After the Philadelphia Eagles’ utterly predictable playoff loss on Sunday, one sentiment I commonly saw was that the Phillies needed to sign Bo Bichette to help raise the spirits of the city’s sports fans.
It still hasn’t happened, but that’s not terribly surprising. As we’ve seen, baseball’s free agency period is far different than other sports. Instead of a flurry of activity in the early
days, baseball’s offseason is usually a slow trickle of signings. For instance, the Cubs agreeing to terms with Alex Bregman filled the quota of big moves for a few weeks.
January is also somewhat of a no-man’s land in terms of free agent leverage. Early on in free agency, the players have most of the power. Teams are looking to fill big holes and make splash signings. Come late February, teams gain more leverage. Spring Training begins, teams start to talk themselves into just going in with what they have, and unsigned players get antsy. Once pitchers and catchers report to camp, you start to see free agents settle for shorter-term “prove it” deals.
But for now, there’s a slew of big-to-medium names still available. Harrison Bader is a good example. It feels like the market has broken well for him, yet he’s still out there, because all of the reservations that the Phillies had about giving him an expensive deal are likely shared by other teams. Sure, he was great for them after the trade, but are those two months more representative than the previous eight and a half years of his career? Especially since he’ll be turning 32 this coming season.
The Phillies might have been able to take better advantage of this slow shifting of leverage, but they jumped the gun, signing Adolis Garcia to a $10 million deal in December. That doesn’t seem like a lot of money, but then you remember the following:
- The Phillies are very close to the next luxury tax threshold
- The Phillies seem very averse to crossing that threshold
- Garcia hasn’t been good the past two seasons
In a perfect world, the Phillies would remedy this problem by trading away Nick Castellanos and freeing up some money, but once again, other teams see the same thing the Phillies can. According to WAR, Castellanos was one of the worst players in the sport in 2025, and the Phillies have made no secret that they have no intention of having him on their team in 2026.
Why would any team even give up a bag of baseballs for Castellanos when he’s likely going to be released outright, and they can pick him up for pennies. Sure, you run the risk of another team signing him, but I don’t see any team kicking themselves for missing out on the opportunity to have Castellanos on their roster. In fact, the Phillies might actually have to give up prospects to get a deal done.
Perhaps this will all work out in the Phillies’ favor. Maybe both they and Bichette agree that he’s an excellent fit for their lineup, and they come to terms. And then as he remains unsigned, J.T. Realmuto will realize that no team is willing to offer him a big payday, and his best option is to return to the Phillies on a below-market deal. And hey, if they’re willing to take a “prove it” deal, maybe Bader or Ranger Suarez can come back too! (What’s one year of going over that next luxury tax threshold, right?)
It’s very unlikely that all that breaks the Phillies way, and I’d still put money on Realmuto being a Phillie in 2026 with Bichette elsewhere. But as we meander through this “no man’s land,” it’s fun to dream for a bit.
