A 4-2 homestand against two of the best teams in the National League has put some wind behind the Mariners’ sails. Over their last 15 games, they’re 8-7 against some pretty tough competition. From here through the rest of the season, the Mariners face either teams directly competing against them in the playoff race (TOR, BOS, TEX, HOU) or teams who are on pace to lose at least 98 games this year (ATH, LAA, COL). For those still holding onto hope, this soft schedule to finish off the season has been
the guiding light; beat up on a bunch of weak teams and win just enough head-to-head games against those two division rivals to eke out the division in September. It starts with an East Coast road trip through Toronto and Boston.
After their deep postseason runs last year, both the Mariners and Blue Jays have suffered through shockingly similar seasons. They’re separated by half a game in the standings right now and both teams have started to play a little better recently, though it might be too little too late for the Jays. Toronto has continued to be plagued by injuries and its superstars haven’t been able to carry the team through the summer. The team traded away a bunch of impending free agents at the trade deadline — Kevin Gausman, Daulton Varsho, and Jeff Hoffman are out — but they also looked towards the future by acquiring José Soriano and Spencer Arrighetti.
Vladito’s struggles this year have been bewildering; his contact quality has taken a massive hit despite swinging just as hard as he has in the past. He simply can’t square up the ball right now and it’s driving his offensive production into the ground. The one guy who is hitting well right now is Alejandro Kirk. He missed more than two months of the season with a fractured finger and it took him a while to get his bat going after returning in mid June. Since the All-Star break, he has posted a 152 wRC+, easily the highest mark on the team in that period. The rest of the Jays’ postseason heroes from last year haven’t been able to keep it up this season; Ernie Clement has a 96 wRC+, Nathan Lukes is a hair higher at 98, and Addison Barger only played in nine games between two major injuries.
Probable Pitchers
Updated Stuff+ Explainer
- Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters
From a previous series preview:
Dylan Cease was the Blue Jays’ headlining acquisition this past offseason when he signed a seven-year, $210 million free agent contract just before Thanksgiving. He’s long been one of baseball’s best strikeout artists, though all those punchouts come with some spotty command. He’s usually able to make it work because he can just work out of any trouble he gets into by avoiding contact altogether, but he can also be prone to big blowups from time to time if his command really slips. He primarily relies on a hard fastball and a nasty slider as his out pitches. He’s increased the usage of his changeup this year and it’s been nearly unhittable; the whiff rate on his offspeed pitch is over 50%!
Cease is one of the two favorites to win the AL Cy Young award. He’s been absolutely dominant throughout the entire season. Back in July when he faced the Mariners, he held them scoreless over seven innings, striking out nine while allowing just four baserunners.
From a previous series preview:
José Soriano is a weird pitcher. He throws extremely hard, he has three pitches with elite whiff rates, and his groundball rate is among the highest in baseball. Last year, his ERA outpaced his FIP by more than half a run. This year, the script is flipped; his ERA is nearly a full run lower than his FIP. Maybe he read my profile of his issues from last summer because, all of a sudden, he’s striking out a bunch more batters. He’s reduced the usage of his sinker in favor of his four-seamer and splitter, but his command hasn’t improved with the pitch mix change. The result is more punchouts, but also a lower groundball rate, a high walk rate, and more damage on contact allowed.
Soriano was traded to the Blue Jays at the trade deadline, an interesting move made for the future at the same time the team was selling off some of their expendable parts. The Mariners are well acquainted with him from his time with the Angels, but he’s only faced them once this season; he allowed three runs in five innings while striking out nine back in June.
After helping the Blue Jays reach the World Series last year, Max Scherzer staved off retirement for one more go around with Toronto. His age-41 season has been marred by a few injuries, limiting him to just 12 starts. They haven’t been good starts either. It’s pretty clear his arsenal just isn’t good enough anymore and batters are happy to tee off on his diminished stuff. For the first time in his long career, his strikeout rate is sitting below 20% and his walk rate is sitting above 10%. It’s an ugly combination and it’s the reason why his ERA is sitting above seven right now.
The Big Picture:
The Astros kept pace with the Mariners after beating the Yankees on Thursday and winning that series in New York; they’ll head across town to face the Mets this weekend. The Rangers lost some ground after dropping the final two games of their series against the White Sox this week and face a tough challenge this weekend as they travel to Milwaukee.
In the Wild Card race, the Guardians have won seven straight and nine of their last 11 to put a sliver of daylight between them and the rest of the field. They host the hot-hitting Royals this weekend. Elsewhere, the Orioles play in Sacramento while the Twins host the White Sox.
