The Seattle Seahawks are gearing up for their post-bye week run toward a return to the playoffs and a return to the top of the NFC West throne. They’re 5-2 and hold a tiebreaker edge on the Los Angeles Rams and a half-game advantage on the San Francisco 49ers, which tells you that this is likely going to be a photo finish for the division.
While Seattle rates impressively in terms of broader advanced metrics, there is still plenty of room for improvement, particularly on offense. I’d like to think
the Seahawks haven’t played their best football yet. Here are three key areas they need to work on for the stretch run.
The inconsistent running game
This goes without saying. Seattle’s passing attack may be super reliant on one receiver, but it works until further notice. At the moment, the run game doesn’t function consistently regardless of whether Kenneth Walker or Zach Charbonnet is the running back. Walker has been the more effective back by a good margin, whereas Charbonnet has racked up red zone touchdowns but is averaging under three yards per rush. The main culprit is the run blocking, which has not been effective, and opposing defenses are stacking the box at the highest rate in the league. And yet, Ken Walker has more explosive rushes this season than all of last season, so there have been some successes to point to.
I’m not saying the Seahawks need to have an elite rushing attack, but it can be better than this. They can’t be last in the NFL in EPA/play running outside the tackles, and they must lean into the strengths of their backs more effectively. I’d like to see them run inside the tackles more often, as they’re considerably better (without being terrific) operating those plays but utilize them at a much lower rate than anything to do with outside zone.
Staying on schedule
Well, two games ago the Seahawks were an above-average unit on third downs, something they’ve rarely been over the last 20 years (without exaggeration). They’ve plummeted to 27th after a combined 3/26 stretch over the wins against the Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars. This clearly has nothing to do with sacks, because Sam Darnold has been downed just nine times all season. The issue is a familiar one for Seattle: they are in third-and-long too much.
According to Stathead, the Seahawks are near the top of the league in average distance to go on third downs, which is a tale as old as time. What compounds the problem is being a run-heavy team on early downs while not being a good running team.
I am not sure if this is being done as a means to protect the offensive line and therefore Sam Darnold by limiting the pass attempts, but until the run game is not near the bottom in early down efficiency, they’re going to have to be more proactive with winning on early downs through the pass. I think Sam has done more than enough to trust in him to carry a little bit more of the workload on offense, especially with the offensive line not being a total sieve in pass pro for a change.
Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers
After that ridiculous set of giveaways versus the Houston Texans, the Seahawks are dead last in turnover differential (-15) in home games since Mike Macdonald became head coach. They’re -5 to start this year at Lumen Field and they’re -4 on the season, which is not conducive to deep playoff contention unless you have a unicorn like Patrick Mahomes at quarterback and Andy Reid as head coach. Their regular misadventures fumbling the ball while sprinkling in some disastrous gimmick play have to stop.
While it was easy to look at last year and blame Geno Smith, Geno’s turnovers were curiously only the interceptions. He had no lost fumbles on the season, but the slack was picked up by DK Metcalf, Pharaoh Brown, and the gruesome twosome of Dee Williams and Laviska Shenault Jr. Geno’s still turning it over a ton elsewhere, literally everyone I’ve listed who lost a fumble is no longer on the team, and yet the same problems persist.
On the flip side, the Seahawks defense is getting interceptions but have yet to force or recover a fumble. I think that will self-correct in due time. I’m more concerned about carelessness by the Seahawks offense, which has been a consistent problem under Macdonald and needs to be a non-negotiable for correction.
