If you’re looking on the bright side, we’re at least writing this about three months later this season than we were last season. For about 35-45 games, the Sixers gave their fans enough of a reason to tune in. But the last five to six weeks of the 2025-2026 season have been far from fruitful. Not only have the Sixers lost a lot of games since the beginning of February, but they’ve lost players to injuries and suspension and have lost a lot of their fans with a perplexing trade deadline as well.
With
Philly’s next game likely to be another loss in the Motor City against the Eastern Conference leading Detroit Pistons, now feels like a good time to entertain a scenario we haven’t really discussed all season. Are the Sixers best off losing as many games as possible in the regular season’s final month, bowing out quickly in the play-in tournament, and participating in this year’s draft lottery?
Granted, it’s highly unlikely Philadelphia could lose enough to fall below the play-in tournament cut line, so even a bad final month of the regular season would still have the Sixers playing beyond the season’s 82nd game. However, as many know by now, jumps up in the lottery from play-in tournament losers into the top four have happened a few times in recent years.
In 2019, the NBA debuted its new lottery in which the ping-pong balls determined the first four picks instead of the first three. This was part of an unsuccessful effort to curb tanking as the league thought that more randomness in the lottery would increase competitive balance. Since the reform, there have been seven draft lotteries. In three of them, a team from outside the league’s 10 worst records has jumped into the top four of the draft order. That includes the last two lotteries in which play-in tournament losers Atlanta and Dallas won the first pick in the 2024 and 2025 drafts respectively.
To be very clear, we’re still talking about approximately a 10% chance that Philadelphia drafts in the top four in 2026 which would again allow the Sixers to keep their first-rounder and not send it to the Thunder. But haven’t we all resigned ourselves to the fact that there’s a 0% chance of a deep playoff run coming? It feels like a dart worth throwing if you ask me.
Of course, the elephant in the room here will be if Joel Embiid is OK with being shut down. At this rate, it seems reasonable that Tyrese Maxey may not play for the rest of the regular season. Does anyone even care how many games Paul George plays after his suspension? But Embiid went public with comments before the trade deadline hoping that the front office would add to the roster and give him the best chance possible to make a deep playoff run given he may not have many chances left. We all saw that happened at the deadline.
Embiid certainly isn’t thinking about a 10% chance the Sixers draft in the top four this summer. If you’re a big draft nerd too, you might be tracking the Houston first-rounder which the Sixers now own via the Jared McCain trade. There’s still a world in which the Sixers get out of the play-in tournament, send a pick in the late teens to Oklahoma City, and the Houston pick lands in the mid 20s and this whole thing is water under the bridge.
Perhaps this is all just one sad pity piece on what this season has turned into. There were certainly times this season in which the Sixers gave the fans reason to be excited. Heck, there’s a reason there was a sentiment leading up to the trade deadline that they could be a buyer and really make a run in a wide-open Eastern Conference this spring. But those hopes are crushed now, and the Sixers are back to churning out fringe NBA players in their rotation on a regular basis. So yeah, maybe they should just exit early in the play-in tournament and then we can all ask ourselves how lucky are we feeling on lottery night yet again.
