It is the last week of club football before the international break and we’re here for it.
Bayern Munich, in their last game before the break, faced Union Berlin in the Allianz Arena. Featuring in the multicolor Oktoberfest kits, Bayern fielded their best to face a team that knows exactly how to make trouble. However, the game did not go as Union planned — this was a truly Bavarian affair. Bayern won the game 7-0 with a hattrick from Michael Olise, a brace from Harry Kane and one goals each from Jamal
Musiala and Ismael Saibari. Here are the observations from the win.
Warning: lots of numbers incoming.
Maximum security?
Every year, Union Berlin plays some form of low-block football that forces Bayern into unpleasant situations. This year too, Union attempted to build a maximum security holding in the middle of the pitch. But unlike most years where the Bavarians would struggle and suffocate in their press. This year, it was different.
The centrally placed block meant that nothing could virtually even breathe through the centre. It was intended to hold a high-value player like Kane, and hoped to stunt any chances Bayern had at attacking. Even with all the possession in the world, if it were to simply be recycled over and over in one area, it would ideally get Bayern zero goals. Union hoped to simply pick the ball off this setup when they had an attacking chance and move from there. Facing Manuel Neuer is a gargantuan task, but it was by far easier than going head-to-head and playing attacking football against Bayern.
In theory, this was the perfect maximum security prison, but is there really such a thing as maximum security? There could always be a…
Prison break
And that is exactly what happened.
Union congested the centre and forgot the wings. That is what happened.
After the first few games of this season, the performances of Luis Díaz and Michael Olise were heavily questioned. They were operating in what was a partly unfamiliar tactical setting — Bayern was undergoing tactical overhauls after all. Bayern saw their attacking output drop, and while this did not bode well, the assumption was that over time, players would adjust and the numbers would come back up. To put into perspective how bad things got, the Colombia manager gave Lucho time off from international duty.
However, the better solution to this was to just return to what works— letting Musiala, Díaz and Olise run the show.
Putting Jamal Musiala centrally in a jammed maximum security prison is asking for trouble. Union learnt that a little too late for their own good. Musiala doesn’t function in a fixed position, he moves within both the horizontal and vertical lanes. And most importantly, the youngster thrives in narrow tight spaces. As a consequence of his movements, if even one player stepped out of their position, that was space for him. You could enforce a low-block as much as you wanted and still cannot count for anomalies like Musiala. The numbers speak for him — he won 15 duels. The maximum among both teams.
Similarly, both wingers are their own kind of problem. In Union’s perspective, letting the wings run them over wasn’t exactly their choice, but they had to see it anyway. Winning a 1v1 battle against Olise is not exactly the easiest task. Against Díaz? Good luck trying to defend both him and Davies in one go.
Union Berlin unfortunately created three dynamic problems, and with all those problems happening simultaneously, they had no way about it. And these players also think…
The laws of the universe are optional
This team has no respect for the laws of the universe. How else do you explain that Jamal Musiala scored a goal with three percent probability? How else do we explain Harry Kane’s two goals? He had a total of 23 touches the whole game and that did not stop him from scoring a goal apart from the penalty.
But the man of the hour is Michael Olise. From a total of six shots, five were on-target, and he made three goals out of it. His xG was 1.11, and what does he make out of that? Three goals. The other numbers are just as incredible. 18 ground duels, three tackles with a whopping 86% pass accuracy. Olise is in every form a statistical anomaly, who has declared the math useless.
An interesting fact, not to do with the game itself, is that statistically, Olise is in the 90+ percentile for goals, shots attempted, touches and chance creation compared to all other attacking midfielders and wingers.
And as for the team itself? The stats certainly are not saying Bayern lucked out. Union are leading on all the defensive numbers. The stats in fact, say that Bayern picked their territory wisely and annihilated Union by creating multiple vital scoring opportunities and finishing it an ungodly rate. 23 shots, of which 15 were on target and seven turned into goals? The xG makes this incredible — it was a mere 3.77. Bayern were not expected to score more than 4. And the xGOT, which accounts for other factors such as shot position, still only delivered a meager 3.54 — even lower than the xG. If it were not for Frederik Rønnow who made six saves.
The chance creation itself is not anomalous — it is the result of a solid game with fantastic individual performances, and is very textbook-Bayern. It is the finishing that no numbers could have anticipated.
Concluding thoughts
Union came in with ideas that were not particularly wrong. A high-press while sitting deep and defending the centre is frankly, in theory, the best available option. If all would have gone well, they planned to win the ball via pressure, transition and attack, before Bayern could react defensively. However, if the press is beaten, there is no contingency — all your players have pre-assigned roles and if they step out, it creates more space for the opposition to work with.
Musiala’s goal is a fantastic example — Bayern won the ball from the press, Davies came down the left and found Musiala at the edge of the box. A goal down? No problem, Union will just have to play a bit more risky. But when the numbers keep rising? One becomes two, two becomes three, and now your defensive structure is in bits. Union did not necessarily crumble, but there is only so much a team can do being 3+ goals down.
Every choice had a trade-off. And it was just their unlucky day that Bayern decided to put up an in-form performance.
This game in every form, is an anomaly. The biggest win Bayern have had against this side? 5-1. And they have had multiple managerial changes, while preserving most of their tactical structure, but not all of it. Nearly every year, Bayern have faced the same low-block, and not necessarily the high press, which is more an addition by the current Union manager. So, technically, as the game has gotten tougher, so have Bayern.
Bayern is a team that is made for pressure. And they proved that seven times tonight for 90 minutes straight.
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