season. Only two game, but teams do not find much success at that clip. This is dead-last in the league by a considerable margin.
GAME BALLS
WR/KR Jaylin Noel: His 53-yard punt return was his main highlight, part of his 67 total punt return yards on three returns (22.3 yards/return) and 78 yards on three kick returns (26.0yds/return). He was not targeted as a receiver in 15 snaps, but he stood out as a special teams weapon.
DE Danielle Hunter: Hunter’s line for night: 5 tackles (3 solo), 2 TFLs/2 Sacks and a FF. He also went over 100 sacks for his career. Anderson also added a sack to his season total.
SHOULD BE FORCED TO LISTEN TO JOE BUCK NARRATE EVERY SINGLE EVENT FROM MONDAY NIGHT ON REPEAT WHILE CLEANING OUT TORO’S STABLE WITH ONLY A TOOTHBRUSH
Goal Line Play Calling/Execution: Houston got the ball to the TB 1-yard line early in the 4th quarter and executed one Chubb run up the middle and two mis-fired passes to Collins. Last week, Houston actually used the tush push on a 4th and 2 to convert inside Rams territory last week? Would that not be a consideration here to get only one yard? You don’t want Stroud taking too many shots, but you’ve shown it can be done, even if Vea is a far superior nose tackle to his Rams’ counterpart. And no play-action of any sort on either pass play? Good play-calling depends on execution (Stroud takes his blame here), but poor creativity from Caley here.
Run Defense: Tampa Bay’s two main backs combined for over 136 yards rushing. Throw in Mayfield’s 33 yards and the Texans’ run D had a game to forget. Big reason why the Bucs won time of possession and the Texans’ D struggled on the last drive. Last week, Houston only surrendered 71 total yards on the ground.
Houston has a short-turn to prep for its visit to Jacksonville and the 1-1 Jaguars. This will be a game where both teams will want to put aside last-second losses. Also, there might…MIGHT, be some other sub-plots of note from the last time these two dueled. Kickoff is this Sunday at noon CDT on CBS/Paramount+. See y’all there.
