The Hunt for Red Hedges
– by Mario Crescibene
IN APRIL OF 2026, SHORTLY AFTER COACH VOGT ASSUMED COMMAND, RUMORS OF A SECRET CATCHER-CLASS SUB EMERGED FROM THE DEPTHS.
THEY CALLED IT THE RED HEDGES: A VESSEL WITH OFFENSIVE CAPABILITIES THE CENTRAL DIVISION HAD PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT IMPOSSIBLE.
THE RUMORS SPAWNED A LAKE ERIE–WIDE SEARCH. INTELLIGENCE SUGGESTED THE SUBMARINE POSSESSED FIREPOWER UNLIKE ANYTHING SEEN IN YEARS, SURPASSING ITS PREVIOUSLY ASSUMED BALLISTIC OUTPUT.
BUT ACCORDING TO REPEATED STATEMENTS BY BOTH THE AMERICAN
AND NATIONAL LEAGUES, NOTHING OF WHAT YOU’RE ABOUT TO READ… EVER HAPPENED.
INT. SUBMARINE COMMAND CENTER
Rows of monitors glow in the darkness. Green sonar screens pulse. A PETTY OFFICER (early 20s, sharp eyes on the display) sits rigid at his station. An ENSIGN manages communications. The space hums with focused tension as both scan their monitors for any sign of the Red Hedges.
The CAPTAIN (late 40s, weathered command presence) strides briskly in from the corridor. His gaze sweeps over the screens.
CAPTAIN: Alright Petty Officer. Talk to me. What do we have on the Red Hedges? Tell me what I’m lookin’ at here on the monitor.
PETTY OFFICER: Sir, we’ve got the signal. What you’re looking at on the display is a 95% confidence interval for a Bernoulli Process — essentially a stochastic random walk for the Red Hedges. Assuming a career average of .186 —
CAPTAIN: What in the shoot does any of that mean?
The Captain leans closer squinting at the screen.
CAPTAIN: (CONT’D) Son, my old man was a coal miner from West Virginia. He wasn’t rich enough to send me to Harvard like your daddy was. You’re babbling about 95% confidence intervals, a Bernoulli Process, and some “stoic random walks!”
PETTY OFFICER: My father was a school janitor, sir. Worked hard his whole life.
CAPTAIN: By God, he did, son. And any hard working man deserves respect in my book. But we’re burning daylight here. What in blazes is a random walk? You talkin’ about when you lot go on leave and get drunk when we are at port and then come stumbling back at the break a’ dawn?
PETTY OFFICER: Yes, sir. Random walks — actually a drunk walking home is a perfect example, sir. Imagine a drunk man on a grid leaving the bar. At each intersection, he chooses a direction at random. Left, right, or forward.
CAPTAIN: That drunk bastard is gonna wander forever!
PETTY OFFICER: Yes and no, sir. The mathematics proves he’ll eventually find his way home, although it may take awhile. Even though every step is random, the math says he will get there. And we can calculate exactly how long it takes, on average, given his starting distance from his house.
CAPTAIN: That’s fascinating, Petty Officer, but what does a drunk stumbling home have anything to do with hunting Red Hedges?
PETTY OFFICER: Let me simplify the display, sir. What you are looking at here on this display is the 95% confidence interval for the current submarine, using a career batting average of .186. That creates the Sonar Stable Range we are monitoring right now. This shows us where the current sub is likely to be, and where he might be displaying greater fire power than we had previously assumed.
The Petty Officer points to the green dashed line on the screen.
PETTY OFFICER: Let me explain it this way, sir. A coin theoretically has 50% of coming up heads. But in reality, there’s natural variation. If you flip it five times, there is a chance that based on random chance you might get five heads in a row. The probability is 0.5⁵ = 0. 03125 = 3%. Unlikely, but it happens.
CAPTAIN: How in the world does flipping a dang coin have anything to do with this graph, officer?!
PETTY OFFICER: Well, sir, with a career baseline of .186, natural variation means the sub we are currently tracking could have a batting average anywhere within the Sonar Stable Range displaying the 95% confidence interval.
CAPTAIN: And where is he, now Petty Officer? Do we have a bearing on ‘em?
PETTY OFFICER: Right here, sir. He’s currently at 30 at bats and hitting .267.
CAPTAIN: And what does it mean if that point falls in the band? You’re telling me we’re tracking an ordinary sub, and not the Red Hedges?
PETTY OFFICER: Precisely, sir. At 30 at-bats, even a .267 clip isn’t enough to prove it’s the Red Hedges because it still falls within the stable zone. But as the sample size grows with more at bats, the stable zone narrows. If this vessel maintains that .267 pace until 100 at-bats, it will pierce the ceiling of the 95% confidence interval.
CAPTAIN: So if this catcher-class sub we’re tracking continues at .267 pace and reaches 100 at bats, you’re telling me that will mean he has left the stable zone and…
PETTY OFFICER: And that he’s showing significantly more offensive power than his career average, sir. If this sub moves outside the stable range…
CAPTAIN: Then we have the Red Hedges!
PETTY OFFICER: Then we have the Red Hedges, sir. Take a look at what that would look like.
CAPTAIN: By god, that does fall outside the stable range, doesn’t it!
ENSIGN: Sir, we have a new data point! The catcher-class sub just had another game and went 1-for-3, making solid contract in each at bat, sir. The display is about to update.
PETTY OFFICER: You see can see the new reading now, sir. His average increased after his offensive output this game, but you can clearly see that he still falls within the stable range.
CAPTAIN: So tell me this Petty Officer. If he is at 33 at bats right, hitting .273, what kind of a hitting streak would the sub need in order to move it outside the stable range?
PETTY OFFICER: Take a look, sir. Here you can see where the sub is currently located. And if he were to get 3 consecutive hits, it would take him outside the 95% confidence interval.
CAPTAIN: So in one game we could potentially confirm we have found the Red Hedges.
ENSIGN: Sir, you should look at this. I’ve been tracking on base percentage, and with the recent update… well take a look.
ENSIGN: You see, sir? Even with the surge in hits, his on-base percentage is still lagging behind. He’s not getting enough walks to match the descriptions of the Red Hedges. The Sonar Stable Range is holding firm because he isn’t getting on base enough.
CAPTAIN: Speak English, Ensign. Is it the Red Hedges or not?
ENSIGN: The signal is noisy, sir. We’re still limited by a small sample size. At this rate, he won’t hit the 100 at-bat threshold until the All-Star Break.
CAPTAIN: We don’t have until July! What do you suggest, Ensign?
ENSIGN: We have to play him more to get his at bats to 100, sir. Once we get to that sample size, we should be able to see definitive evidence as to whether this sub is demonstrating offensive striking power of the Red Hedges or not. But he maintains his current bearing until 100 at bats, then…
CAPTAIN: Then we have the Red Hedges!
