I saw Dane Dunning pitch in the minors in the pre-COVID times. He was facing a decent Southern League lineup. And they wanted nothing to do with his slider. It was an (untrue) three-outcome pitch: either
a pop-up, soft groundout, or a whiff. He looked every bit the first-round pick from 2016. He had a decent two years in Texas, but it’s been a minute since he’s been that well regarded.
How acquired
The Braves placed AJ Smith-Shawver, Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach on the 60-day Injured List in the space of five weeks. Grant Holmes followed shortly thereafter. So the Braves figurately had a “pitching help wanted” posted on the wall outside Truist Park. There were suddenly many innings to soak up. As part of that effort, Dane Dunning was acquired by the Braves on July 18 from Texas for RHP José Ruiz and cash.
What were the expectations?
Dunning hadn’t started since September 2024, which was actually more recent than Joey Wentz’ last MLB start. But the Braves had him in mind to pitch out of the bullpen and see what happened. His season FIP- since 2021 were mostly trending down: 91 in 2021, 111 in 2022, a brief reprieve to 99 in 2023, and then way up to 126 in 2024, when he was relieved of his starting role. (The xFIP- was 90 in 2021, then 102 in each of 2022 and 2023, then up to 108 in 2024.) With his pedigree as a top prospect and a career 5.4 fWAR in 477 2/3 innings in 2020-2023, the Braves were probably hoping that his 2024 was a bump in the road. But job one for the Braves was soak up some innings. Get him a spot, get him some innings, and then we’ll talk, was likely the approach.
Dunning hadn’t really done much of anything for the Rangers prior to the deal, pitching five appearances spanning 10 2/3 innings with an 84/129/130 line (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-) that did not bode particularly well for his success, but was overshadowed by his poor 2024 in any case. Dunning’s central projection was basically an innings-eating swingman who wouldn’t be replacement level, but given that the Rangers had no real interest in deploying him (and traded him for nothing), everyone was pretty much taking the under on that central estimate.
2025 results
Not great, Bob. Typically you would like your relievers to have at least one really good pitch and a decent second offering, but there wasn’t really anything to work with here. His 2025 ended up at an unfortunate 167/123/105 splattering over 20 2/3 innings. The 21 strikeouts over those innings is playable, the rest really isn’t it. Like many of his relief teammates, he was brutalized by HR/FB, running a rate of nearly 30 percent with the Braves. Sorry for being scrimped into the misery party, Mr. Dunning. It’s how you finished with -0.1 fWAR for the second consecutive season.
He was optioned to the Gwinnett Stripers three times — that was basically the extent of his utility, a guy to heroically take one for the team then take the shuttle to Gwinnett. He was dropped from the 40-man roster after the season. He elected free agency.
What went right?
He had two really good outings for the Braves. How about striking out Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton in the same half-inning?
He pitched the last three innings in the July 20th game versus the Yankees at home, giving up one run and striking out those two. If you remember that weekend, number one they really need depth in the bullpen. And two, try to forget that weekend outside of those strikeouts.
His other good outing was versus the his up-until-very-recently teammates on the Rangers on July 26th. He definitely had the slider working that day. Just ask Adolis Garcia. He pitched a clean two innings with four strikeouts in a tie game, though Raisel Iglesias and Enyel De Los Santos would combine to blow it up later anyway.
What went wrong?
He was saddled with 13 runs in ten innings as a Brave. July 31st versus the Reds was a lot of it, but unfortunately not all of it.
Y’all remember this game? The Braves were down three runs by the third inning. They clawed those back and picked up eight runs in the eighth inning. Then they vomited that lead right back, giving those up eight runs. The Braves won this game on two well-placed fly balls to score the Manfred runner. But like most of 2025, the Braves made it harder than it had to be.
Giving up five of those eighth-inning runs was Dunning. Oh no, Dane. Basically, he came on with an eight-run lead, there were two ball-in-play singles, then a three-run homer, and then two more ball-in-play singles. That was it for him, but Dylan Lee also got dunked for two more singles and then a game-tying three-run homer. Whoops.
2026 outlook
As mentioned before, Dunning elected free agency after the season. He could return, but probably not. I’d like to think there is a spot for him somewhere in baseball. His talent is definitely worth taking another look at in Spring Training. But the Braves were victim to the ol’ HR/FB monster this year, and Dunning was definitely visited by him as well.
At this point, he kind of looks (and projects like) a guy who might pitch like a fourth starter in limited, curated doses, but isn’t going to be given the chance to pitch all that often for a big league team given back-to-back poor seasons.
