The Syracuse Orange (11-5) have just begun their ACC campaign, and seem to still be struggling to form some consistency.
The Orange have seemingly struggled a little with winning these close home matchups,
as a loss to Clemson stings a lot in what could have been a huge opportunity in conference play. However, it seems like with the return of Donnie Freeman, Syracuse could be beginning to get back on their feet, as they have handled their last two ACC opponents pretty easily on the road. As we keep going into ACC play, now seems like a good time to look at how the Orange stand in metrics.
NET
Syracuse has jumped up to 67th in the NET rankings, good for 11th in the ACC. The Orange went up 11 spots after the Pitt game. In terms of Syracuse opponents this year, Tennessee ranks inside the top 30 still at 27, and Clemson is right behind them at 28. Hofstra is down to 82, and all three of Syracuse’s Vegas opponents are sitting in the top 25.
Syracuse now has a 1-4 record in Quad 1 games, a 1-0 record in Quad 2 games, a 1-1 record in Quad 3 games, and an 8-0 record in Quad 4 games. Syracuse is still climbing up the rankings, but it still looks like a few more quality wins will be needed if this team wants to find itself in the tournament conversation.
The top ten teams in the ACC by NET are Duke (#4), Virginia (#16), Louisville (#17), UNC (#22), SMU (#24), Clemson (#28), NC State (#31), Miami (#33), Virginia Tech (#61), and Wake Forest (#62). Syracuse will face a tougher finish to ACC play so the next two games are critical.
KenPom
In KenPom, Syracuse ranks 60th, good for 9th in the ACC. Their adjusted offensive rating is ranked in the top 100 at 95th, while their defense is in the top 50 at 48th. This puts Syracuse at 12th in the ACC in offense and 8th in the ACC for defense
Their strength of schedule is ranked at 140th in the nation, although they have not faced too many high powered offenses, as their SOS ranks 266th in offensive efficiency. It will be interesting to see how this team fares when placed up against some stronger offensive squads. This also puts Syracuse at 14th in the ACC in strength of schedule.
According to KenPom, the ACC is a very top-heavy conference, as the top 8 teams before Syracuse are all ranked in the top 40, with the next closest being the Orange at 60. Right behind the Orange are Wake Forest and Virginia Tech, at 62 and 66, respectively.
Bart Torvik
As usual this season, Syracuse sits the highest in the Bart Torvik rankings, sitting at #52, also good for 9th in the ACC. However, Bart Torvik has the biggest descrepancy between the Orange offense and defense out of any metric, as they sit at 102nd in adjusted offensive efficiency, and all the way up in 34th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Looking at all these numbers, it seems like all of them are bringing the Orange up quite a lot, even after a rough home loss to Clemson. It seems like big road wins against some ACC competition has led to them jumping up a lot of rankings. The offense is still not great, although it has shown some improvement recently in these metrics, while the defense has mostly stagnated.
Looking at the BT numbers for the rest of the ACC, one of the potential reasons why the Orange rank so high is the high ranking of Clemson, as they rank inside the top 25. Looking behind the Orange, it is much the same teams that were behind them in KenPom, as themselves alongside VT and Wake have found themselves in similar spots in many of these rankings.
Torvik gives Syracuse a 22% chance to make the NCAA Tournament.
Potential Resume-building opportunities
The next couple of games should be a few more easy ones for the Orange against much lower-ranked opponents than them; however, going past that, we start seeing some more difficult teams on the schedule. Teams like Miami and NC State coming up in late January have shown themselves to be some quality teams, that could be some great wins for Syracuse’s resume if they can pull them off. The full ACC schedule breakdown is as follows:
- Q1: Eight games, two home and six away
- Q2: Four games, all home
- Q3: Three games, two home and one away
- Q4: No games
As you can see, this schedule will not be getting any easier for the Orange. They play more Quad One games than any other Quadrant combines, and six of those games will be played away from home. With the state of the schedule, it is extremely important that if we want any shot at the tournament, we win all of the Q2 and Q3 games, as well as our two home Q1 matchups against SMU and UNC. If we can’t win those, then we will have to make up for it in a hostile road environment against some great competition.
Bracketology
The ACC is continuing to have a solid year in terms of bracketology, although the Orange dont seem to be making any of the lists.
ESPN’s bracketology update sees 8 ACC teams make the field, these being Miami, Clemson, UNC, NC State, Louisville, Duke, Virginia, and SMU. Virginia Tech and Stanford also find themselves on the next four out list.
Jon Rothsteins breakdown has the same teams listed as ESPN, although with a small difference, being that Virginia Tech lands on his first four out, not his next four out
The Orange still don’t seem to be on too many national radars; however, there are some solid games coming up against teams like Virginia Tech that could let them change this.
Syracuse will attempt to keep this win streak going as they host Florida State at 9 pm tomorrow.
