Carolina is in an interesting situation this week thanks to the results over the past weekend. A few weeks ago even sniffing the chance at having a top four seed and finishing with the double bye seemed impossible, and now if Carolina were to beat Clemson Tuesday night it may not be locked but it’ll be very likely.
That said, all of sudden it’s worth asking if getting the four seed—the most likely result for Carolina thanks to Virginia’s strong play and UNC’s loss to Miami—is the best path for Carolina?
So let’s start with the fact that this idea isn’t out of the blue. Prior to this weekend’s results, Jones Angell and Adam Lucas discussed the idea of the “appropriate” ACC Tournament seed on the February 27th Carolina Insider Podcast. Granted, this was when looking ahead at the games remaining you were looking at a strong likelihood of missing out on the double bye, but it was a discussion worth having mostly because of two factors:
- The four/five seed puts you on Duke’s side of the bracket with a matchup in the semifinals
- Getting a five seed or lower gives you another game to reintegrate Caleb Wilson into the lineup against a team that finished in the bottom part of the league.
It’s an interesting discussion if only because you look at who Carolina has left, you realize that without Wilson the game against Clemson is not going to be easy. They are coming off a win against Louisville, looking for the double bye themselves to try and strengthen their own NCAA resume, and without Wilson in a lot of ways you’ve already succeeded more than many thought you would.
The other game of course is Duke in Durham, and if anything they are stronger since their narrow loss to the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill. The way that game ended plus having them in Cameron, not to mention if Wilson plays it’ll be his first game back in a month and there will be some rust, means the Tar Heels are going in as a bigger underdog than the Chapel Hill contest. Going 0-2 this week is not off the table.
So let’s attack each part. First, it’s not so much that you want to avoid Duke as much as you want a chance to stack as many wins in the ACC Tournament as possible. A path that puts you as a three or six seed means that you’re looking at playing two games that will be around the Quad 1 area before reaching the ACC Championship. It oddly could also improve your metrics like Wins Above Bubble just because you’ll have played more games. That also means should Duke make it there, they’ll have also played one more game—and who knows what sort of games they’ll have played that could wear them down and give you a better chance?
Sitting with a four or five seed means Duke will be there in the quarterfinals, only playing once against a team they’ll likely dominate and be able to rest their players. UNC would have to put out all of the stops to try and get a win, and should they do so how worn out would they be for an ACC Championship against a squad they’ve played before?
The other part of this is Wilson. Based on Hubert Davis’ comments it sounds like he won’t play Tuesday so the earliest we will see him is Saturday. With a fourth seed, Carolina gets the double bye meaning you get all of two games total with him before you see Duke for a third time. With the fifth seed you’re still on Duke’s side but you’ll get a first game on Wednesday, meaning another game to get him used to being back on the floor and how to play with his injury.
The problem with this, of course, is that you’re hoping for Carolina to lose, and considering how up and down this season has been overcoming the adversity and finishing the season strong could be the most important part, regardless of the seed they end up with. There’s also the big picture of the NCAA Tournament to consider that while having Wilson with more games will help the actually play, losses would stunt their seed and they are pretty close to getting into top 16 discussion right now as it is. The better the seed the closer to home you’ll play in the first and second rounds.
It’s just nice again to be able to have this discussion. In the end if the Tar Heels go 2-0 this week but still end up with the fourth seed, I don’t think too many of us will complain. But if they go 1-1 or even 0-2, could the way the seeds stack up be a silver lining?
Could they end up with the third seed? Also still possible but they’ll need to go 2-0 and need Miami to have a rough week—which isn’t out of the question considering they have to go to SMU and host Louisville. Virginia could also make things interesting going 0-2 but as they see Wake Forest and Virginia Tech, they seem safe at the two spot.
What do you think? Let us know in the comments below.
