Is Justin Champagnie the Real Deal? The Machine Gives Wizards Forward’s NBA Comps

Okay, at the end of the last article, I wrote that I’d run the Statistical Doppelganger Machine on Bilal Coulibaly, completely forgetting I’d already done it. Senior moment, I guess.

At this point, there are maybe three more players I’m interested in running through The Machine. Today, let’s talk Justin Champagnie.

For reasons that were never quite clear to me, Champagnie was not drafted. He’d been a reasonably productive player at Pitt, and I had him rated as a late first or early second rounder in

YODA. Not getting drafted put him into an early career fight for opportunities, and he may have found a home with the Wizards.

He started last season on a two-way contract, made the most of chances to play, got a nice payday when the team signed him to a multi-year deal, and then continued to play well in an expanded role when they traded Kyle Kuzma. This may sound like a hot take, but Champagnie was better than Kuzma last season.

At the risk of converting that “hot take” into a scorcher, Champagnie’s 2024-24 was better than any season of Kuzma’s career.

That said, while Champagnie was pretty good last season (PPA: 114), the sample was still small enough (1,340 minutes) to still keep him in “wait and see” mode.

For those new to the series, the Statistical Doppelganger Machine takes a reference season (in this case, Champagnie last year) and compares it to every other player season since 1977-78. The Machine uses 14 box score and data categories, including age, but does not include position or height.

Here are Champagnie’s comps:

Santi Aldama, 2022-23, Memphis Grizzlies | Age 22 — Talented and promising forward who seems likely to get a bigger role on a retooled Grizzlies roster.
Patrick Patterson, 2013-14, Sacramento Kings and Toronto Raptors | Age 24 — Another talented forward who was much coveted by stat goobers around the league. He never translated that talent into production, primarily because he got hurt so much.
Donte DiVincenzo, 2019-20, Milwaukee Bucks | Age 23 — Would never have picked DiVincenzo as a comp for Champagnie, but I love it. Competitive, skilled, tough. DiVincenzo had a couple above average seasons with the Bucks (including this one) had his best season (136 PPA) with the Knicks, and then backslid a bit with Minnesota last year.
Oshae Brissett, 2021-22, Indiana Pacers | Age 23 — Brissett is a versatile and skilled wing, and while I think Champagnie is more forward than wing, it’s directionally the right kind of comp. Champagnie might already be better — this was Brissett’s best season (88 PPA). Champagnie posted a 114 last season.
Caleb Martin, 2021-22, Miami Heat | Age 26 — Another undrafted wing/forward, though a bit smaller than Champagnie and with less collegiate production.
Dorrell Wright, 2009-10, Miami Heat | Age 24 — Apparently, Champagnie would be a great fit for Heat Culture. That said, it never really clicked for Wright with the Heat. His best years came in Golden State and Philadelphia…starting the season after this one. By the way, I somehow missed the news that Dorell Wright’s brother is former Wizards great Delon Wright.
Mike Muscala, 2017-19, Atlanta Hawks | Age 26 — A jump-shooting backup center? Yeah, that’s fair. Champagnie doesn’t have the height to pretend to play in the middle, but the production patterns are somewhat similar.
Bruce Brown, 2020-21, Brooklyn Nets | Age 24 — This was Brown’s first year with the Nets and the best season of his career. Head coach Steve Nash had him playing a kind of “power guard” position, and Brown crashed the boards, scored inside, defended all over the place and was just generally good. Two years later, he contributed to the Denver Nuggets winning a championship.
Pascal Siakam, 2017-18, Toronto Raptors | Age 23 — Oh yeah, inject this into my veins! Siakam was a late first who worked hard, got better and made two All-NBA teams (second and third team, respectively). This comp season was his last coming off the bench. The following season, his production jumped to 158, and it’s stayed in the “very good” range since.
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, 2021-22, Oklahoma City Thunder | Age 21 — The Machine gives and The Machine takes away. Robinson-Earl seems to have some ability, but through four NBA seasons seems more of a journeyman backup…if he stays in the league at all.